BYU vs. Texas Week 2 Preview

BYU O vs. Texas D
BYU's offense moved the ball well between the 30's last week against Ole Miss.  Rice had similar success against Texas.  However, BYU struggled to continue beyond that point, scoring on only a single offensive possession.  Rice only managed 3 field goals against this Texas defense.  If Texas' defense does the same thing, or if BYU's offense does the same thing, BYU will be in for a long day.  With an unproven kicker (albeit one with a big leg), who had been somewhat erratic on shorter kicks during fall camp and missed a chip shot field goal against Ole Miss, BYU can't rely on kicking a lot of field goals.  They must get in the end zone.  I think that starts with running the ball more effectively.

I truly expect BYU's offense to be better.  I suspect some of Texas' success had to do with the fact that Rice was outmatched physically.  However, with that said, this is going to be the best defense BYU will face all season, and TCU and Utah won't even really be a close second.  BYU should still be able to put up 3-5 scores though.  With all the mistakes they made last week, they still had several decent scoring chances.  To win, I think they'll need at least three of their scores to be TDs.  If BYU doesn't get into the 20's by early in the 4th quarter, I think they'll have a tough time pulling this game out.

BYU D vs. Texas O
BYU's defense had a great performance against Ole Miss.  Texas' O finished the game strong after a slow first half.  The RBs are confident.  Garrett Gilbert is confident.  BYU's defense comes in on top of the world, not for only holding Ole Miss to one real possession (two perhaps, but that was helped by field position and Bronco getting outcoached for about 5 plays) but also for outscoring the Ole Miss offense 7-6.  The problem that I see that BYU's defense will have is this: BYU's secondary does not appear to be capable of forcing a turnover.  So unless Gilbert makes a mistake, BYU's D will not do anything to make Gilbert doubt himself.  If he is comfortable, if he has time, and if he has open receivers, the Cougars are in for a long day with the ball being slung all around the pitch.

BYU's strength clearly is in its run defense.  Texas will attack BYU differently than Ole Miss did; they will use a lot more misdirection than did the Rebels.  And if the passing game is working and the back 8 all take their first step backwards instead of forwards, the rushing attack will open up.  One thing that BYU has going for it: those front three are beasts.  Ole Miss' OL was unable to get up to the second level and block LBs and Safeties because BYU's DL was eating them up at the line of scrimmage.  So we saw a lot of plays made by that back 8.

Still, if Texas comes out committed to the passing game, this secondary isn't good enough to stop it.  If BYU gets pressure early on, then Texas will move to their "quick" passing game with a lot of WR screens and short routes/3-step drops.  If BYU stops that, then Texas will reach into their treasure chest of trick plays, double moves, or even deep bombs.  If Texas can effectively take the LBs out of the game and force the secondary to make the stops, then it's game over.  Texas OC Bryan Harsin knows how to attack a defense.  If he doesn't figure it out in the first half, he'll adjust at halftime.  Again, if Gilbert stays confident, Texas will only be stopped by Texas.  If Gilbert makes an early mistake (or if, heaven forbid, BYU DBs should make a play on their own), then BYU has a good chance.

Prediction
As I posted yesterday, this is definitely a game that BYU can win.  Texas has the better offensive coordinator.  BYU has the better offense.  BYU has the better defensive coordinator.  Texas has the better defense.  I think Texas' offense is able to score enough to get a lead, BYU's secondary is just too weak and Texas' OC knows it.  In the fourth quarter, the game will be in doubt, but I believe eventually the Longhorns put it out of reach.  Texas 34, BYU 24.

Consequently, my wife says Texas 24, BYU 10.  What say ye?  What's the final score going to be?  Any one of you willing to go on the record with your predictions?