Monday, January 4, 2010

Where are the Frogs I watched all season?

Kudos to Boise State. They had a gameplan. And they executed it. They had a fire. And they used it. Their line play was outstanding. They were able to make a play and a drive when it mattered most. They have been on the big stage before and it showed.

TCU, on the other hand, has never been on a stage like that before. And it showed. Dropped passes. Poor playcalling. Bad decisions. Stupid penalties. For the first quarter and a half they had that deer-in-the-headlights look. In 10 of their 12 games this year, they were the ones giving the other team that look for 4 quarters. Then later in the game, after the fake punt, they had that look again and Boise State marched down the field and scored (call a timeout and settle your team down, coach...). On the final two drives they had 5 dropped passes, including the potential game-tying TD, but not including the interception that clinched the game for Boise State that hit the TCU receiver's helmet and bounced up in the air before it was picked off (since he didn't technically drop it). The drive before that, Dalton took a crucial sack instead of throwing the ball away. That forced them into a 3rd and longer. That's nerves, baby.

The offense was totally vanilla. Usually they run option, reverses, sweeps, etc. The defense was passive and reacting. They are usually ultra-aggressive and disruptive. For 12 games, they dictated what the opposing offense could and could not do. For 12 games they kept opposing defenses guessing what was coming by mixing formations, personnel, and playcalling. Tonight, it was option read, throw deep, wide receiver screen, punt. Maybe it was just a sign of respect for the Broncos that they backed off, maybe it was just the skill of Boise State that allowed the Broncos to do what they wanted to, or maybe the BYU defense suited up in TCU uniforms...

Whatever team it was that took the field tonight, it was not the MWC Champion TCU Horned Frogs. They may have donned the same unies, but they didn't play with the same passion, execution, and confidence. Maybe Boise State is that good. Maybe TCU just didn't know what to expect on that stage, in that game, against that opponent. The good news is for Horned Frog fans: they bring 9 offensive starters, 7 defensive starters, and their K/P and do so in a year where BYU and Utah will likely struggle, particularly defensively. They could very likely have a chance to redeem themselves next season.

Of course, Boise State may have a chance to do something even more spectacular than what they did tonight: they lose ZERO starters on offense and ONE starter on defense and, of course, they also return the wannabe QB playing K/P. They will finish this season in the top 4 and likely start next season in the top 10, or maybe 12. Obviously the WAC schedule SHOULD be an undefeated run, since they were clearly the best team in the conference this year and bring everybody back next year. They get a big showcase game in Washington DC against Virginia Tech (who will likely be a top 10 team also) on opening weekend (we all know how well Boise State does when they have time to prepare for a game: just ask Oklahoma, Oregon, and TCU). They play Toledo at home next and then travel to Wyoming (which isn't exactly a signature win but they won a bowl game this year with a solid core returning next year from this year's 7-6 team). Then Oregon State travels to the smurf turf for the Broncos' final non-conference game. That's 2 top 25 BCS teams and one non-BCS likely-to-be-bowl-eligible team. Couple that with a potentially improved WAC and you have the makings of a not-so-terrible, but-not-so-terribly-difficult-to-prevent-an-undefeated-season schedule.

Five reasons why they might have an opportunity to play for a National Championship next season: 1) The schedule will look remarkably better, especially if Idaho, Nevada, Utah State, and Fresno State all play better in the non-conference, 2) they will start higher in the rankings and higher in the public perception venue, 3) they just beat TCU, the most likely non-BCS school to compete with them, so if both go undefeated again the Broncos will be the higher ranked team, 4) they have now won 2 BCS games and have 3 undefeated regular seasons in 4 years, and 5) look at the rest of the top 10, a lot of them will be rebuilding next year so someone will have to fill the void.

If they go undefeated next year, they might just get over the hump/glass ceiling. Not an early prediction, just saying: if you start in the top 10, coming off a 2nd BCS victory in 4 years, and go undefeated while playing two quality BCS opponents in the non-conference, you never know what might happen. Did I mention my mother finished her college degree at Boise State? Go Broncos!

(P.S. just join the MWC already: what are we waiting for, lock up that auto-bid!)

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