UCF-BYU Preview, 9/23/2011

Usually I compare BYU's O to UCF's D, and vice-versa.  But this game is all about BYU responding.  X's and O's are important.  UCF's strengths and weaknesses matter in the outcome of the game.  However, if BYU is a good team, if the BYU we saw in the first half against Utah and Texas and the second half of Ole Miss, is truly BYU, then it won't matter what UCF brings to the table.

Offense
BYU's offense is going to come together, play as a unit, and establish a balanced attack.  Or it's not.  It can't be about a missed block here, a bad read there, or a turnover.  Mistakes happen, but the frequency with which they have happened and stalled drives must decrease dramatically.  If BYU's offense rights the ship, cleans up its execution, and hangs on to the ball, they'll score 35 points.  If it doesn't, BYU will lose.  Big.

I will be interested to see if BYU makes an early mistake, how they rebound from it.  Last week, it led to more mistakes.  And more.  And more.  With the absence of experienced leaders besides the OL and DiLuigi/Kariya, that is going to happen.  Young players lose focus or get agitated.  Those few seniors on offense need to step up this week, should anything go awry, and show the young players there is no panic.  BYU needs the big plays to come from the experienced players (read: the running game), because the younger players (read: Heaps) aren't ready for that yet.  (I would also like to see the toss sweep to JJ DiLuigi, not backup FB Michael Alisa who isn't going to beat any LBs to the edge! I'm just saying: whoever dreamed up that play needs a personnel adjustment if it's ever going to work!)

One thing that has to change this week: the out route.  Heaps threw, not joking, 6 out patterns in 7 throws, and 10 out of 12 in the third and fourth quarters last week against Utah.  He is falling in love with the out route.  It is typically a safe throw, especially if you have a cannon like Heaps.  However, there is little room for getting extra yardage on those throws, and all of those three yard gains or incompletions are stifling the offense.  The yards for this BYU passing game are going to be found over the middle: Austin Holt has been money over the middle.  Why isn't he being targeted more?!?!  If BYU's offense is going to get going, Heaps must throw the ball to the middle.  A lot.  A 15-yard square-in or post can stretch the defense just as easily as the deep outside fade, but with a much greater chance of success.  If Heaps continues to throw more than 60% of his passes towards the sideline, the offense will stall yet again.  And worse yet, there are probably some pick 6's in store for BYU tonight.

Defense
BYU's defense has played pretty well for the most part thus far (with the exception of about 4 plays against Utah, 3 of which came in the fourth quarter with the outcome already decided, and 1 or 2 against Texas).  Just imagine what the score would have been if BYU's D had given up points every time it could have given up points last Saturday.  While UCF has a mobile QB, and BYU hasn't seen one yet this season, the key to keeping a mobile QB contained is the front seven maintaining their assignments.  BYU has a very good front seven.  While UCF is a spread attack, they prefer to run the ball, which plays into BYU's strength.  If the OLB's can maintain "contain" on the outside and keep UCF between the tackles, the big defensive line should be able to hold them back.

The secondary can't cover worth a lick: BYU has typical BYU corners (in spite of what blue-goggled beat writers tried to convince us of in the offseason) and this particular group of safeties are much better in the run game than the pass game.  BYU's front seven has to shut down the run game, so they can pin their ears back and get pressure.  Also, BYU should blitz more.  If there are 7 guys in coverage and they can't cover anyway, why not bring 5 or 6 guys instead...

Overall
Clearly, I feel this game will be a blowout.  If BYU's offense finally gets going, the defense will be fresher and play even better, and BYU kills UCF.  If BYU's offense still sucks, the defense will finally collapse under the pressure, the front three will get worn down and lose their advantage in the trenches and UCF runs all over them, on their way to a 3 TD win or worse.

BYU's biggest problem is, I think, that after last week guys will try to step up and make plays.  These are young players.  If they don't play within themselves, they are more likely to make mistakes, not less.  Quezada or Apo or Heaps or Holt trying to take over the game may result in another high turnover performance.  BYU is young for all of its "experience."  If DiLuigi and Kariya don't combine for 150 all-purpose yards or more, I think the offense is in trouble.  It really comes down to the senior RBs making solid plays.  They don't need 6 or 7 yards/carry and 4 TDs, but they need 4.5 yards/carry or more and 2 TDs.  They need some big plays in the running game, and they need them in the red zone.  They need to break some tackles.  They need to make some guys miss.  They need to step up.

I've watched a lot of football this past week.  BYU's offense, compared to every half-decent team I've watch, is beyond anemic.  Nobody makes any plays.  If guys aren't open, BYU doesn't complete passes.  If huge running lanes aren't opened, the ground game stays grounded.  BYU needs a man to step up and play big.  I believe it's got to be the OL and JJ DiLuigi combining for some big plays.

Prediction
Handily beating Utah State, San Jose State, Idaho State, Idaho, and New Mexico State isn't impressive.  BYU needs wins against quality opponents.  UCF is that.  TCU is that.  Hawaii is that.  I stand by my earlier comment that anything less than 9-3 would be disappointing.  This is supposed to be a good team, and a good team could go 9-3 with BYU's schedule.  This is a game that will go a long way towards deciding that.  Beat somebody!  I don't think it happens for BYU's offense tonight.  I hope I'm wrong, but if I'm not, this season essentially ends tonight.  A 1-3 start means that a 7-5 finish is the best we can expect from this BYU squad.  Right now, this team looks even less effective offensively than last year's team did by week 4 (where they followed up 10 points at Florida State with 13 points against Nevada).  I think the snowball continues.  UCF 34, BYU 10.

Like I said, I hope I'm wrong.  But I really don't see any reason to think I'm not.  This is looking a lot like 2010 deja vu all over again.