While BYU and Utah are no longer in the MWC, I am sure fans of both schools have SOME interest in how the conference will shake out this season. Remember that the Utes and Cougars competed in the same conference with a lot of these schools for 30, 40, 50 years or more. Even if you aren't taking the time to follow the MWC (or spending the money to get the crappy channels) anymore, I am sure there is interest in how it plays out. With a shortened conference schedule (7 games instead of 8), there are likely to be more "ties" in the standings than in recent memory. This is Boise State's first rodeo in the MWC, so we'll see how they make that adjustment. This is Air Force's best shot to compete for a conference title in some time. TCU has some rebuilding, so there is question as to how quickly that will come. SDSU made strides last year, but lost their Head Coach. CSU looks like they'll have a good enough team and easy enough schedule to get to a bowl. Without further ado, here is how I see the standings (I break ties by head-to-head matchups, though the MWC does not officially make such distinctions):
1. Boise State 7-0
2. Air Force 5-2
3. TCU 5-2
4. CSU 4-3
5. SDSU 4-3
6. Wyoming 2-5
7. New Mexico 1-6
8. UNLV 0-7
Boise State
Boise State is clearly the class of the league. A lot of people are concerned about replacing so much of their production at WR with Titus Young and Austin Pettis graduating. First off, they return 12 receiving TDs and 3 players that averaged 2 catches or more per game last season, which isn't exactly starting from scratch. Secondly, their first conference game is October 15th against Colorado State, so they have 5 games and 6 weeks to find their go-to WRs (they have them on the roster, one or two of them just need to step up). The real question is if they can go undefeated in conference or not (2003 was the last season the MWC Champ didn't go undefeated in conference play).
The MWC game I think they would drop, if they drop one, is the one at SDSU on November 19th. At that point, they will be 4-0 in the MWC, seemingly past the game of the year the previous week against TCU, it is the perfect spot for a letdown, and against a quality, well-coached team. I believe they will likely make a BCS game, though I am not sure they need to be, or will be, 12-0. At 11-1, they would certainly qualify for an automatic BCS bid, being ranked in the top 12 in the final BCS Standings and being the highest ranked non-BCS champion.
[For BYU fans that are curious, IF-big, capital IF-BYU were 12-0 and ranked higher than Boise State, Boise State would still garner the auto-bid because it isn't awarded to the highest non-BCS school in the BCS Standings, it is awarded to the highest non-BCS conference champion. So don't cry foul, IF that scenario plays out. Again, I emphasize the big, emphatic IF.]
Air Force
While I believe that TCU will ultimately be a better team than Air Force by season's end, I have the Falcons "upsetting" the Horned Frogs in week 2 to take 2nd place in the MWC. The lost time Air Force lost a conference opener was back in 1999 (10-7 to Wyoming in the inaugural season for the MWC). The last time they lost a conference home opener was to Utah in 2008, in a game in which they fumbled twice in the fourth quarter to let Utah escape with a 7-point win (and eventual Sugar Bowl win).
Now back to 2011: this is an experienced Falcon team. They start juniors and seniors across the board (the lone sophomore starter was a starter last year as a freshman). They are dangerous on special teams with Jonathan Warzeka and Anthony Wright returnings kickoffs and punts, respectively, and Erik Soderberg handling the kicking duties. The defense is always undersized, but very aggressive. They finished 28th in the country in scoring defense a year ago (a somewhat misleading stat because their offense eats up so much clock, but still, it's impressive for the Academy), and they return 8 starters from last season's Commander-In-Chief Trophy-winning defense. I've got the Falcons around 9-3, maybe dropping to 8-4 if they fall to Navy on October 1st, but with the head-to-head victory over TCU, they are 2nd in the MWC in my book.
However, the bowl game outlook is a bit bleak for the Falcons. Boise State will go to a BCS game and the Vegas and Poinsettia Bowls get the next choice. I think the 2nd place Falcons may fall to the Independence, Armed Forces, or New Mexico Bowl. The selection process is a bit screwy with those three bowls and they are allowed to "trade" with each other, so which one ultimately takes the Falcons is a coin flip. The Vegas Bowl will probably want to pit their Pac 12 team (most predictions have Utah or Washington) up against a soon-to-be BCS conference team in TCU. The Poinsettia Bowl is already committed to taking Navy and I doubt they'll want to put those two together in a rematch.
TCU
TCU has a lot of rebuilding to do. They lost their QB (which I believe is the biggest loss for any team in the entire country excluding Heisman Trophy Winner and National Champion Cam Newton, Dalton was THAT good), 3 of their top 4 WRs/TEs, 4 starters on the OL, and most of the non-LBs from the defense. The experts all say they have recruited well over the past 5 years and they shouldn't miss a beat. The only reason "they" make this argument is because they have zero respect for the MWC (which is true for half the conference).
