Utah State-BYU Preview, 9/30/2011

BYU O vs. Utah State D
Utah State's D hasn't been really tested this season.  People may scoff at that, because they faced the defending national champion Auburn Tigers, and even being down they are still a really good team.  I agree with that.  They are a good team.  But it's a team that didn't have any leadership on offense, they didn't have a lot of returning starters (just a RB, TE, RT), and they didn't even announce their starting QB until about a week before the first game.  Auburn is a good team, but at that time they were a bad offense, and they still scored 42 points even though they didn't move the ball well against Utah State.  Then the Aggies played FCS Weber State and a CSU offense that is still a little behind the 8-ball in terms of execution.  The BYU offense can relate.

BYU's O has faced some decent tests against Ole Miss, Texas, Utah, and UCF.  Each of those four defenses are far better, personnel-wise, than Utah State.  As a result of Utah State's seeing less challenging offenses and BYU's seeing more challenging defenses, statistically-speaking, this looks like a very uphill battle for BYU.  Schematically-speaking, it will be a challenge too.  Gary Andersen is his own Defensive Coordinator at Utah State.  This is the same Gary Andersen that put together a 5-pick second half against the Max Hall-led BYU Cougars on Utah's way to a BCS game in 2008.  Andersen, quite frankly, owns BYU.  Or rather, owned Robert Anae's BYU offenses.

BYU's best chance to move the ball and score points this game is going to come from the running game.  BYU's biggest success is going to come from running outside the guards.  They can use the power-running game, but they need to move it outside one gap.  Utah State's biggest strength on D is over the Center.  They bring a couple of big boys at Nose Tackle along with one of the better Inside Linebackers in the Western United States in Bobby Wagner.  BYU's strength is obviously not running outside: they don't have the WR strength or the RB speed to get the edge easily.  But they should stick to running in the B-Gaps (between the guard and tackle) or off-tackle.  Line up Austin Holt at TE on the left side beside the Reynolds brothers (or personally, I'd rather see Marco Thorson at LG instead of the pass-blocker Houston) and follow FB Zed Mendenhall off-tackle.  Force the OLBs to beat you.  And when they do, open up the play-action passing game.

BYU's O has not been successful as a pass-first offense this season.  BYU must establish the run to open up the pass.  The intermediate passing game is absent partially because the running game has been absent.  Heaps is either throwing it deep or hitting the flat because the linebackers are able to fall back into that area of the field quickly.  That makes BYU easy to defend.  Get the run-game going, suck those linebackers up closer to the line of scrimmage, and it gives BYU WRs and TEs more room to operate 15 yards down the field.  The intermediate passing game is what will open things up for the receivers to run after the catch, that will give them confidence, and confidence will help them make more plays out of nothing.  If BYU is going to hit any home runs in the passing game on Friday night, they'll need to do so by hitting singles and doubles in the run game.  BYU needs to see some home runs AFTER the catch!

Who is the playmaker that steps up and swings for the fences?  My money would be on Kariya hitting singles, DiLuigi hitting doubles, and Austin Holt and Cody Hoffman going yard.

BYU's D vs. Utah State's O
There isn't much question as to what Utah State's O wants to do.  There isn't much question as to where the strenght of BYU's D lies.  Utah State wants to pound the ball down BYU's throat.  BYU's massive DL wants to eat up all the blockers so the LBs can make plays at or behind the line of scrimmage.  BYU runs three 300+ DL out there.  Utah State doesn't have a single 300-pound OL.

Utah State makes up for that lack of size with experienced interior linemen, tough RBs in Robert Turbin and Michael Smith, and a very mobile QB in Chuckie Keeton.  I have described on multiple occasions my memory of Robert Turbin in a game two years before he blew out his knee.  Utah State was backed up inside it's own 10 and handed it off to Turbin.  A Middle Linebacker met him at the line of scrimmage and Turbin lowered the boom, put the MLB on his back, and then turned on the jets and outran the safety 90 yards down the field for the TD.  That combination of speed and power is fun to watch.  It's going to be up to the DL, MLBs, and SS to keep Turbin in check, because the OLBs will have their hands full keeping Keeton and the slot receivers contained and the DBs always have their hands full just trying to play defense.

