Saturday, August 13, 2011

What To Expect From BYU Defensively in 2011

There are obviously a lot more question marks and reasons for uncertainty on the defensive side of the ball than there are on the offensive side, but I'll try to shed a little bit of light as to what I think we might see from BYU's Defense in 2011 as the Cougars embark on Independent Schedule #1 (and I sincerely hope it's not the last).

Defensive Line
In BYU's 3-4 system, Bronco has tailored the assignment of the front three to eat up blockers and allow the linebackers to get free and make plays.  He usually has one DE that is more of a pass-rusher (So'oto and Putnam filled this role last season combining for 7 sacks), but the other two on the DL are usually run-stuffers.  This season, however, Bronco has a behemoth defensive line.  With the loss of Putnam to academic reasons, and the beefing up of his back-up, now starter, Graham Rowley, there isn't really a speed rush on the outside.  Eathyn Manumaleuna is at the other DE spot and weighs in just shy of 300.  So across the starting front three, BYU goes 294, 321, and 280.  The "second" line goes 331, 320, and 270 which is even bigger than the starting three, man for man.  So I would expect a lot of eating up blockers by the front three.  I would also expect them to collapse pockets with more ease than previous DLs.  I don't anticipate a lot of sacks, or even tackles, for this group, but that doesn't mean they aren't doing a good job.  Just keep in mind, the more tackles Uona Kaveinga, Spencer Hadley, and Brandon Ogletree get, and the more tackles for loss for Kyle Van Noy, Jordan Pendleton, and Jameson Frazier, the better the job these guys are doing.

Linebackers
This is the supposed strength of the defense.  While there are some proven players in the mix, there is some  uncertainty with the durability of these guys.  Kaveinga and Van Noy haven't been hurt at all, but Pendleton's injury list is as long as a typical Florida State receiver's rap sheet.  Frazier and Ogletree have missed a lot of fall camp so far too.  With the loss of Jordan Atkinson, those three must stay healthy.  No matter how "deep" a LB group is, any time a team loses 4 guys from the two-deep it is devastating.  Anyway, enough about that.  Production-wise, BYU MLBs typically record 150+ tackles between them.  The OLBs tend to record 10+ tackles for loss and are good for 2-4 INTs.  With this group, I would anticipate a few more tackles out of the MLBs and a few more TFLs out of the OLBs.  I am interested to see these guys in pass coverage.  Making plays all over the field is different than covering people before the ball is in the air.  The secondary is going to need help from these guys in the passing game.

Secondary
The secondary only returns one starter, and he might be losing his job before the season starts.  It's a fresh and inexperienced group.  There will be some growing pains (though BYU fans may not recognize them as growing pains, it might just look like a BYU secondary).  The nice part is that they have been practicing every day against a good group of WRs.  The guys in the mix for all of the positions are all either pretty good sized or pretty experienced.  At CBs, Corby Eason and Robbie Buckner have the experience, Preston Hadley, DeQuan Everett, Joe Sampson, and Cameron Comer have the size.  Jordan Johnson has little of both, but seems to be one of the better football players in the group.  At FS and SS, Travis Uale, Mike Hague, Jray Galea'i, and Carter Mees have all been around the program at least three years.  SS Daniel Sorensen played OLB before his mission, so he is going to be tough at what is usually the most productive spot on BYU's defense.  In years past, one player has seemed to get the bulk of the DBs INTs, but I think it'll be more spread out this season, with most players getting at least 2.  Sorensen probably won't equal Andrew Rich's production from a year ago this season, but Uale and Hague at FS should be able to make up for some of that drop.  I suspect this will be a typical BYU secondary, maybe slightly better than that.  They will be frustrating to watch and awesome all wrapped up in every series.

In spite of a very slow start to the season, last year's D ended up being, statistically speaking, right about on par with a Bronco Mendenhall D.  A Bronco D typically gives up about 22 points, about 120 rushing yards, and about 210 passing yards per game.  I think this season will see those numbers improve slightly for two main reasons.  1) BYU doesn't face any offensive juggernauts all season, with the potential exceptions of Hawaii and TCU, both of whom are massively rebuilding on O this year.  2) BYU will have a half-dozen offenses on the schedule that just plain will not score.  Utah State, San Jose State, Idaho, and New Mexico State are all projected to be in the bottom 40 of I-A football offenses.  Idaho State is a bad I-AA offense.  Texas, TCU, and Hawaii are the most likely opponents to go over 28 points, but the 6 bad teams are likely to score 14 or less, and BYU should be able to record multiple games of 7 or fewer points allowed.  The BYU D probably gives up an average of 20 points/game for the season.  It could be better than that, but I don't anticipate it being any worse with BYU's (relatively lighter) schedule.

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