Heaps' Passing By Down

The Aggregate Stats
Heaps has completed 55.6% of his passes, for 855 yards, with 3 TDs and 5 INTs, and his longest completion is 37 yards. He averages 9.6 yards/completion, 5.3 yards/attempt, and 213.8 yards/game. Note: I am missing one pass attempt, completed for one yard from the Ole Miss game that the official stats report but I couldn't find it. Perhaps there was something I counted as a "rush" that was technically a forward pass.

First Down
Jake Heaps has done well on first down.  He completes 60.7% of his passes.  He averages 8.7 yards/completion and 5.3 yards/attempt.  34.5% of his yards and 35% of his attempts come on first down.  34-56, 295 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT.

Second Down
This is clearly Heaps favorite down.  He completes 61.8% of his passes.  He averages 10.9 yards/completion and 6.8 yards/attempt.  43.5% of his yards and 34.3% of his attempts come on second down.  He also has 2 TDs and 1 INT on second down.  Something clicks for Heaps here.  Perhaps it is the down and distance.  He's taking deeper shots, while still completing them.  34-55, 372 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT.

Third and Fourth Downs
So far, the math hasn't added up: Heaps completes 55.6% of his passes, yet he's over 60% on first and second down.  Heaps is just 41.7% on third and fourth down.  He's averaging 3.9 yards/attempt and 9.4 yards/completion.  Completion percentage aside, Heaps has thrown the ball on third down 45 times and converted only 15 of them.  First off, he's only converting 33% of the time on 3rd and 4th down in the passing game.  The stat that I think is even worse than that: 20% of his completions on 3rd and 4th down aren't going for first down yardage.  Now that's not all on Heaps: WRs have to make plays and yards after the catch.  However, that aside, throw the ball to a deeper receiver.  The completion percentage is bad, so if Heaps isn't completing passes anyway, he might as well throw it a few yards further and give his team a chance to convert if it is complete.

I must throw a caveat in here.  Heaps has done well in "manageable" situations.  He has converted 8 of 12 times when it's 3rd and 4 or shorter (i.e. there is SOME threat that BYU could run the ball).  In 30 attempts at 3rd and 9 or shorter, Heaps has converted 14.  However, in 15 attempts on 3rd and 10 or longer, he is 1 for 15.  I understand 3rd and 10 or longer is tough, but I felt like in the Max Hall days, there was some confidence on 3rd and 15 that he could find Pitta or Collie or even Unga out of the backfield and get a first down.  Now, 3rd and 15 is "please don't throw a pick unless it's 40 yards down the field" time.  With a conversion rate of only 7%, it's no wonder we all feel that way.  (Consequently, when the opponent gets a 3rd and 10+ I feel that the odds of them getting it are pretty good unless Van Noy gets anywhere near the QB to hit him, to tip the ball, or to breathe in his direction and strike the fear of God into him and force a bad throw...)

My Thoughts
Heaps has done this poorly in the complete absence of a credible rushing attack.  While the stats are bad, and absolutely atrocious on 3rd down, it is understandable that a young QB (that feels like he has to carry the team, reach for bad snaps constantly, and overcome an offensive line and a special teams unit that were shaky the first three games) would struggle.  I am not defending him.  If he deserves to be the starting QB, he deserves to resemble anything close to a normal, non-Keven Feterik/Brett Engemann BYU QB.  He needs to be better.  But right now, the defense is the only thing working consistently.  Right now, it looks like special teams is improved.  Right now, it looks like there might be some progress in the running game.  The passing game: right now, if it's second down in the second quarter, I'm taking my shots with Heaps.  Every other down, distance, and quarter, I'm hoping for a defensive penalty or a 67-yard punt!

[I believe the running game will be back this week.  I believe Heaps will have a good game as a result of that.  As he plays better, it opens things up more for the rushing attack.  It better start rolling now.  BYU should handle business the next two games, but the game at Oregon State, as bad as they are, is going to be a struggle if Heaps can't get to 50% on third down and 60-65% overall.  And it really better get clicking if there is any chance at TCU.  Right now, there isn't.]