Utah vs. BYU Week 3 Preview

Quick Thought on the Rivalry
When BYU clearly has the better team, they win a close game where they dominate the first half.  When Utah clearly has the better team, they blow BYU out of the water.  When it's about even, it's a toss-up.  BYU doesn't know how to blow Utah out, but when the last thing between the Utes and a BCS game is BYU, they take care of business in overwhelming fashion.  Neither team is clearly the better team at this point.  However, if you put stock into such things, looking at last season, Utah had the experienced team and the home-field advantage.  BYU came in a young, inexperienced team on the road.  BYU controlled the game for 3 quarters and simply showed their inexperience at the end.  One would anticipate that would parlay into a more experienced BYU team at home taking it to a young, inexperienced Utah team on the road.  If this were the week of Thanksgiving, I'd say, sure.  Right now, both teams kind of stink offensively.  It looks like the only way one team blows another out is if the defenses get involved in the scoring.  Historically speaking (at least recently), the games in Provo tend to be lower scoring as well.  I anticipate some of the same this weekend.

BYU O vs. Utah D
BYU's high-flying offense has been pretty grounded so far this season.  Part of that is the quality of the competition, part of that is playing on the road, part of that has been typical early season troubles, and part of that has been decision-making by Doman and Heaps.  Utah's D has carried their team to a 1-1 record, with a chance to win at USC last week.  Actually, Utah's D has carried them during K-Whit's entire coaching career.

The one advantage that BYU has in this match of weakness vs. strength is familiarity.  BYU's offense was seeing Ole Miss and Texas for the first time.  The personnel, tendencies, schemes, and type of adjustments to expect were all new to BYU.  BYU was never able to consistently move the ball, though they moved it in spurts.  Doman knows how Utah coaches, he knows the Ute personnel, and he knows how to attack them.  How much success that leads to will largely depend on Jake Heaps.  BYU cannot afford anything close to a Max Hall-like meltdown.  Heaps can throw one pick, maximum against Utah.  They don't have the running game right now to overcome it, and the defense can only do so much.

I expect BYU to move the ball a lot more against Utah than it has the previous two games.  After 316 yards against Ole Miss, BYU managed just 235 against Texas.  BYU should be able to go for 350-400 against a young Ute secondary and a defensive line that hasn't been getting to QBs frequently yet this season.  Heaps should have time to throw and receivers to throw to.  BYU must start cashing in more frequently in the red zone.  They need more TDs when they get in the red zone.  They need more trips to the red zone when they cross the 50.  They have to finish drives.  While 16 points might be enough to win this game, it won't be enough to win the game convincingly, i.e. it will give the Utes a shot in the fourth quarter, where they have dominated BYU in recent seasons.

Obviously the edge goes to Utah's D in this match-up, but at some point BYU's offense is going to wake up.  Will this first home game of the season be that time?  I hope so.  I believe they get going somewhat.  I'm calling for 4 scores (I know, it'll seem like a shoot-out).  The ratio of FGs-TDs decides the game.

BYU's D vs. Utah's O
The difference between Utah's D and BYU's D is that BYU's D has been making more tackles behind the line of scrimmage.  BYU's front 3 have been making plays in the run game behind the line of scrimmage.  BYU's LBs have been getting around the edge to the QB in passing situations.  The difference between Utah's O and BYU's O is that Utah has looked like a great running team at times and a great passing team at times (while BYU hasn't looked good at either for two consecutive series yet this season).

Wynn has struggled, but he had a very solid second half against USC.  He showed he is capable of throwing the ball.  DeVonte Christopher is a very capable receiver.  Dres Anderson and Dallin Rogers are Wynn's two other main targets.  Don't forget about TE Kendrick Moeai.  I wouldn't be shocked to see him have a big game against BYU in the middle of the field.  If the ball is in Wynn's hands, I think he is more than capable of putting up big numbers in this game.  I know a lot of "experts" disagree, but he knows BYU's defense in-and-out now and he has a very experienced play-caller in Norm Chow.  If Utah is forced to pass, Chow can work some magic to get Wynn confidence with short throws and screens before opening it up more later in the game.

Running the ball for Utah has been John White IV.  He had a lot of success against Montana State, but against USC averaged under 3 yards/carry, with only one rush for over 10 yards.  He seems a little more like Eddie Wide than Matt Asiata.  The big difference is his O-Line isn't nearly as good as the one those guys ran behind.  I would be shocked if Utah had much success running the ball on standard running plays.  I would look for some Wild Ute or some zone-read plays using one of the mobile back-up QBs, or possibly even some trick plays.  They don't have the horses to run straight at BYU this season as they have in years past.

Still, Utah is a very capable offensive team, despite what they have shown the previous weeks.  I don't think they are capable in the sense that they can drive down the field and score consistently, especially against a good defense, but they are capable of busting a few big plays and getting quick points on the board that way.

What You May Not Realize
BYU is coming off its most difficult two-game stretch in quite some time.  How much of an effect will that have on them this game?  They were physical games.  They were played in very hot conditions.  They were a long ways from home.  Will those two games take their toll physically on BYU?  I think they will.  I certainly feel if the game were close in the fourth quarter, I would put my money on Utah being the fresher team and the one to make plays down the stretch.

I expect Utah will have more energy to start and end the game on Saturday.  So BYU will have to out-execute the Utes.  Or they will need some big plays to get it going, get the crowd involved, and start the needed rout.  The good news is if they survive this, they get a quality opponent next week that won't quite match up physically in the trenches with BYU.

Prediction
Both teams are coming off disappointing losses.  Both teams need this win to get things going the right direction.  One team is playing at home.  One team has more critics to answer to right now.  How BYU, Brandon Doman, and Jake Heaps respond to those critics decides this game.  BYU's offense shines and they win by 10, or it continues to falter and they lose by 6.

I think BYU's rushing attack finally gets it going somewhat (I think 135-150 yards would be sufficient), Heaps is able to get in a rhythm as a result (completes 60% of passes for 200 yards), and BYU wins by 10.  BYU 23, Utah 13.