Tuesday, August 9, 2011

What To Expect From BYU Offensively in 2011

Quarterback
I would anticipate Jake Heaps to throw for over 3,000 yards and over 20 TDs this season.  He will throw more passes than he did a year ago: he didn't throw many passes early in the season and in some of the games he started, BYU committed to running the ball so much.  He will complete a higher percentage: I anticipate fewer drops, and he has targets to throw to that should be more open.  He will throw for more yards per completion: Doman will take more shots downfield and the WRs and TEs should be better at yards after the catch than all those inexperienced freshmen last season.
The thing with Heaps is that he can do just about everything with his arm.  His deep ball is beautiful, with almost unlimited range (some of his throws at the end of the season were in the air 50-60 yards and right on target).  He puts deep outs just out of reach of defenders and in perfect position for the receiver.  He has confidence gunning the ball over the middle.  He hits the backs out of the backfield in stride so they can take off after the catch.  The one thing he needs to work on is his touch.  He has a cannon, and uses it effectively.  But sometimes, it's not about slinging it at top velocity.  Once he masters that, he really will be able to make every throw.
I would personally like to see James Lark as the back-up QB.  If Heaps goes down with an injury, Lark is the long-term solution.  Riley Nelson is a gimmick QB, and he should be used as such.  I would like to see Nelson in a lot of situations this season, but I don't want him taking the back-up reps until November 19th (Senior Day).  I think Doman is more creative than Anae ever dreamed of being and he will find ways to involve Nelson on 3-6 plays per game.

Running Back
I think the three-headed monster, along with fullback Zed Mendenhall should rush for just about 2,000 yards this season.  I think Quezada will take more of the rushes this season.  Di Luigi will be the pass-catcher out of the backfield.  Kariya will be the pass-protection back.  Mendenhall can lead the way blocking when Kariya doesn't.  Last season, the four combined for 1,960 yards and 20 TDs.  That is probably about right for this season.  Since BYU focused so much on the run game last season to ease Heaps into college football, it'd be tough to exceed those numbers.  However, given that BYU's total offense should be better and more dynamic this season, the rushing game shouldn't experience a dropoff, even if the total carries drop.

Wide Receiver
There should be 3 WRs approaching or above 500 yards receiving this season.  BYU has the ability to sling it around to a variety of different targets.  Cody Hoffman was great at the end of last season.  He should be even better this season.  McKay Jacobson is finally healthy again, and I think Doman will use him better than Anae did: Jacobson should be more of a downfield threat, Anae kept running him on short routes across the middle.  Ross Apo should be able to fill in (and then some) for Luke Ashworth.  Rhen Brown has had a good start to fall camp so far and could be that fourth WR that BYU is looking for.  Di Luigi and JD Falslev (who had the play of last season) will spend some time in the slot as well.  Marcus Mathews is a bit of a tweener.  He played in the slot last season, rarely was he a "hand-on-the-ground" TE last season.

Tight End
Devin Mahina and Austin Holt are probably the most versatile TEs BYU has and will see the most action.  Neither of them were amazing in the pass game last season, but both are superb run-blockers, and both have the body to play TE for BYU.  Their bodies are similar to what Andrew George, Dennis Pitta, Daniel Coats, and Doug Jolley were as sophomores.  I anticipate them to get a bit more involved in the pass game this season, with more experience and off-season reps.  I think that the group can net 600 yards, and I think we'll see more contributions from them in the "blue" zone as well.  Richard Wilson had one really nice play last season (in the Washington game before disappearing for the year).  If he can double that this season, that should help too.

Offensive Line
This BYU O-Line should be able to do just about anything.  They have a ton of experience and a good amount of depth.  4 starters return.  The 5th spot is a battle between 3 guys, 2 that were set to be starters in prior years but had season-ending injuries in camp and 1 incoming freshman that was a 4-star recruit, who was there to get experience in the spring.  There's a lot of experience.  They are big and they are strong.  They can lean forward in run-blocking and they can lean backward in pass-protection.  They won't be confused by blitzes or defensive formations.  They WILL physically dominate at least 8 of the opposing fronts they will see, and COULD dominate as many as 10 or 11 of them.

Overall
BYU went for 366 yards and 26.2 points per game last season.  Those were both lows in the Bronco Mendenhall/Robert Anae era.  In Bronco's other 5 seasons, BYU averaged roughly 450 yards and 34 points per game.  I am optimistic that BYU's offense should be close to the numbers of years gone by.  First off, they are more experienced than last season.  Secondly, they are playing 4 teams that were in the bottom 20 in scoring defense last season while playing only 2 teams that were in the top 20 (both of which replace more than half of their starters from last season).
I anticipate BYU gaining at least 425 yards/game and scoring close to 33 or 34 points/game.  This is going to be much more like the BYU teams that people are used to.  If they can keep turnovers down, they should be a dominant offense that puts a lot of pressure on opponents to score points and keep up.

2 comments:

  1. geez, you make it seem like we can't lose.

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  2. Putting up big stats over the course of a season is different than winning every game in a season.

    ReplyDelete