Besides the Marriott Center, this is the toughest venue in the MWC, statistically speaking. Even when the Lobos are having a down year, it is still tough to go in there and get a win. And this is not a down year. Two years ago BYU went down there and stole one in OT with Trent Plaisted (of all people) hitting 2 clutch free throws with 5 seconds left in the extra frame to give BYU a 1-point lead and the W. Last year, BYU lost by 19 as part of a late-January slide where the Cougars dropped 3 of 4. Both of those years New Mexico went to the NIT. This year, they appear poised for an NCAA tournament bid and perhaps a single digit seed. So this year's Lobo squad is even better than last year's that blasted BYU. BYU, however, is also much better than last year's squad, particularly on the road where they have a 6-1 record, the lone loss at Utah State at the second toughest venue BYU will play at this season. Yes, the Spectrum is even tougher than the Thomas & Mack in Vegas for BYU, given the in-state rivalry and relatively tight quarters.
I think BYU matches up well with New Mexico. Despite New Mexico being better than SDSU, I thought all along BYU had a better chance of winning at New Mexico than at SDSU based solely on matchups. Their best offensive players can be guarded by BYU's best defensive players (Darington Hobson and Roman Martinez by Hartsock and Emory). Miles and Davies SHOULD be able to do some damage as they have a size and depth advantage against the Lobo big men, AJ Hardeman and Will Brown. The real question for stopping New Mexico's O will be: can Jimmer stay in front of Dairese Gary? If you contain his driving ability, New Mexico has looked average and inconsistent in the few games I've seen this year. I do anticipate a decent amount of the 2-3 zone from BYU tonight in order to stop penetration. In the zone they have to be aware of Roman Martinez and Philip McDonald outside as they each average over 2 3's made per game. Nate Garth off the bench is also a streaky shooter who can get hot from outside.
New Mexico has righted the ship after their 0-2 start in conference. However, the first two were against SDSU and UNLV, and the next 5 were against the bottom 5. So this is the first "storm" their ship has encountered since their 0-2 start. We'll see how "righted" it is. They rely heavily on sophomores, so we'll see how they handle the pressure situation of playing the top dog in the MWC and the best team they will play all season. Their 8-man rotation has 1 senior, 2 juniors, 4 sophomores, and 1 freshman. They'll need the young pups to perform.
I think the X-Factor for this game is: how does BYU deal with the hype? The past two years in hoops and football, as soon as the team has started getting some quality national publicity, they have tanked almost immediately, and usually in a big way. This week they entered the top 10 in the Coaches Poll. Pat Forde gave them an outside chance at winning the National Championship in his Forde Minutes. There has been discussion as to how high their ceiling is for seeds, how far they can advance in the tournament, can they get in the West Regional (which plays the final two rounds in Salt Lake City), etc. This will be as much of a test of focus as it is a test of how good BYU really is. Nothing gets New Mexico fans more fired up then a chance to screw up BYU's season. Realistically, every game on BYU's schedule from here on out will be a lot easier than this one. This certainly isn't BYU's last chance to lose this season, but it is, by far, the biggest test they will have until the MWC Tourney championship game (or MAYBE the semi-final).
I would not be surprised to see BYU walk out of the Pit with an 8-point win, particularly if they can score into the high 70's or even the low 80's. I'm not banking on it, however, not in the Pit, not tonight, not while everyone has jumped on the bandwagon now. BYU has to let its fanbase down, it is the unwritten rule of BYU sports: the timing is perfect. The only possible better timing would be if they got a 1-seed in the West Regional and lost in the second round to an 8 or 9 seed.
New Mexico 77, BYU 69. And it might even be worse than that. Like I said in an earlier post, this might be the Florida State game of the hoops season. The only reason I am not predicting a 20-point loss is that I know some of you will get mad at me...
We have three out of the last four there remember.
ReplyDeleteBYU has not tanked the last few years, they have just played teams that gave them match up problems. Speed has always hurt them in both football and basketball. With no nickle beer and free sex at BYU for the athletes, they have immediately lost all hope of the great athletes (see black athletes). They do very well with the limitations they impose on themselves, but speed will always hurt them.
ReplyDeleteThe way I see it, coach Rose is the best coach in the MWC. This is the first time he's had a team that is better that "OK". We are a better team and the scoreboard will show it.
ReplyDeleteGreat article...I particularly like the losing to the 8-9 seed as a west 1 seed. It will probably be Texas A&M :)
ReplyDeleteAs always, I was looking forward to your pregame analysis and prediction. It didn't disappoint. And here's my Dr. Pepper toast to the unwritten rule of BYU!
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