Total Defense:
BYU #5, 226.6
Utah State #11, 280.8
Boise State #23, 315.5
Utah #29, 329.5
Hawaii #82, 429.3
Washington State #104, 472.2
Total Defense for USU's opponents (Utah is common opponent):
Wisconsin #39, 348.8
Colorado State #81, 427.0
UNLV #92, 446.6
Total Offense:
Utah State #40, 452.2
BYU #64, 402.0
Boise State #72, 395.0
Washington State #84, 378.6
Utah #112, 298.3
Hawaii #114, 290.0
Total Offense for USU's opponents (Utah is common opponent):
UNLV #80, 384.6
Colorado State #103, 339.8
Wisconsin #104, 309.2
This early in the year, I don't put a whole lot of stock into "per game" averages as there isn't a large enough smattering of games to make them meaningful (though they aren't always meaningful after the entire season anyways). However, it is interesting to note that Utah State represents BYU's toughest challenge to this point in the season. BYU has faced some good defenses to this point in the year, but Utah State, statistically speaking, is the best thus far. So a struggling offense (yes, three years in a row this is the feeling of Cougar fans going into this game) has to try to play better against a better opponent. BYU's D also hasn't seen any good offenses this season (which has helped their D look great). Utah State represents an improvement on the offensive side of the ball as well.
On the flip side, Utah State's D hasn't been challenged by any prolific offenses, contributing to their good numbers on the defensive side of the ball. Similarly, they have not gone up against the best of defenses, so their offense looks a little better than it may actually be. Again, this is why I don't put much stock into stats, particularly this early in the year.
With that said, BYU will be challenged on both sides of the ball by Utah State, more so than any other game to this point of the season. A Ute fan friend of mine said that he believes Utah State is significantly better than Utah and he expects they will prove this week that they are the best team in the state. As difficult as it must be for a Ute to admit, Utah State is better on both sides of the ball than the Utes, who beat BYU just a few weeks back.
Transitive property aside, there are two major differences in this game than the "common opponent game" against Utah: 1) Utah State is not at home and 2) BYU is not on the road (well, and Taysom Hill is a pretty big third difference). Utah State won by 7 in OT at home against Utah. BYU missed two FGs on the last play of the game at Utah to lose by 3. The current theory is that a home game gives a 3.5-point edge to the home team. So Utah State is 7-3.5 (or 3.5) points better than Utah, if on a neutral field. BYU is -3+3.5 (or 0.5) points better than Utah, if on a neutral field. This game is played at BYU, so, doing the math, they win by 0.5 points...haha. That's not a prediction, that's just what we learned we're NOT supposed to do in stats: entirely misuse data!
If the past two years are any indication, Utah State will come to play and BYU had better too.
On one other note, BYU was -7 in turnover margin in their two losses. Boise State and Utah took care of the ball and forced turnovers (or rather they just waited for Riley to turn it over). Utah State is -5 on the year (turning it over nearly twice per game), with BYU -3 (and BYU turning it over exactly twice per game). I suppose that means we can expect a few mistakes on Friday night. Any Cougar fans feel comfortable about this situation?
I actually think we will win this one. With Alisa and Riley out, we have two guys on offense that actually play with a palpable passion for the game. I expect Taysom to make a few bad decisions and turn the ball over a few times, but how is that different from Nelson?
ReplyDeleteAs long as our corners don't drop off ten yards, they won't get beat by Keaton, who relies on quick throws and not on the deep routes. Their running backs this year have been servicable, but not at all like the NFL-caliber tandem they sported last year (and still lost).
Home crowd, energy on offense, and bringing the hammer on defense leads to a win for the Cougs.
P.S. I've picked BYU to lose every tough game this year so me picking them does not negatively impact the Cougars chances. :)