BYU-Utah

So, rivalry game is here again. The winner goes to a better bowl game and finishes ranked. Loser drops from the top 25. Fans of both teams are wondering which team they will see. Utah has looked brilliant at times but very stoppable at others. BYU looked like a top 10 team several games this year, and resembled a bottom 10 team on several occasions. Both teams have some Jekyll and Hyde in them. Who shows up tomorrow?

Both teams have experienced defenses with big-hitting safeties, suspect corners, LBs that fly all over the field, and D-linemen that are good against the run and in rushing the passer. Both teams have big, strong, physical offensive lines. One has an experienced QB with inexperienced receivers. One has an inexperienced QB with experienced receivers. One uses the TE very well. The other employs a speedy slot receiver in place of a TE.

The teams are about as even as I have seen them in my brief history of watching this rivalry game. BYU's O is based on precision and timing. Utah's D is based on aggression and disrupting timing. BYU's D is based on stopping the big play. Utah's O is based on big plays. The teams seem to be built to stop each other. Utah has the advantage in adapting their schemes on the fly but goes on the road with a freshman QB. BYU does things one way whether it's working or not, but they are at home with a senior QB. However, Utah does not adjust at halftime as well as BYU.

Early in the year, Utah lacked the ability to spread the field vertically: enter Jordan Wynn, and their speedy receivers all of a sudden start getting the ball down the field. The Utah O has looked like an entirely different animal the past 4 games with Wynn at the helm. On the other hand, BYU's D has taken a turn for the worst. Games 1 and 2, they were an aggressive, blitzing, mix-up-the-coverage type of D. Since then: passive, predictable, and soft on their coverage. This is the key matchup: how does the Ute O, led by a true freshman who is experiencing the madness of this game for the first time, do against a stout-against-the-run but porous-against-the-pass defense?

It's also a matchup of wannabe 1,000-yard rushers. Both Eddie Wide and Harvey Unga need under 100 yards to reach 1,000 for the season. Unga does more of his work up the middle where Eddie Wide likes to get wide. Both offenses are geared towards those strengths and both backs take advantage of their opportunities. Both backs have been nicked up a bit: we'll see if that plays a role tomorrow as well.

Turnovers were huge last year. It was a 7-point game going into the fourth quarter before Max Hall completely imploded. I anticipate BYU taking better care of the ball this year. If they don't, it won't matter how Jordan Wynn and the Ute offense do: BYU will not win turning it over 6 times. The games in Provo tend to be lower-scoring affairs. That favors Utah. BYU definitely wants to see a higher-scoring game as that gives them the edge. 24 points should be enough to win.

I really think the experience factor plays big, particularly if it's close down the stretch, which pretty much all of these games have been recently. It will be close again, but BYU will pull away late: 27-17, thanks to the Max Hall and Dennis Pitta connection.