There are a lot of question marks on defense personnel this season, though with Bronco coaching the D, there is reason for optimism. There are some questions about just how good the offense will be. They made strides at the end of last season, but most of that was against inferior competition, and it came after the defense had improved and gave them better field position and situations to deal with. The fact is that we just don't know how good this BYU team is going to be. But you don't waste your time reading my blog for that kind of stuff, you want to know how good I think they are going to be!
I've run through position by position with what I expect to see, now it's time to look at the games themselves. When a BYU schedule comes out, I usually group the games into four types: 1) games BYU should lose, 2) games BYU absolutely should win, 3) games BYU should probably win, and 4) 50-50 games. This season, BYU COULD win any game on its schedule. In previous years, I haven't necessarily felt the same way. However, being able to potentially win any game is different than being "favored" in all of them, and even more different than winning all of them.
BYU Should Lose Two
On paper, both Texas and TCU are "better" than the Cougars. This isn't to say that BYU has no chance in these games, but only a kool-aid drinker believes that BYU will absolutely beyond a shadow of a doubt go 12-0 this season. BYU should lose because these teams, position by position, appear to be better than BYU nearly across the board. Certainly there are some flaws with these teams that BYU could take advantage of (particularly the QB position for these schools), but going into the season, I expect that BYU will struggle at Texas and, by the time BYU plays TCU, I suspect the Horned Frogs will have pushed through some early season issues.
My theory on the game at Texas is this: if BYU loses to Ole Miss, they might be able to sneak up on Texas and beat them, but if they lost at Ole Miss they aren't good enough to beat Texas at Texas. If BYU beats Ole Miss then they are good enough to compete at Texas, but the Longhorns will be ready for them, and if they are ready for them, and both teams play well, Texas wins. Either way, I see it as a long shot for BYU to take this game on the road, even with new coordinators at Texas, coming off a 5-7 season, and having a bit of a QB controversy.
Though I believe TCU will be down this season compared to the previous three seasons, I still have them as the 2nd best team in the MWC (though I believe they finish third in the standings behind Boise State and Air Force) and winning 8-10 games, including the one at Cowboys Stadium against BYU. I think the preseason top 20 ranking is a bit out of whack. If any BCS conference team lost what TCU did, they wouldn't be in the top 25, see Auburn who won the National Championship last season. The non-BCS darlings have been getting a little more than deserved love in the preseason polls the past few years. I think this year will show just how good Andy Dalton was and how much he will be missed.
BYU Should Absolutely Win Five
Utah State, San Jose State, Idaho State, Idaho, and New Mexico State are all home games for BYU. These are inferior opponents. These are programs that have a combined two bowl appearances in the last 12 seasons. These are programs that do not win on the road, combining for just 3 wins away from home last season. BYU should win these games by four TDs or more, with the exception of the Utah State game which may be as close as 17 points (though probably closer to 24).
BYU Should Probably Win Three
UCF, at Oregon State, and at Hawaii are three games I believe BYU should win. Putting Oregon State and Hawaii in this group may be a little bit optimistic, and obviously things can change with injuries, or poor play, but I think by the time these games are played BYU should have the edge on these two teams. UCF they should have the edge regardless.
UCF is a game that BYU should win, but so were Nevada and Utah State last season. With a mobile QB, an athletic defense, and a good coach, it isn't out of the realm of possibilities that UCF could win, but it would surprise me.
The game at Oregon State will not be an easy win, by any means. I think at the start of the season, the teams are probably about even. I think the ability for BYU to improve by game 7 is higher though. Oregon State has a lot more upper-classmen in their two-deep, and I think they have a smaller potential to improve than BYU's juniors, sophomores, redshirt freshmen, and RMs. If the game were played week one, I'd call it a 50-50 game, but I look for BYU to be playing better football than Oregon State by October 15th.
At Hawaii is always a tricky affair. The crowd is raucous. The distractions are many. The Warriors are physical in the trenches and wide open on offense. The fan-base hates BYU. It makes it tough. But BYU has a few things going for it. First and foremost, their size upfront. BYU's offensive line are all over 300 pounds, Hawaii only has one 300 lbs. DL. Hawaii's OL sports three 300 lbs-ers. BYU's DL has three of their own to match. Second, the schedule lines up nicely. BYU will have played two games in the prior month and those are against lightweights Idaho and New Mexico State. They will be rested. Hawaii, on the other hand, plays BYU in its 8th consecutive week with a game, including three trips to the mainland and two physical games against Nevada and Fresno State. BYU will be fresh. Hawaii might be wasted.
