At 4-3, What I Think of BYU in 2012

Offense
Brandon Doman is clearly a young Offensive Coordinator.  Through 20 games, he has yet to really establish an offensive identity.  He's gone throw-heavy, run-heavy, balanced, but yet to find anything that works, or that he's willing to stick with consistently.  Part of that has been his personnel: he has great WRs but not a guy who can throw to them.  He has a lot of "potential" RBs, but not an OL to block for them.

Doman will improve, but BYU will lose games in the process over the next season and a half.  In addition to improving as an OC, however, he needs to groom his players to continue improving.  He needs to figure out what to do with his O-Line.  Last year, he thought they were unathletic and big, so he had them lose weight, only to find out that the "increased" athleticism didn't help and replaced some of the skinnier guys with bigger, heavier ones.  He needs to pick a direction and go with it.  Part of that is losing the identity of the offense: he wanted to get the run game going with the leaner OL but he NEVER pulls any of them to take advantage of their improved speed.

Riley Nelson clearly cost the team this season.  His lack of an arm was the difference in several games.  His injury was unfortunate, but by playing through fractured vertebrae made it nearly impossible for BYU to win against Utah and Boise State.  The OL has been entirely ineffective.  Cody Hoffman has a myriad of drops.  Michael Alisa didn't look as physical as he did last year.  I think it's safe to say the TEs are the only part of the BYU O that is exceeding expectations this season, or at least my expectations.

The Offense is below average.  It was below average last year.  Doman needs to get a grip on this.  Fast.  Identity is the first step.  He needs one.

Defense
This is still clearly one of the better BYU defenses I've seen.  2006 and 1996 are the only two I have personally seen that are equivalent.  However, it's still a BYU defense.  Oregon State was the first team with any proficiency in the passing game and it's the first team to really expose BYU's perpetual weakness: the secondary.  Clearly, however, the talent level on the D is at an all-time high.  There is some depth too, so there is hope for this unit going forward to next year, even losing 4 or 5 guy significant contributors (including Kyle Van Noy, b/c I think there's little chance he sticks around for one more season).

Here, I see Bronco misevaluating some personnel as well, though he has the identity thing down (it's easier on defense, but still).  Ziggy was learning the game last season still, that's fine.  But his freakish athleticism could have made up for some of his shortcomings and he should have had a lot more experience coming into this season.  Perhaps that experience could have allowed him to make one or two more plays against Utah or Boise State and potentially changed the outcome???  Bronson Kaufusi is another one they have brought along slowly, but at least he's still a freshman and BYU can utilize his unique skillset a few more years.

BYU has only faced one good offense this season and gave up 42 points (or 35).  They don't face many more good offenses, so the D should retain its standing as a top 20, or even top 10, defense.  I suspect they can rein in ND's O to some degree, but unfortunately the BYU O can continue to give up field position and turnovers and it may not matter.

Special Teams
Bronco clearly ignored the FG unit in fall camp and it's been obvious in both kicking and blocking.  Every other unit has been doing fine, though occasionally they give up a decent return.  That happens.

Overall
Bronco and the players clearly over-rated themselves coming into the season.  The offense, even with a healthy Nelson, has left a lot to be desired.  The defense has performed extremely well but the competition hasn't been difficult.  It's still a decent team overall, but nothing to write home about.  Next season, especially if Hoffman and KVN leave early, the team is going to be worse than this year.  Let's just say BYU goes 8-4 in 2012 (though I think at this point 7-5 is also likely with three tough road games left, ND, GT, and SJSU, yes, SJSU), with a worse team and a tougher schedule next year...yikes.  BYU might join Utah in the good teams of the past struggling to make a bowl game.  Still, BYU can compete with ND this week b/c of ND's offensive ineptness, and could win the rest of the games on the schedule b/c none of those teams is unbeatable (sporting good defenses AND good offenses).

I think the state of Utah is about to become even more irrelevant in the national landscape of college football.  Utah and BYU are down this year, and next year looks like an even tougher road for both.  Utah State will always be irrelevant, unless they manage to beat BYU and Utah in the same year, win the WAC (or MWC next year), and get a big win against a BCS team.  They are well-coached for sure, but how long will that last?  People are already starting to take notice of what Gary Andersen has done in Logan.

BYU fans can look forward to the schedule in 2013, but the results won't be pretty.  The missionary age change will almost certainly have a negative impact on BYU the next two seasons, but Bronco should be able to get a handle on things after that.  Unfortunately, I think 2015 is the next year BYU can get back to pushing for 10 wins again.  I think there's some shuffling to happen in 2013 on both sides of the ball.  2014 should be a good offensive year for BYU but the D will not have the experience it needs yet with so many key players being juniors and seniors this season.

So in answer to the "what I think of BYU" question: I think it's a good program that is experiencing some growing pains as an independent.  I think it will continue a few more years.  I think, long-term, BYU will be OK.  The short-term, however, is a different story.  Doman has a long way to go.  The personnel is improving though.  By 2015, BYU turns a corner, I just hope it's not "too late" by then.