BCS Bowl Previews

These predictions are based on Texas beating Nebraska and Boise State beating New Mexico State. I have bolded the team that I think will be selected based on how I believe the games will go and selections will be made. After my predictions I will give a little information on how the selection takes place:

National Championship:
Florida/Alabama winner
Texas

Rose Bowl:
Oregon/Oregon State winner
Ohio State

Sugar Bowl:
Florida/Alabama loser
Pittsburgh

Orange Bowl:
Georgia Tech/Clemson winner
TCU

Fiesta Bowl:
Iowa/Penn State
Boise State

At-large teams: teams with at least 9 wins that finish in the top 14 of the Final BCS Standings. Only two teams from any conference may qualify, so the SEC can only have Alabama and Florida in BCS games, even with LSU at 9-3 in the top 14. Ohio State and Iowa OR Penn State will go to a BCS game, but all 3 cannot.

National Championship game impact on BCS games:
Number 1 and number 2 in the BCS standings go to the National Championship game. The games that lose their conference champion to the NC game have the choice of selecting either a second team in that conference or an at-large (i.e. not a conference champion from one of the 6 BCS conferences). The game that lost the number 1 team gets first pick (the Sugar) and the game that lost the number 2 team gets second (the Fiesta). The Sugar Bowl certainly takes the Florida/Alabama loser, who I believe will be Alabama. The Fiesta Bowl will not take a second Big 12 team to replace Texas: they will select either Penn State or Iowa from the Big Ten. My guess is, for national interest's sake, they take Penn State. It is possible that they select TCU but I think it is more likely to be Penn State.

Conference champions fall in:
The Rose Bowl takes the Pac 10 and Big Ten champion: Oregon (or Oregon State if they beat Oregon on Thursday night) and Ohio State. The Orange Bowl takes the ACC Champion: Clemson. The Big East champion falls in with the at-large teams as they are not tied to any specific bowl game.

At-large selections begin:
The likely pool of at-large teams available after the Fiesta Bowl selects a second Big Ten team is: TCU, Boise State, Cincinnati, Oregon (if they lose to Oregon State), Virginia Tech, Pitt (if they beat Cincinnati), BYU, and Miami or USC (but not both). These are teams with at least 9 wins that I project to be in the top 14 of the final BCS standings that come out next Sunday.

The Orange Bowl selects first from this list: they take an undefeated Cincinnati, or an undefeated TCU if Cincinnati is not undefeated.
The Fiesta Bowl goes second: TCU if they are still left or Boise State. It is also possible that they select Virginia Tech but unlikely.
The Sugar Bowl makes the final selection: Big East champion (if it is Pittsburgh) OR Virginia Tech. If the Fiesta Bowl does not select Boise State, they will not be selected by the Sugar Bowl.

With my predictions, I am saying that there will be a great National Championship game, pretty even Fiesta and Rose Bowls, and blowouts in the Orange and Sugar Bowls. It's unfortunate, but that is the way the BCS works. If Nebraska beats Texas:

NC:
SEC Champ (Florida) vs. TCU

Rose:
Pac 10 Champ (Oregon) vs. Ohio State

Orange:
ACC Champ (Clemson) vs. Texas

Sugar:
SEC 2nd team (Alabama) vs. Big East Champ (Pittsburgh)

Fiesta:
Nebraska vs. Big Ten 2nd team (Penn State)