50-50 Games Times Two
BYU has two toss-up games: at Ole Miss and home vs. Utah. When I first looked at the schedule, I had Oregon State and Hawaii in here as well, but after a closer look, I downgraded them to games BYU should win for the reasons stated above.
The Ole Miss game is a game on the road, in SEC country, against a big, physical group of men. It is a team that is planning on ramming the ball down BYU's throat. If BYU's front seven doesn't prove up to the task in the 90-degree, 90% humidity weather, then BYU won't win this game. But if BYU manages to be stiff upfront and hold Ole Miss to under 5 yards/carry, then it's a game that BYU could run away with. Ole Miss' D isn't much to write home about, so BYU should be able to put up some points, but can BYU's D rise to the occasion? Without knowing that with any certainty, it could go either way. I thought I saw an early betting line that had BYU favored by 3.
Last season, BYU took a young, rebuilding squad to a hostile Rice-Eccles to face an experienced, 9-2 ranked Ute team. BYU controlled the game for 3 quarters, but conservative play-calling in crucial situations cost BYU points and let Utah back in the game. In the fourth quarter, the experience showed, and Utah blocked BYU's attempted game-winning field goal on the last play of the game. Now, BYU returns 10 offensive starters and a lot of guys in the front seven on defense. BYU is the more experienced squad this time around. They get the game at home; their first home game as an Independent program. But this is the BYU-Utah rivalry. The only time BYU fans can be confident about anything in this game in recent years is when Utah has a top 15 team. BYU fans can then be confident that they will lose to the Utes. Big.
Both teams will be coming off of losses (I predict). Both teams will be itching to prove their path will be more fruitful both in the short and long term. Both teams are fighting for some recruits in the 2012 class: Jared Afalava and Adam Ah Ching. They are fighting for a few more in 2013 and, as always, plenty more beyond that too. BYU is probably in slightly better shape going into the season than Utah, but the teams and programs are so even that these games are almost always 50-50. Obviously with the aforementioned exception of when Utah is bound for a BCS Bowl, which I don't think they are this season (though I have gone on record that next year could be that kind of Utah team in a continually weak Pac 12 South, with a potentially rebuilding Oregon and Stanford in the North).
Overall
If BYU is truly a good team, they should win 10 games, taking their two 50-50 games and doing as predicted the rest of the way. If things take a while to come together, they could win 8 games, dropping both of the early 50-50 games. If things fall apart, it could drop to 6 wins, with BYU losing the 50-50 games and even two of the "BYU Should Probably Win" games. If things really come together, there's a good chance they could push for 11 wins, pulling off both 50-50 games and an upset somewhere along the way in the state of Texas. But realistically, I expect BYU to win 8-9 games and be primed for a bowl win against a C-USA opponent. I believe this season, BYU is a fringe top 25 team. It isn't out of the realm of possibilities for them to push for the top 20 by season's end, and I'd definitely be surprised if they fell into the mid-30's or lower by the end of the season. 9-10 wins after the bowl game, and between 20-25 in the rankings is a solid way for BYU to start out its Independence.
This sets them up pretty well for next season. They lose only 3 of the top 10 OL, 4 of the top 8 LBs, 2 of the top 8 DBs, 2 of the top 6 DL, a back-up QB, 2 of the top 5 RBs, and 3 of the top 9 WRs. All of the TEs return. If you do the math, that's a lot of experienced guys coming back on both sides of the ball! If they can get to 9-10 wins this season including the bowl game, I suspect that similar, or perhaps even better, results could await next season with a more manageable schedule (more of the tough games coming at home in 2012 and some really easy road wins, which are completely absent from the schedule this season). 2012 should be a good year for the state of Utah in football. That BYU-Utah game might have a lot on the line for a week 3 game. Both teams could easily start out ranked and follow that up with 2-0 starts. But enough about the future, let's celebrate the 2011 season kicking off in just over two weeks!
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