Finish Him
BYU reached Mississippi's 30-yard line on 5 meaningful possessions (6 total possessions counting when BYU got the ball with about 6 seconds left). In those 5 possessions, BYU managed one TD, one field goal attempt (missed), one turnover, one turnover on downs, and one punt after a penalty and muffed snap. At least there was variety: they messed up a lot of different ways. To have a chance to beat Texas on the road, BYU would probably need to average at least 4 points per possession at the 30 (and even that assumes that BYU gets at least 5 possessions to the 30-yard line again). Rice managed 6 points on their 3 possessions through 3 quarters, and that was about the time the game was decided. BYU must score points to keep the pressure on Texas.
Texas Not As Balanced As The Stats Indicate
The University of Texas displayed amazing balance: they threw for 277 yards and ran for 229. The secret to their "balance" wasn't all that difficult: they passed the ball until they got a big lead, and then ran the ball. Over half of their 229 rushing yards came in the 4th quarter. Because the pass was working and because Rice wasn't scoring consistently, Texas was able to milk the clock and wear the Owls down in the fourth quarter. They were able to be balanced because of the early success of their passing attack and because of Rice's inability to finish drives.
BYU's defense stymied Ole Miss in the first half because Ole Miss tried to run, run, run, so they could pass, pass, pass. The run had zero success. The pass worked decently well, especially considering the Rebels ran a kid out there without any experience, throwing to receivers fresh out of high school, with an offensive line that couldn't block 4 rushing Cougars with 7 people. 7 of Zack Stoudt's 12 incompletions came in desparation time in their final two drives (9-14 for 106 yards prior to that). Texas will attack BYU just the opposite way: they will pass, pass, pass so they can run, run, run.
If Garrett Gilbert goes through a quarter and a half of play 9-14 for 106 yards and no picks, BYU would probably be in trouble midway through the second quarter. Gilbert has more experience, has better receivers, and has a better play-caller. With that said, he only completed 57% of his passes with the experience, receivers, and play-caller against a defense much worse than BYU's.
Ground Texas
Texas had a huge Time of Possession advantage over Rice last weekend. Texas held the ball more than 6 minutes longer than Rice did. BYU had a 9-minute plus advantage over Ole Miss. To be successful, BYU doesn't need to dominate the time of possession battle, but it must at least be roughly even. The running game is a big factor in that.
Rice ran the ball against Texas to the tune of 4.3 yards/carry. Let me repeat: RICE ran against TEXAS for 4.3 yards/carry. BYU has a better line, a better set of RBs, and a better QB to keep the defense honest. BYU needs to average AT LEAST 4.3 yards/carry, not the 2.9 they averaged against Ole Miss. As I pointed out in my Tuesday tidbits, the right side of the OL proved better against Ole Miss, so that might be a good place to start. Either way, BYU will need to find whatever side is working on Saturday, and work that side!
2.9 yards/carry means BYU gets killed in Time of Possession. 2.9 yards/carry means BYU's drives stall before they get points. 2.9 yards/carry means Texas means by 3 scores. BYU will not score on big plays, so they must be able to run the ball once they get inside the 30, because, as Heaps learned last Saturday, it gets harder to squeeze balls in at that spot on the field. A healthy Quezada will help.
Confidence
BYU, by design, threw a lot of short balls to the side of the field. 22 of Heaps' 38 throws went less than 10 yards down the field and on the side of the field. On those 22 throws, Heaps was 59% with under 5 yards/attempt. Heaps actually had more success throwing short across the middle. Heaps was 83% over the middle with nearly 10 yards/attempt. Throwing over the middle is more dangerous, but in this case, it also has the highest reward.
There was little in the way of yards after the catch anywhere on the field except for his short throws across the middle: Heaps must be confident in his reads and use the short middle to his advantage. Realistically, with Texas' DBs, even with their Starting Safety being suspended for an off-the-field assault charge, Heaps will need to do everything he can to get his WRs some space to run. [One of the better jokes I heard in the offseason was from Texas folks after the suspension of SS Christian Scott: he's played here 3 years and never hit anybody on the field, now, right before the season starts he decides it's time to hit someone off of it...]
Safety First
Both of BYU's safeties had nice moments in the Ole Miss game. Daniel Sorensen's first half looked a lot like what Andrew Rich looked like in a first half. Travis Uale's hard-nosed tackles at the line of scrimmage in the fourth quarter were huge, and what a lot of people expected of him last season as he filled in. But where was Sorensen in the second half? Uale didn't do much of anything in the first three quarters. And where were the corners all game? They weren't making tackles and they weren't covering people. The most memorable play from those guys was that bush-league tactic with 20 seconds left in the game where Joe Sampson ran away with the ball and set it on the ground.
A lot was published during spring and fall about how talented and deep the BYU cornerbacks were going to be. What I saw on Saturday were 1/2-star recruits trying to defend against 2/3-star WRs. With a dose of 3/4-star WRs and TEs up next at Texas, BYU fans better hope they improved a lot in the past few days.
Final Thoughts Before Predictions
BYU really can win this game. BYU's offense needs to score more. The secondary can't be as porous as, well, it usually is at BYU. Texas' defense will test Heaps, Doman, and the offense. This is the best defensive line BYU will see all season. These are the best DBs BYU will see all season. This is (at worst) the second best group of LBs BYU will face. It will be a huge test. But Rice managed 9 points in the first 40 minutes of the game on this defense with an Anae-esque conservative passing attack (I read somewhere that Rice only threw one ball more than 7 yards down the field). BYU has a better offense. They shouldn't have the rust that Rice had in their first game of the season. BYU should be able to put up at least 20 points going into the fourth quarter. If they do that, it's tough to imagine they wouldn't at least have a chance to win this game.
Texas' offense will test the secondary. It will test the LBs in coverage, where they were also a bit weak last game. Texas shouldn't be able to run the ball at will, at least initially, on BYU. This line is a step down from Ole Miss. And a pretty big step down. The RBs are a step down from Ole Miss. Malcolm Brown will be a good back, but 68 yards in the fourth quarter of a blowout compared to just 18 yards the first through three quarters isn't as impressive as Texas fans think it is. Plus, again, it was against Rice. Fozzy Whittaker is a pretty decent back, but he's not a 100-yard game type of back. The WRs, QB, and playcalling are a big step-up from Ole Miss. BYU must either 1) cover well, 2) pressure the QB, or 3) and most ideally, do both.
BYU should be able to score. They should be able to make Texas one-dimensional on offense. The question is: can they stop that one dimension? If so, they have a great chance of going down to Texas and coming out victorious. If not, at least I'll get to see Austin (one of the schools "on my list" of potential future studies) and San Antonio and spend some time with my nephew before he goes on his mission! Not much consolation for you folks watching it on TV though, is it? How about this: if not, BYU gets a chance to rebound at home against Utah the following week, a Utah team that only managed 101 passing yards against FCS opponent Montana State. Mo's prediction to come tomorrow night. Be sure to weigh in on the poll on the right side of the page!
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