Oregon State D vs. BYU O

Oregon State D vs. BYU O
Well, BYU's offense has struggled mightily for some time now.  Riley Nelson returns and is supposedly healthy.  In the one game he played where he was healthy, BYU scored 30 points.  Granted, it was against a team that gives up an average of over 30 points/game, but still, it was one of BYU's better offensive performances in terms of yards.  So, there is hope.  Riley spreads the ball around less than pretty much every QB at BYU in the last 35 years, which is unfortunate because Oregon State is pretty bad in the secondary.  Spreading it around to more people exploits that weakness.

Oregon State has a very good run D, mixed with an atrociously bad pass defense.  Dynamic and balanced offenses can move the ball and score on them (UCLA and Arizona).  The one run-heavy offense the Beavers played struggled against (Wisconsin).  The offense with no real identity and a pathetic offensive line struggled (Washington State).  BYU's O looks a lot more like the latter one than the former three.

The biggest problem for BYU in the running game has been trying to block opponents' Defensive Ends.  Oregon State has a few that are big, strong, and fast.  That presents a problem if BYU tries to run outside.  They effectively take away the option (thankfully).  I believe BYU will have to lead with a FB or run to the TE side or a combination of both.  That means BYU has to be predictable in the running game in order to have success.  They simply cannot block Scott Crichton one-on-one.  If they double him, that's one less blocker to send to the second level to stop the Beavers active linebackers.  What I'm really saying is that I don't think BYU will have success running the ball.  Ironically, the one area I think BYU could be successful this week is in the QB Draw...Jamaal Williams may make some individual plays, but I don't expect the blocking to open up holes for him.

BYU can get the ball to the backs out of the backfield as an extension of the running game.  They can hit the TEs across the middle.  Those two things will result in positive plays.  Cody Hoffman will be covered by All Pac 12 CB Jordan Poyer.  Riley cannot stare him down.  That is a recipe for disaster.  He will throw 3 picks if he throws to Hoffman 10 times.  Use Apo and Falslev.  Use the TEs.  Use jailbreak WR screens (bubble screens won't get the job done), hit the TE and RB on screens as well.  BYU must mix it up in the passing game to be successful, especially because there is no real threat of a running game on Saturday.

I don't like the matchup at all for BYU.  I like it more than I like the matchup next week against Notre Dame, but that doesn't mean much.  Now, I do believe BYU's O can mount at least 4 scoring drives in this game (if Doman comes in with the right kind of game plan).  The real question is going to be: how much does Oregon State score b/c of BYU's offense?