TCU hasn't had a top 25 recruiting class ever. Last year's class, which most sites rank between 26-30 was the first ever to even break the top 40, but if TCU has to rely on those incoming freshmen to be competitive this year, it's going to be a long season (BYU fans should know that from last year). Up until 3 seasons ago, TCU had never even cracked the top 50 in recruiting rankings. This screams rebuilding year for TCU. Perhaps one of the telltale signs of that is that TCU does not have much representation, at all, in preseason MWC teams. Obviously those teams aren't a great measure of how good a team will be (just like preseason media picks aren't a great measure of actual post-season standings), but given how TCU completely dominated those preseason all conference teams the past two seasons, it should be indicative of just how many question marks there are. The fact that I still think they can probably go 5-2 in the MWC and 9-3/8-4 overall (and won't be worse than 4-3 in the MWC and 7-5 overall), does say something about how they have distinguished themselves from the rest of the conference and where they are right now as a program. That is a rebuilding year most schools would dream of. Besides the MWC losses to Air Force and Boise State, they only have one other tough conference game: at SDSU on October 8th, their 6th game in 6 weeks, where SDSU will be coming off a bye. There isn't anyone else in the conference that should be able to touch them.
Colorado State
The CSU and SDSU 4th/5th place finish is pretty certain. SDSU is the better team, CSU has the better schedule. Ultimately, I think they'll both go 4-3 in conference, but CSU, with the head-to-head match-up in Fort Collins in November, goes in at number 4. However, my prediction is entirely based on the schedule, as SDSU should clearly put a better product on the field. A cold game, at altitude, late in the season: the edge has to go to CSU there.
CSU returns 14 starters, plus a kicker and punter from last year's 3-9 debacle, including the 44-0 blowout to end the season against rival Wyoming. CSU should get to a bowl game this season though, however, because the schedule gets much lighter (honestly, I think their schedule from last year to this year is probably one of the biggest changes for any team in the country, Phil Steele did call it THE biggest easing of schedules in I-A this season). Last season their non-conference schedule included 2 conference champions and a 5-7 BCS conference opponent. This season, their non-conference slate is I-AA, Colorado, Utah State, San Jose State, and UTEP. Two of them might make bowl games, but it would be by the hair on their chinny-chin-chin (I think Utah State goes 6-6, CU goes 6-7 and doesn't make eligibility, and UTEP probably wins 5 games or less). They should be able to manage at least 3 wins in the non-conference, and a minimum of 3 in the MWC (at New Mexico, at UNLV, and Wyoming at home).
San Diego State
SDSU is starting essentially from scratch at WR, but returns everything else on offense. Defensively, they only return 5 starters, but the new starters have a lot of experience. They are a little thin on the defensive line, which is a major reason why I think they drop that November 12th game against CSU. That late in the season, I will give the edge to CSU's OL that averages 6'4" and 300+ pounds, at altitude, with a late afternoon kickoff (and temperatures below freezing). SDSU will ultimately become a very competitive team with Boise State and Hawaii in the MWC. I think Rocky Long is the right guy for the job. He got a lot out of his New Mexico teams with zero talent. Hoke did a get job getting this program set up, but Rocky Long will stick around and build a long-term winner in San Diego.
The Red-Headed Step-Children
6th, 7th, and 8th place are the reason most people don't look at the MWC with any respect. Wyoming, New Mexico, and UNLV are historically not really good teams. But the past few seasons (and I suspect this season especially), they will be historically bad. I would actually be shocked if UNLV didn't win a single conference game, but I just don't see who it's going to be against right now. Wyoming gets New Mexico and UNLV at home. New Mexico gets UNLV at home. None of them will compete in more than 1 or 2 games against the other 5 teams in the league. So the only wins available for them are against each other. There is not much of any home field advantage for any of these teams, but still, bad teams play poorly on the road regardless of the opponent or the crowd.
Wyoming tops out at 5 wins, no way they get more than that (and they play two I-AA teams so they would need 7 to get to a bowl game anyway). I could see New Mexico getting as many as 4, but there isn't really much hope for a team that schedules their homecoming game as a I-AA opponent. UNLV has a tough schedule and doesn't have the team to back it up. If they can find a way to beat I-AA opponent Southern Utah, they will 1-4 before making a trip to Laramie on October 15th for their first chance at a real win. Their MWC home games are all losses: CSU, Boise State, SDSU. I don't see where they win more than 2 games.
So there you have my thoughts on the new-look MWC. Just by way of information, I am aware of a lot of the preseason predictions that are out there. However, I do all of my own research and do not rely on any of the "experts" and their predictions because they only really do their homework on schools that "matter" on the national landscape. A lot of it is based on perceived quality of team without any regard for difficulty of schedule. Even the MWC Media is a bit of a joke when it comes to preseason prognostications, and all they have to do is research their 8 schools. Preseason polls are obviously worthless, in retrospect, yet we all love them.
One specific example of how ridiculous they can be: TCU is ranked #15 in preseason polls. Perhaps you could argue that TCU has "earned" their preseason ranking with their success the past 3 seasons, but still, if ANY team in a BCS conference lost what TCU did, they would be lucky to be ranked at all (like Auburn who won the NC last year but lost EVERYBODY). That is my biggest beef with this year's preseason top 25. TCU is not the 15th best team in the country right now, nor will they be by season's end. Here is where I think there now exists a bias towards non-BCS teams. "If a non-BCS school had a great year, the next year they'll be great again because they didn't play anybody last season and won't again this season." Yes, they won the Rose Bowl, but their reward was a #2 ranking at the end of last season, they shouldn't get rewarded for that again this year. TCU is not nearly as good this year and they play a more difficult schedule. 9 wins. Tops.
No comments:
Post a Comment