The MWC Race

Well, the race for the MWC regular season champion has taken some unforeseen twists during the first two weeks of conference play. The Big 4 do not appear as invincible at home as they have in the past: New Mexico lost to UNLV, UNLV lost in the Thomas & Mack to Utah, SDSU trailed for over 30 minutes in a home game over perennial bottom-dweller TCU, and BYU needed some ice-cold shooting down the stretch from UNLV to pull out a 4-point win at home. Here is a quick look at the teams from the MWC (in order of likelihood to make the NCAA Tournament):

BYU is deep. They lost their best player and pre-season player of the year in the conference and still beat a ranked (at the time) UNLV team and won on the road against an old rival. They are also 3-0 against BCS conference opponents, and led in all 3 games by at least 20 (and led by 30 in 2 of the 3). They can win on the road. They still struggle against "rivals" on the road, i.e. they lost at Utah State by 10. That does not bode well for upcoming road games at UNLV, Utah, SDSU, and New Mexico. Even at Wyoming might be a struggle this year. To this point, they are the most consistent team in the conference, besides maybe Air Force (but that's the wrong kind of consistency). The outlook is probably a 13-3 or 12-4 finish. I would certainly put my money on them to win the conference championship at this point. That would be good enough for a 5 or 6 seed. If they win the conference tournament and regular season championship outright, they could easily move into a 3 or 4 seed.

New Mexico is very talented. They are also pretty young and have experienced all of the ups and downs associated with that. They are extremely tough at home, or appeared that way until UNLV handled them by double-digits. They went 3-0 against BCS conference opponents and also beat 2 mid-majors that should fight for tourney bids this season. They struggle mightily on the road, however. Most teams that rely heavily on underclassmen hit a slump about 15-20 games into the season (as I predicted Texas would-and did-tonight). I think they are there right now, with a 2-2 record in the last 4 games with a near-miss at Wyoming. I think they are probably looking at an 11-5 record, which should be good enough for a 9 or 10 seed. Any worse than that and they are testing the patience of the Selection Committee.

UNLV has some great penetrating guards and good outside shooters across the board. They definitely lack quality depth down low. It's all about the guard play for them. If they aren't making outside shots and free throws, they are beatable: look at the BYU and Utah games for evidence of that. With that said, they have so many good shooters and penetrators that it's rare that all of them are off. They have 6 guys that are all capable of going off for 20 points on any given night. Frankly, I expected more out of Derrick Jasper and Brice Massamba to this point: they came in as highly touted players and between them they bring 11 points and 6.5 rebounds a game. IF those two step it up, they could make a run at the conference championship, win the UNLV Invitational (I mean MWC tournament), and even make a sweet 16 run in the NCAA tournament. As it is, I think 11-5 or 10-6 is probably about right for them. The loss to Utah at home undid all the good they got from the win at New Mexico. I'm not sure they'll get much higher than an 11-seed unless they can win the MWC tournament. The big key for them is to get a 1, 2, or 3 seed in the conference tournament. If they have to play a quality opponent in the first round, they will be out before their fans come out in full force (i.e. the second round and championship game).

SDSU has an amazing home court advantage. Or maybe it just appears that way because they are so horrid on the road. All 5 losses are on the road with the biggest road win an 8-point W over UC-Santa Barbara. They play at Utah on Tuesday, a loss there proves to me that they are not an NCAA Tournament team. It would also give them 3 conference losses already. With the near-miss against TCU, I'm not sure they can even muster 11-5 in conference: I think the only road game I am sure they will win is at Air Force. Barring a major turnaround, I think the Aztecs will be NIT-bound. Having Billy White back should buoy their lineup a bit. It appeared everyone was a bit tired at UNLV from playing more than usual minutes. He makes them deeper and gives the other guys some more rest. This will benefit in the long run. In the short run, however, it is clear that Billy White is not as explosive yet as he was before the high ankle sprain. He looked timid against TCU and if he plays like that against Utah, he will be completely ineffective and SDSU will lose. A 10-loss MWC team cannot get an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament. I believe they will have at least 8 heading into the MWC tournament: if they have 9, they will need the automatic bid.

Utah has ZERO chance of an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament (as do all those who will follow them here). However, they do have a good chance to get hot and win the MWC Tournament. I suppose I don't give them enough credit: if they do what no other MWC team has done in the history of the conference and win the next 13 to finish 15-1 in conference play, they could get an at-large bid. This is the most schizophrenic team I've seen since, well, last year's Utah team. 4 losses at home. 4 losses by double digits. 4 losses on the road. They aren't exactly road warriors and their home court isn't really secure either. I'm sure they will finish between 4th and 6th in the conference, and I'm sure they will be over .500, but I'm not making any guarantees that they will be much better than 9-7/5th.

My prediction for how the next 4 finish:
CSU: they are only 2nd right now because they have played two of the worst teams in their first 3 games. The slide continues this week with UNLV coming to town and a trip to New Mexico.
Wyoming: Laramie is a lot tougher place to play lately, it might just prove to be the wild card yet, whoever can pick up a win up there stands a good chance of taking the conference crown because I think few teams will be able to walk out of there with a W: New Mexico/CSU 1, rest of the conference 0.
TCU: they have shown they are no pushover, but until they win a road game in January, February, or March, they are going to be near the bottom of the standings.
Air Force: it wasn't that long ago that they were a force to be reckoned with, battling for post-season tournament bids and conference championships. It sure seems like a distant memory though now...