There is a lot of speculation that BYU may end up in the Big XII. And soon. While I admit, BYU should consider long and hard any invitation by a BCS conference, I hate that it may come at this time in the history of BYU sports. Ideally, I would like to see BYU have a good 2-4 years as an Independent and WCC member before having to make any decisions about conference realignment. As skeptical as I was initially about BYU's move to Independence, now I think it may ultimately be better for them than a BCS conference would be.
BCS Access is a big issue for BYU fans. BYU is guaranteed of nothing in terms of the BCS as it stands right now. However, I think if BYU ever has a season where they are good enough to make a BCS game, they will make it as an Independent anyway and don't need the conference affiliation. BYU has only once had a team that stood a chance in a BCS conference in the BCS era and didn't have a chance at a BCS game (the 2006 team could have snuck a Big XII North Title and had a shot against Oklahoma in the Big XII Title Game, I don't think the 2001 team had a chance to win a BCS conference: they were a "gimmick" team which doesn't last 8 games in a BCS conference). If they deserve it, they'll get it as an Indy.
First, the schedule is easier as an Independent, but not so much so as to put up red flags to the people making those decisions. BYU's future schedules will hold a number of BCS conference opponents and several other "name" programs. However, there are 1-3 more "easy" games than BYU will ever see as a member of a BCS conference. Plus, if the Big XII expanded to 12, BYU would have the additional difficulty of having to win a conference championship game.
Second, BYU has the most powerful partner in the BCS World: ESPN. They have all the national exposure they could possibly want. They will have 7-11 games on ESPN or ESPN2 every single season for the foreseeable future. When they aren't on ESPN, they will be on NBC playing Notre Dame, or have rights to broadcast the game on BYUTV for their own fanbase. Either way, the highlights of those games will be available to ESPN if they want them. If BYU is 11-1 and in the top 10, they should get an invite to a BCS game. If they are 12-0 it is an absolute certainty. Everyone will know who BYU is in those seasons. The only difference in BCS access for BYU is that on a year where they don't belong in a BCS game, they might get lucky and find a way to sneak in if they are in a BCS conference (like Connecticut in the Big East last season).
Third, the money doesn't really matter. Yes, BYU would get an additional $2-3M for membership in a BCS conference. They would get an additional $2-3M in TV revenue. Yes, that is a lot of money. But BYU doesn't NEED that money. Considering they just increased their revenue by a factor of 10 this past off-season, an additional $6M would be nice, but BYU is going to be just fine without it. It's sports are decently funded. The donors are still giving money. The fans are still showing up, and paying for tickets, and buying merchandise, and eating concessions, and looking at advertisements around the stadium, etc.
BYU doesn't really need the Big XII right now, certainly not as much as the reports say the Big XII needs BYU. The access would be nice, the exposure might actually go down, and the money would be nice. But BYU doesn't need any of that right now. I really believe that BYU has a good chance to make Independence work. But if they don't make it work, and they turned down a BCS conference invitation, that would be an unreconcilable error. The problem really is, BYU may have to make that decision before they have a legitimate sample size. They'll have to make the decision on revelation alone! While I really wish BYU had 2 or 3 years before being presented with the decision, if it comes now, I actually hope BYU turns it down, which I recognize would be a very difficult thing to do. BYU is set for at least 5 years in my mind with scheduling and with the ESPN contract. Certainly, the landscape will change significantly enough in the next 5 years that it's not necessarily a now-or-never proposition. But hey, it's a win-win either way: both paths are a giant step up from the MWC.
A lot has to happen before any of this even plays out, but since people are out there talking about it, I thought I'd add my two cents: I hope BYU holds out. [Besides, I doubt the Big XII would make enough concessions to BYU to change their minds. There can only be one uber-demanding school in the conference, and Texas bows to no one, at least off the field. We'll find more out about that on the field in less than two weeks. I'll be there in Austin for that game. Go Cougars!]
What are your thoughts? Fears? What do you want to see happen? How do you see it playing out?
One thing to consider is a move to the Big 12 is better for all other sports, except football. A step up in basketball for sure. Though it's obvious this is all about football, since the WCC was a step back for the other programs. If getting out of the MWC was all about "exposure," which seems like to be Holmoe's favorite word these days, then BYU should remain independent. Bronco even went a step further and said it's about exposure for the LDS church. I hope this is the case, and it really wasn't all about the money. If we immediately switch to Big 12, then it looks like we are following the money. I like exposure more than money. Stay the course, Holmoe.
ReplyDeleteBYU can compete with the best of the Big 12 if they manage to injure the opposing qb right before halftime. On the off chance that doesn't happen, I don't see them being able to beat Texas, Oklahoma, and whoever else puts together a solid team in a given year (usually an additional 2-3 teams) on a consistent basis, let alone win the conference title game on top of that. They don't need to put themselves through that sort of grind when they can be more selective with their schedule and try to catch lightning in a bottle against the Texas' of the world. Notre Dame just has to beat overrated USC and Michigan squads and can fill the remaining schedule with the U.S. Marines and Coast Guard and find themselves in the BCS. I think the current setup is a pretty sweet deal, assuming we continue to perform decently
ReplyDeleteI agree with Mo on not taking a bid. The timing stinks for BYU that is for sure. With our current schedule we have enough quality teams to play and if we can win it will be strong enough. And remember always that we will have unprecedented exposure on TV. Everyone will see us almost weekly.
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