I know I told you not to believe what I say today, but I'm going to make a few predictions anyway.
New Mexico 79, Colorado State 58: the slide continues for CSU as they really hit the meat of the schedule with games at BYU, home against UNLV, and at New Mexico. Most teams in the country would go 0-3 in that stretch, so they shouldn't feel too bad. I think New Mexico is finding its stride a bit (part of that is playing the bottom 3 teams in the conference standings, but still...). This will set up the showdown on Wednesday when BYU comes to town. I believe they will be the top 2 teams in the conference by season's end. I can't wait for that one, except I have to, so...
Utah 63, Air Force 53: several years back this was a great game. Now, it's definitely an afterthought. Utah has been up and down this season. Air Force has pretty much just been down. Utah and Air Force play in a low-scoring, bad offense, type game in Salt Lake City in front of 6,000 die-hard fans. Utah tends to play to the level of the competition, which makes this game one that only a die-hard would want to attend.
UNLV 69, TCU 62: TCU is no slouch, but they just have issues with fan support. UNLV feeds off of energy in the arena, so I think they will play pretty poorly but well enough to win. I am interested to see how they perform against a solid big man in Buljan. UNLV really hasn't faced any big men like him who can handle the ball, shoot from the outside, and are tough, solid rebounders inside.
I have to be honest, I have struggled mightily while analyzing the fourth game of the day, BYU at SDSU. BYU is the better team. I think they have finally figured out how to win on the road, in tough environments. San Diego State does not have the depth that BYU does. Billy White still isn't quite Billy White. DJ Gay missed a clutch free throw at Utah that nearly cost them the game. San Diego State is the worst free-throw shooting team I have ever seen. BYU has one of the best at free throws in the nation this year. SDSU has looked awful their last 4 games. BYU has looked lights out the last 4. But that crowd at SDSU is always rocking like crazy when BYU comes to town. BYU stole one last year, which cost SDSU a conference championship and ended all of their at-large chances for the NCAA tournament. If BYU wins this one, it effectively does the same thing, putting them 3 games behind the conference leader and handing them their 6th loss, with probably 3 more on the schedule before the conference tournament. I believe that BYU will manage to split this road trip at SDSU and New Mexico. Believing that, this would be the game that they more likely would win of the two. To me, everything points to BYU winning this game, and winning by 14 points, something like 78-64, maybe slightly lower scoring at 76-62. My official prediction, however: SDSU 71, BYU 67. This is their Florida State game. Let's just hope the one at New Mexico on Wednesday isn't their TCU game...it'd just be better if they didn't have one of those (at least they scored 4 TDs against Florida State...).
I missed reading your blog before the game. As good as you did on the last game is as bad as you did on this game. It was a nice win and all but guarantees at least a tie for the title. SDSU and UNLV are going to lose again and it is hard to see the Y losing four or five more conference games; possible but not probable. They would have to have some injuries.
ReplyDeleteI was pretty stinking close on the score, I just had the wrong team winning...either way, I missed BYU's score by 4, and SDSU's by 2. Anybody else want to try to do better?
ReplyDeleteAlso, I agree that the win essentially guarantees BYU will win the conference (maybe not outright, but at least a share of it). I know there is a lot of hoops to play yet, but I think BYU at this point loses at most 4 conference games (5 total potential losers: at UNLV, two against New Mexico, at Utah, SDSU; I suppose they could lose at Wyoming or at TCU but I don't think they will at this point) and UNLV, New Mexico, and Utah are all halfway there with 2 losses and everybody else has at least 3 losses already. I think with the win BYU has a chance to go 14-2 but won't go worse than 13-3, ergo, four MWC titles in a row.
This is a BYU team that wins; plain and simple. I don't think they will go untarnished, but I don't think they will lose games they aren't supposed to. BYU will be 14-2 and lose to UNLV in the MWC tournament championship game. They will garner a 4 seed and lose to Kentucky in the Sweet Sixteen.
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