BYU vs. Ole Miss Week 1 Preview

BYU's Offense vs. Ole Miss' Defense
There are a few questions in this matchup.  First, how will Doman do as a coordinator?  I'm not just talking about calling the right plays.  The big issue here is timing.  Early in the season, even experienced coordinators and quarterbacks rack up delay of game penalties.  Can Doman get the plays out there in time?  Again, it doesn't matter what he calls.  Robert Anae called the wrong play half the time and BYU was still successful over his career.

Second, how will the running game adjust to the Ole Miss front seven?  BYU spent all of spring and most of fall against a 3-4 defense.  The only time spent against a 4-3 was the past week against the scout team.  The scout team can simulate scheme, but no way they can simulate a guy like Kentrell Lockett.  He was a big reason for Ole Miss' upset win at the Swamp a few years back.  He hasn't met expectations since then, but he's been injured.  If he's back to form, Matt Reynolds is going to have his hands full.  BYU's ability to handle that 4-3 defense will be big.  They need the run game to help set up the pass game, and help the Cougar defense get some rest in the heat and humidity.  Those middle three linemen need to create holes up the middle against an inexperienced, and somewhat undersized interior DL for Ole Miss.

Third, will Heaps find the open receivers?  Ole Miss always has a speedy, and physical, secondary, it's still an SEC defense, even if it's a bad SEC defense.  But they couldn't cover anybody last year, and they return guys that weren't even good enough to play on that bad pass defense.  They had to bring in some JC transfers b/c they had no experience or depth.  They still don't have much of either.  So can Jake target and hit the open receivers?  If he throws an early pick, how will he respond?  He cannot be afraid to go over the middle.  That is where BYU's biggest advantage lies in the passing game.  Speed can atone for mistakes on the outside because the ball is in the air longer.  A guy open over the middle can run a long way before that speed makes up for it.

BYU clearly has the edge in this matchup, with only 3 returning starters from last year's 4-8 squad that had a horrible defense.  BYU needs to score.  They need long drives.  They need third down conversions.  They need to be even, or at least close to even, in the time of possession battle.  The team should be able to put up at least 4 scores, even if they pull a spastic BYU and get all panicky because they are playing an SEC team.  You all know what I'm talking about...

My guess is probably 5-6 scores, with 3 or 4 of them TDs, or in other words, between 27 and 31 points, plus whatever the defense or special teams creates for them.  In the average game, a team gets between 10 and 12 possessions.  A turnover or two, a missed field goal or two, a three and out or two can limit the amount of scores you get.  BYU should be able to put points on the board in AT LEAST half of their possessions against a bad defense.  Ole Miss gave up 35 points per game last season, and the defense should probably be even worse this season.

BYU's Defense vs. Ole Miss' Offense
Anyone who has read previews to this game understands the strength of the Ole Miss team: running the football.  They have a huge offensive line.  They have solid RBs.  They are breaking in a new QB who is more of a runner than a passer right now.  They are coached by Houston Nutt who loves him some power rushing attack.  At home last season, Ole Miss ran the ball 44 times per game for 236 yards.  That's the statline they will be looking for against the BYU defense.

The biggest key for BYU's defense: stopping the run EARLY.  There is little chance that the BYU front 7 can hold up to 4 quarters of power running football in the heat and humidity of the Deep South.  The DL isn't deep enough, by their own admission.  They plan on playing 7 defensive linemen in the game.  These guys may be in great practice shape, but games are a whole different ball game.  Getting pushed around every day in practice by a big BYU OL is one thing, but those guys aren't trying to kill, maim, or at least injure you.  In practice, you have guys trying to block you; in games, you have guys trying to beat you.  If they can hold Ole Miss down for a half, that might be enough.  BYU has the horses on the D-Line to do a solid job, even against one the biggest OL in college football.  BYU is going to run 4 guys out there that are at or above 300 pounds.  They've got to hold ground early.

If Ole Miss gets down early, or gets in a lot of passing situations, they cannot just pound the ball for four quarters.  That would be to BYU's advantage.  It would also help the back end of the defense.  The secondary, despite a coordinated marketing effort, is still a very big question mark.  "It's the deepest, most talented group BYU has ever had."  I don't buy it for a second.  You don't just take a bunch of 2-star recruits and make them into the best group of the Bronco Mendenhall era, unless the previous secondaries were horrible.  Some of you fail to see my point...

If the front seven can stop the run, it will allow these guys to ease into D-I football.  If these guys get too focused on the run, they'll cheat up and give Ole Miss a chance to get something going in the passing game.  And not just get something going, but find some home run plays in the passing game!

I expect Ole Miss to have success, over the course of the game, running the football.  Ole Miss may come close to 50 carries and 200 yards by the end of the game, at a minimum.  BYU will not be able to stop it.  How many of those yards come in the first half will decide the game.  If BYU stops the run early, Ole Miss will have a tough time putting up enough points to win the game.  If this is still a game at halftime, BYU will struggle to stop the run in the second half, and the inability to get a stop in the fourth quarter might be the difference.

Ole Miss certainly has an advantage in this matchup, even in the complete absence of a passing game.  A big, physical line, with bruising running backs, will able up some holes.  Open holes lead to open receivers on play-action.  Ole Miss should be able to score at least 3 times as they pound the ball.  If they can continue to pound for four quarters, they should be able to score 5 or 6 times.  If they are forced to start passing, that number decreases quickly.

Prediction
Well, the first game is always the most difficult to predict.  Last year, I was exactly wrong about BYU's first game.  I said they would lose by 10.  Then I further predicted that if they won, it would be a sign for a great season.  Would it have been possible to be more wrong about the first game?  I think not!  While, I improved towards the end of the season, it's still difficult to figure out the first game, particularly against a BCS conference opponent not named Washington State or from the Big East.  There are so many question marks.  Will an inexperienced Ole Miss QB be able to throw on an inexperienced BYU secondary?  Will a new-look BYU offense be able to torch an SEC defense?  How will the heat and humidity impact BYU?

To me, the outcome of the game really rests on BYU stopping the run the first two quarters.  If BYU stops the run, BYU's offense can put points up on the scoreboard, and pressure on the Ole Miss offense, and it will lead to a big win for BYU.  If BYU doesn't stop the run, then it puts the pressure on BYU's offense to score nearly every possession, and to take time doing it, which is too much to put on a young O venturing into SEC country, and it will lead to a big win for Ole Miss.

BYU is less likely to make mental mistakes.  Ole Miss is more likely to bust big plays.

As you can tell, I have waffled over this prediction for quite some time.  I think BYU does enough in the first half to put themselves in a position to win the game.  They will succeed in forcing Ole Miss to pass the football (which they will probably find some success doing, much to their surprise).  Ultimately, it is BYU's run D and Ole Miss' (lack of) pass D that gives BYU the game.  BYU 31, Ole Miss 20.