Saturday, August 6, 2011

BYU's 2011 Football Opponents: Coaching

BYU had a lot of changes to the staff this past off-season, but BYU fans have got to like what Bronco has done with the program.  It is a clean program.  The expectations for the players, both on and off the field, have been raised.  For the most part, what he has done has worked, with the exception of the dual-QB system last season (which I think was more of a philosophical difference between Bronco, Doman, and Anae more than anything).  Also, they underperformed in Max Hall's senior season, I think.  The team looked unprepared offensively in several games, and the defense never showed up a couple of times as well.  That should have been a team that competed with TCU for a BCS game.

All in all, the program is in much better shape than it has been at any time since the mid-90's (the BYU dynasty pretty much ended after the 1996 season).  Crowton had a great season in year one, but the program was not in good shape.  Under Bronco, BYU consistently recruits in the top 50 (and they were in the top 30-40 every year but two under Bronco), the players are not making noise off the field, and the depth gets better from year to year (with the exception of the rebuilding year of 2010).  He has done well.  But BYU is going to see some other pretty good coaching staffs this season.

1) TCU
2) Texas
3) Utah
4) Oregon State
5) Ole Miss
6) UCF
7) Hawaii
8) Idaho
9) Utah State
10) New Mexico State
11) San Jose State

Gary Patterson has built a great program from an average starting place.  His teams have been pretty consistently ranked over the past 6 years.  Last season was the highest they have been, finishing at #2 with a Rose Bowl win.  While I believe that is the highest ranking they will ever achieve (with a senior-dominated squad playing a very easy schedule), he has done a great job keeping assistants and getting things done.

Texas has had a bit of an overhaul in their staff, and is coming off a down year, but Mack Brown is one of the best head coaches in the game.  Texas has been one of the dominant program of the past decade.  They had a down year in 2010, and probably will still be rebuilding a bit in 2011, but Mack Brown consistently puts one of the best products in the country out on the field.

Tough to argue with a BCS win as a non-BCS school.  Kyle Whittingham has the Utah program in the best position it has EVER been in.  Urban Meyer laid the ground work.  It took K-Whit a bit of time to get it figured out, but he has finally been able to build on that foundation.  4 years ago, Utah would have had no chance to enter the Pac 10 and be competitive week in and week out.  But now they can and will.  They have a good chance to play in the Pac 12 Title game each of their first two seasons.  With USC getting off its sanctions, and Utah entering the post-Wynn era, I can't really project beyond that.

Oregon State's Mike Riley has built something pretty good at Oregon State.  Twice.  Oregon State is traditionally not a good program, but in his two stints as HC, Oregon State has competed for Pac 10 Titles on many occasions.  But he just can't get over the hump.  My opinion is that he schedules too tough in the non-conference, personally, but I like his guts to go out and play people every year.

Houston Nutt wins every where he goes.  From Boise State to Arkansas to Ole Miss, his teams have competed both during his time there, and following his departure.  The sign of a good coach is how good of a program he leaves behind, and Nutt's Boise and Arkansas teams were left in great shape when he left.  Just look at the BCS games Boise State and Arkansas made with his players.

George O'Leary's Central Florida team is coming off the Knights best season ever.  O'Leary has taken UCF to their first 4 bowl games ever, getting their first ever bowl win last season against the Georgia Bulldogs of the SEC.  After going 0-11 in his first season, they have had 2 seasons of 10 wins or more, two season of 8 wins, and two 4-8 rebuilding years.

Greg McMackin took a little while to get going at Hawaii, but last season he guided them to a 10-4 record.  With this team (and a 14-game schedule including a bowl game), 10 wins isn't out of the question again.  There isn't a team on the schedule that they couldn't beat, which is the sign of a good non-BCS program, especially for a team with two BCS teams on the schedule.

Idaho's Robb Akey is entering his 5th season as the head man at Idaho.  They have only made one bowl game.  He's really only here by default.  He wins one out of every three games he coaches.

Utah State's Gary Andersen is entering his 3rd season in Logan.  They have gone 4-8 both seasons.  This is probably the best team he's had so far and he has the easiest schedule he's had so far as well.  But 6 or 7 wins and a bowl game in that environment doesn't make you a great coach.  Similar to Robb Akey, he wins one out of three games he coaches, but without a bowl game to show for it, which is why I rate him below Idaho's Akey.

NMSU has 5 wins in two seasons under DeWayne Walker.  Mike MacIntyre only won one game last season at SJSU.  Neither are projected to win much more this season either...

As far as where to place Bronco's BYU coaching staff, I'm a bit unsure.  They are either right ahead of Utah or right behind.  I could have a great argument for either.  Kyle won a conference title and BCS game.  Bronco won two conference titles and never finished below third in the conference.  The Utes have had better defenses most seasons.  The Cougars have had better offenses most seasons.  The Utes won 10 or more games 3 times in 6 years.  BYU did it 4 times over the same span against the same level of competition.

There are two main differences.  One, Bronco just revamped his coaching staff, so comparing the staffs is difficult because half of BYU's staff is new to their assignments this season.  Two, Bronco took over a fledgling program coming off of three straight losing seasons and made a contender out of them in his second season.  Kyle took over a team that finished ranked the two previous seasons with two conference titles and was fresh off a BCS bowl win.  It took him four years to win the conference, and he only did it the one time.  Kyle has no real limitations in recruiting and has landed some great prospects over the years.  Bronco can only get the guys that want BYU, and it has rarely been the blue-chippers.  Bronco does the same with less, Kyle does the same with more.  Kyle is 57-20 and Bronco is 56-21.  They are 3-3 head-to-head.

I guess the way to say it is: the Utes love that they have Kyle.  The Cougars are glad that they didn't get Kyle.  The two programs are essentially even right now.  I expect Utah to win 6-8 games this season against a more difficult schedule.  I expect BYU to win 8-9 games against an easier schedule.  The two programs are about as even as can be.  That's what makes the rivalry so great these days.  That's also what makes them tied for third on my list of coaching staffs.

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