Let me just start off by stating my position, BYU has no chance to win this game. BYU only wins this game if Notre Dame loses it. With that said, it's not outside of the realm of possibilities for ND to lose it...
Notre Dame's D
I believe ND could probably take three knees and punt (or kick FGs depending on field position) and win this game. Their front 7 will absolutely dominate BYU's OL. There will be no running attack. ND can get to Riley Nelson in the passing game without even blitzing. Stanford's OL, significantly bigger and better than BYU's, never really got established. Stepfan Taylor made some individual plays, but he had no holes to go through. Josh Nunes didn't look comfortable all night. He didn't get sacked much, but he was dancing around more than he's used to, and it showed. Michigan's OL couldn't handle ND's front 7 in the running game, though they had a lot more success protecting Denard in the passing game (but again, ND didn't blitz and got 4 picks off Denard in the game, and 5 total INTs).
BYU's Rushing O
There is no reason to believe that BYU can block Notre Dame's THREE (athletic, fast, strong) 300-lbs-er upfront. It'll take all 5 guys just to keep those guys out of the backfield. That's not even counting blocking Manti or Prince Shembo (or anyone else on the D). BYU has no chance to establish a running game. 2 yards/carry might be a stretch, and realistically I think BYU will rush for less than 30 yards. ND's front 7 will absolutely dominate the line of scrimmage and stuff the run completely. And there is nothing BYU can do about it.
BYU's Passing O
Where ND can be vulnerable is in the precision passing game. Unfortunately for BYU fans, that does not describe the offense Riley Nelson runs. Even if it was, Riley isn't going to have time to throw the ball. He will have to make plays with his legs to get anything done. But I'm guessing that Manti Te'o is going to keep an eye on Riley. If ND drops 7 in coverage to cover BYU's 3 WRs, there isn't going to be many openings. And Riley, who is turnover-prone to say the least, will have more than a few if he tries to force things against this defense.
BYU's Overall O
Given that BYU won't be able to run against ND and knowing Riley's struggles throwing the ball, I think BYU's O will struggle to score. 200 yards total offense and 2 scores is my cap. One drive over 40 yards, that's it. Three and outs: most possessions probably fit in here.
BYU's D
This group got shredded by a precision passing attack led by a guy in his first collegiate start. Lucky for BYU, ND's passing game is pretty awful as it's led by Redshirt Freshman Everett Golson. BYU's ability to hold it's ground in the running game will be key. I generally have confidence in BYU's chances there, but I'm only cautiously optimistic going into this game. BYU hasn't seen a group of Offensive Linemen like ND's. Still, I think BYU's D is up for the challenge of playing on this stage, in this venue. Certainly, the D will be motivated after last week.
ND's Rushing O
Notre Dame has 3 very good RBs and a big, brusing OL. However, Brian Kelly hasn't really committed to the running game, other than the second half against Miami where he ran it like 30 consecutive plays. Cierre Wood, Theo Riddick, and George Atkinson III will all get drafted (though GAIII is a sophomore and isn't there yet). The OL all tip the scales at 300+. That makes them a little less athletic, and BYU's LBs may prove difficult to block for them.
ND's Passing O
This has been hit and miss most of the season, though mostly miss with Everett Golson. He is young and turnover-prone. He moves well outside of the pocket, but ND rarely moves him out of it intentionally. Instead, they keep him in the pocket to try to develop him. He runs on his own several times a game, which occasionally leads to great plays but more often than not turns into a negative play. The WRs are above average but not great, with that said, any one of them is capable of a 100-yard day against BYU. TE Tyler Eifert is uncoverable, but Golson doesn't target him. If ND is struggling offensively (which it has more often than not this season), Brian Kelly has no qualms about bringing in Tommy Rees to sling the ball around. He has come in to relieve Golson in three separate games and thrown the ball around to the tune of 3 games won (that otherwise would have been lost). It's a nice ace in the hole for the Irish.
ND's Overall O
If Golson isn't careful against a very hungry BYU D, he is going to put this game in doubt. There is no reason that ND can't just play it safe and win the field position and turnover battles and eventually bury BYU in a sea of Riley Nelson's mistakes and OL missed blocks. But Golson doesn't know how to play that game yet. If he were out b/c of his injury, I'd say Rees would lead ND to 30+ points and game over by HT, but I don't believe Golson can get more than 20 points out of the offense without aid from his defense.
Prediction
ND's defense not only stifles BYU, but forces 3 or more turnovers. ND's O will screw up and allow the game to stay closer than it should be. But ultimately, ND won't lose this game. I already said BYU can't win on their own without help...even if they get the help from Golson early on, Rees is always waiting in the wings, ready to lead the Irish to victory. I have no idea how BYU's O will score other than maybe a hurry-up possession or two. In fact, I think BYU's O will score more for ND than they will for themselves, an all-too-familiar theme these days. I have no idea how the special teams will set BYU up with good field position. To me, BYU's only chance is pitching an absolute gem, including 2-3 turnovers, on the defensive side of the ball. The one thing that BYU has going for it: for Notre Dame, this is just one of the games they have to win to make the big games on their schedule matter. For BYU, this is it: the last chance they have to do something "special" this year.
Notre Dame 24, BYU 6
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