Utah State also likes to get their WRs the ball in the running game.  They just plain want to run the ball any way they can.  The passing game is not very sophisticated right now which helps BYU's secondary (though Ole Miss had a very vanilla passing game where a QB getting his first collegiate snaps threw for over 100 yards in the second half against BYU).  However, don't mistake the lack of complexity with the lack of ability.  Matt Austin is having the best year thus far, but there are a few other WRs capable of breaking big plays, especially against a secondary prone to give up big plays.  Plain and simple: BYU's secondary cannot give up more than 1 or 2 big plays in the passing game.  By big plays, I don't mean 40 or 50 yards, I'm talking 20.  No plays over 40, but no more than 2 plays that go for over 20 yards in the passing game.

I would expect a more simplified defensive approach by BYU this game.  There isn't much need to take risks.  Just play assignment-sound football.  Keep the running game and QB between the tackles.  Don't give up deep passes.  Force Utah State to drive down the field 3-5 yards at a time.  It's a young offense, led by a young QB.  With BYU's DL, it's tough to imagine Utah State beating BYU without BYU beating itself.

Special Teams
Both teams have made some mistakes in special teams this season.  BYU played a much cleaner game in that regard last weekend.  Utah State, even after a bye, had a special teams error that led to CSU's game-tying TD in the final minute.  However, Utah State has the better punter, the more accurate kicker, and the more dangerous return man.  BYU can take advantage of P Tyler Bennett's tendency to outkick his coverage.  JD Falslev should have opportunities to set-up field position on punt returns: BYU must avoid penalties so that isn't negated.  BYU should hope there aren't many opportunities for their kickoff return team to change the game.  13 years between TDs doesn't exactly inspire confidence they can make something happen two games in a row.

Overall
The keys to the game for BYU: pounding the ball in the B and C gaps with the power running game (I personally like Thorson over Reynolds right now in power running game, though Reynolds has been better at pulling and pass blocking), controlling the area between the tackles on defense and forcing Keeton to beat them with his arm, and avoiding penalties on special teams that can swing field position.  If BYU can successfully do two of those three things, they should control the game (as long as one of those two involves the defense).  BYU doesn't need Heaps to throw for 300 yards.  They need him to complete 60% of his passes and to discover the intermediate passing game.  BYU doesn't need the D to get a three and out every time.  They need to avoid the three and TD.  BYU doesn't need kickoffs and punts returned for TDs.  They need to hang on to the ball and be smart.

Prediction
This is a battle of strength on strength: BYU's Run D vs. Utah State's Run O.  The size of BYU's DL and the speed of BYU's OLBs should give them the advantage physically in that matchup.  At that point, it becomes about schemes.  It's DC Bronco Mendenhall's conservative approach vs. OC Dave Baldwin's aggressive approach.  With a young team, on the road, in a rivalry game, that aggression can turn into big plays or big turnovers.

For all the flak BYU takes for defending mobile QBs, I say, they actually do better than most defenses.  It is hard to stop a mobile QB.  Godfrey had two rushing TDs and saved one or two other plays with his feet.  But BYU bottled him up almost entirely besides those four plays.  If Keeton only provides four plays with his feet for Utah State this week, he doesn't have the finesse in the passing game to overcome that.  He needs to have more.  I believe BYU does a good job against him, as they typically do, but rarely get credit for.  BYU fan expectations are too high in this regard.

I don't think there is as much doubt about this game as people are placing in it.  BYU's rushing attack started to emerge from its shell last week.  If they can establish that in the first half, they should roll in this game.  I believe they do.  If they can't do it Friday night in Provo, this season will be a waste: beating up on lower level WAC teams means nothing, and Utah State is one injury away from being a lower level WAC team right now (if they aren't already).

Utah State can certainly put up points.  They have several home run hitters at positions all over the field.  In the end, though, I believe the Cougars physicality in the trenches on both sides allows them to pull away.  BYU 38, Utah State 20.

What are your predictions?  Take a chance!  Put it out there for the world to see!