So, I've gone position by position to give you my thoughts on BYU's opponents. I told you a little about what to expect from each position for each opponent. Besides Special Teams (which I will not attempt to rank because it is so variable, and punt and kick returners are often the last thing listed, injuries are more prevalent to return-men, and punters/kickers don't always improve from year-to-year as much as players at other positions), experience is another very important factor. BYU fans should be well aware of that after last season. It should be noted that not all experience is created equal. Having an experienced QB, C, LT, MLB, or FS can be more important than experience at other positions, simply because those guys make most of the pre-snap adjustments.
Heading into this season, BYU features a lot of sophomores and juniors in the two-deep. Yes, BYU improved towards the end of last season, yes, they return a lot of starters, and, yes, expectations should be higher this season than last. However, BYU is still a young team, and it would be well to remember that when watching the Cougars this season. They aren't completely inexperienced, but they are pretty young, 60 guys from last year's "dress" squad return, but a lot of them were frosh and sophs last year. Alright, without further ado, here is how BYU's opponents look in the experience department.
1) New Mexico State
2) San Jose State
3) Utah State
4) Oregon State
5) Utah
6) Ole Miss
7) Texas
8) UCF
9) Hawaii
10) Idaho
11) TCU
Good news for BYU is that its toughest opponents are among some of the least experienced teams they will face. The better news is that BYU plays most of them early in the season.
New Mexico State returns 16 starters, including their entire Offensive Line and their QB Andrew Manley. Their top 4 tacklers return on defense as well and 5 of the front 7 return.
San Jose State returns 18 starters, but will have to start fresh at QB and replace their C and LT (the most important positions on OL). They return their entire defense, but it was a defense that gave up 464 yards/game.
Utah State returns 14 starters, including all of the skill position players and 4 of 5 OL. Brand new QB this season though, which is big for them as they try to get over the hump. 4 of the front 7 on D return, but all 4 are seniors and multi-year starters.
Oregon State brings back 12 starters, including QB Ryan Katz and 4 of 5 OL. Only 2 of the front 7 return, but all of the projected starters are in (at least) their 3rd year in the program.
Utah returns 12 starters, including QB Jordan Wynn, C Tevita Stevens, RT Tony Bergstrom, and LT John Cullen. 2 starting WRs and TE also return. They have a very experienced front 7 on D, with 5 returning starters and the entire two-deep is loaded with experience. The secondary is entirely fresh, with only one player with significant, non-special teams game experience.
Ole Miss returns 13 starters, including pretty much the entire offense besides QB and a WR. However, the QB is very important to an offense. The OL returns the top 10 from last season. WRs return a bit of experience, but none of them have caught many passes in their careers, so their experience is in run-blocking and decoying. The defense is very light on experience, almost across the board. They have 4 senior starters returning: two on the front-end, two on the back-end, and zero in the middle. They have freshmen and JC transfers listed all over the place in their two-deep defensively.
Texas returns an unknown number of starters! Theoretically it is 11, however, Garrett Gilbert is not necessarily going to be the Longhorn QB this season just because he was last season. WR Malcolm Williams has left the team this week, leaving them with very little depth at WR. They have three new OL. Only 4 of the front 7 on D are returning starters, with a lot of talented but inexperienced players in the two-deep. SS Christian Scott and FS Blake Gideon are supposed to anchor the secondary, but Scott was arrested today on assault charges and his status for the season is in question (glad I cheer for a team where it wouldn't be in question, he would be gone!). They also have a very experienced K/P. Ask the 2008 Utes how important that can be! Sakoda won 3 games for the Utes and gave them the opportunity to make and win a BCS game...
UCF's QB has had legal troubles of his own this offseason. UCF returns 10 starters, including the aforementioned legally-challenged QB Jeff Godfrey. They return a couple of OL and have mostly juniors and seniors at the offensive skill positions. Defensively, they return 2 of their top 3 tacklers. The other 9 would-be starters are inexperienced, with only two returning starters among that group. This was a team that was built to win last season. This season should be a bit of a rebuilding year for the Knights.
Hawaii returns 5,000 yard passer Bryant Moniz among 9 returning starters. They have an almost entirely "new" OL, but the two-deep is mostly juniors and seniors. They have a "new" WR group, but most of them are juniors and seniors as well with plenty of experience with Hawaii's 5 WR sets. The defense returns 4 stellar players, and fill in with mostly juniors and seniors everywhere else. They don't have tons of game reps, but the guys have played some, and have been in the program long enough to know what's up.
Idaho returns 12 starters but will have a new QB. Their biggest problem offensively is that at the positions where they don't have an experienced starter coming back, they have a completely inexperienced two-deep. Their defense is very experienced, and, if it weren't for a 5,000 yard passer coming back, I'd have them ahead of Hawaii. With a new QB, RB, and two very inexperienced OL, they will have a tough time offensively.
TCU's biggest weakness, by far, is their experience. They have 8 returning starters. RBs and WRs are experienced. The OL and QB are not at all. The front 6 on D is fairly experienced, with the two LBs being very experienced (and studs besides). The secondary is fast, as always, but the two-deep they are putting out there has very little game experience.
BYU, comparatively, in spite of some of the youth I mentioned earlier, could very well be the most experienced group of the bunch, though they probably technically fall at #3, just ahead of Utah State. Offensively, they return all of their RBs, their QBs, and 8 of their top 9 WRs/TEs. They return 4 starters on the OL, with the 5th spot open between a myriad of players, most of whom have been in the program 3 years. Defensively, their front 7 two-deep returns 8 players with significant starting experience. The two guys with the least experience are transfers from USC, which I take to mean they are good players (or at least they were highly recruited at one point in time to end up there). The secondary is a bit of a different story. Travis Uale is the lone returning starter, though Corby Eason played a lot last season, and Robbie Buckner saw a lot of action in 2009. They throw in a recently returned missionary and a couple of JC transfers. Who ultimately plays DB for BYU this year is somewhat up in the air, but how many combined starts they have isn't. It's pretty close to 0!
BYU has 13 seniors listed in the two-deep (44 players), so they aren't terribly "experienced" per se. With missions and so many BYU players grayshirting and redshirting, they have a lot of guys who have been around a while.
It is certainly a benefit for BYU to get Ole Miss, Texas, and Utah early in the season. With so much uncertainty and inexperience in their rotations, it will be a huge opportunity for BYU to catch those teams before they hit their stride. Theoretically, a win over Ole Miss, Texas, or Utah in September will look a lot better as those teams start to roll in October and November. I do expect all of those teams to have good second halves of the season. Now if only that TCU game weren't at the end of October. Next up, Mo's outlook for the season...
i'm excited for next season already.
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