Does Speed Kill?

BYU-Oregon State comes up tomorrow night. It should be fun, one way or another. Either Oregon State is going to put up a lot of points and that will be fun to watch, or it will be a close game that comes down to the wire. Sorry, Cougar fans: I don't see a blowout victory going your way.

You hear a lot about BYU struggling against teams with speed. My question is: who doesn't struggle with speed? Texas struggled with Oklahoma, even on a year where Texas is playing for the National Championship and OU is 7-5. Everybody struggled against Florida, Alabama, and TCU. Nobody managed to beat Oregon State by more than 10. Even Florida State, at 6-6, lost only two games (to Florida and Clemson) by more than a touchdown. Speed kills everybody, not just BYU. BYU's speed struggles come down to 2 things: keeping contain on running plays and DBs jumping Max Hall's telegraphed passes. Florida State and TCU consistently got to the edge on running plays: the OLBs need to hold contain. That is easier said than done against Oregon State: they crack block a lot with the WRs, forcing the DEs and OLBs inside and allowing the 'Quizz to get outside and go against a DB in space. As far as Max Hall goes: Oregon State is not a good secondary and their "star" CB is out for the game. So, at worst, this game will look more like the Florida State debacle (54-28) than the TCU massacre (38-7).

Speed is neutralized in the red zone, where the space tightens up. Oregon State has had to settle for a lot of field goals (3 against Cincy and USC, 4 against Oregon which ultimately cost them all 3 of those games): 33% of their red zone scores are field goals. BYU's D has forced a lot of field goals which won them games (2 against Oklahoma and 5 against Utah): 31% of scores in the red zone against them are field goals. If Oregon State has to attempt 3 or more field goals, they are in trouble. On the flip side, Oregon State has one of the worst red zone defenses in the country: 87% of times their opponent enters the red zone, they score (33 out of 38). Even worse than that, 88% of the scores given up are TDs. BYU scores at a clip of 88% in the red zone, with 88% of the scores being TDs. I think it's safe to say with Oregon State's D and BYU's O, if BYU moves the ball into the red zone, they will be scoring touchdowns.

One would think that Big Play potential clearly goes to Oregon State because of the speed of the Rogers brothers. However, BYU has nearly twice as many TDs of 20+ yards than Oregon State (12 to 7). The other factor that helps BYU on the big play side is the fact that they are a passing offense: it is easier for a passing play to break big than a running play. A receiver catches the ball further down field to start with, plus a missed tackle is amplified because there are fewer defenders to make up for it. If a DL or OLB misses the 'Quizz at the point of attack, there are still 10 other players to prevent it from becoming a big play. If Oregon State's backup CB blows a coverage or misses a tackle, he might have one safety to help him recover (it's also possible that he is the last line of defense). However, let's be honest about the situation: BYU is more of a methodical offensive attack and Oregon State is more of an explosive offensive attack. Both are difficult to stop: both teams average more than 32 points/game.

Bowl games so often come down to motivation. Wyoming was obviously motivated on Saturday where Fresno State was not so much so: result was a double OT thriller won by Wyoming. Last year, Arizona was motivated against BYU, but the flip was not true. The better team does not always win. So the question becomes: who is motivated this particular game? Both teams may not be exactly excited to play here because they had bigger aspirations earlier in the season. But both teams also recognize they have a quality opponent, where it could have been much worse! BYU has more seniors in leadership positions wanting to go out on a good note.

Truthfully, if BYU can't win (or at the very least compete in) this game, it's probably a fairly bad sign for the program. I really think it comes down to field goals: who is kicking them and who isn't? I think BYU isn't and Oregon State is. BYU 35, Oregon State 30. My secondary score is Oregon State 42, BYU 21...

I am interested to see what kind of stops BYU pulls out. Will we see some wildcat with Riley Nelson? Reverses? Halfback passes? Intention to deceive penalties? If Bronco's 2009 mantra of having fun holds true, they should have SOME surprises in store for the Beavers. I have been impressed this year with some of the trick plays we've seen. We shall see about this game: I'd hate the Royal Blue Clad Cougars to fall flat again in the Vegas Bowl.