MWC bowls

Here is how I view the MWC bowls:

The MWC's 5th place team, Wyoming, has a chance to cement MWC supremacy as they take on Fresno State, the WAC's 3rd place finisher. Wyoming isn't much better than UNLV and SDSU who finished behind them in the standings: so we're looking at a non-elite team in the MWC. Fresno State, who is light years ahead of 4th place Idaho, provides an opportunity for the middle of the pack MWC to assert some superiority over an upper-echelon WAC team. Last year, given the same situation, Colorado State handled Fresno State to give the MWC a notch in their belt. This Fresno State team is a better rushing team, is more resilient, and will be more motivated than last year's team. Wyoming does have a fairly stout defense, not as good as in year's past, but the offense has come a long way from where it was in recent years.

Air Force has a great draw from the standpoint of getting a quality opponent. Houston has made a name for itself with a 3-0 record against BCS opponents, two of which are going to bowl games (Oklahoma State and Texas Tech). However, it is a terrible draw in that Houston's passing attack will probably eat them up. Experts point out how great a pass defense Air Force has. They played one team this year that has anything close to an efficient passing game (like Houston has): BYU. They gave up 38 points and 377 passing yards; and it could have been worse. Regardless, if the 4th place team in the MWC can get a ranked opponent in a bowl game, that is definitely a good thing.

Utah gets a Cal team that had Rose Bowl hopes early in the year. They were in the top 10 and looking unstoppable. They got clobbered by Oregon and then again by USC and Oregon State at home. Then they got snake-bit by Washington in the season finale which dropped them from a 2nd place to 5th place finish in the Pac 10. This is not a motivated opponent. It's also an unranked opponent in a bowl with a smaller payout. It is a good draw in that they should win this game. But I'm sure that any rational thinking person would much rather have played Oregon State in the Vegas Bowl, despite rumblings from the state of Utah that BYU got shafted and Utah got a great deal...

BYU gets a very fast, perimeter-oriented rushing team with Oregon State. They are still ranked in the top 20. They were 5 points away from making the Rose Bowl. Motivation might be a factor here as well. The Vegas Bowl should be pretty routine for BYU now. They won't be distracted by the lights, dancers, gambling, and other not-Honor-Code-approved activities in Vegas. Oregon State might not have their eye on the ball, if you know what I mean. This is definitely a step up as far as the typical Vegas Bowl team from the Pac 10. They have never sent a ranked team to this game. They have only sent a team with less than 5 losses once (Cal in 2005 was 7-4). BYU is 0-2 in the Vegas Bowl when playing as a non-MWC-champion.

I've already let out my disappointment with the pick of TCU playing Boise State. Yes, you have undefeated against undefeated, but still, I'd rather see Cincy-Boise State and TCU-Florida. Even TCU vs. Georgia Tech in the Orange Bowl would have been fine! After the game, we could declare TCU the ACC champion. They beat the conference champ, the other division champ, and another ACC team. All of those games would have been in ACC country too! Boise State playing second place in the Big Ten Iowa would have been better too. Anyway: let the non-BCS prove whether or not they belong! Given their potential opponents, I think they would have had a good shot at 2-0. I certainly don't blame the Fiesta Bowl at all: what they did was definitely the best scenario for their bowl game. Consider this: play a game roughly halfway between the two best non-BCS teams. Or pick Cincy/Iowa who are farther away and probably aren't that much bigger of a draw, if it's bigger at all. They got two undefeated conference champions that will definitely travel well to the game! Being the first matchup of its kind is probably also the best possibility for their ratings as well. Certainly better than having 2-loss Big Ten runner-up Iowa on the field. I do not believe this was some conspiracy by the BCS: the Fiesta Bowl did the right thing for them, I just hoped for something better for the rest of America. Imagine a 6-team playoff: Cincy-Boise State, winner gets Texas, TCU-Florida, winner gets Bama...oh, dare to dream...

I think Air Force was the luckiest one from the MWC as far as drawing a quality opponent where it wasn't necessarily expected. BYU probably couldn't have gotten luckier with their draw of the 5th selection from the Pac 10 unless USC slid down that far: they got the 2nd place team in the Pac 10. TCU and Utah both got shafted, in my opinion, with their draws. Wyoming got a team that will be a challenge for them, but is a nice chance to show they have turned their program around somewhat. I think there is a good chance the MWC goes 3-2, maybe as good as 4-1.