BYU Hoops

Well, looking at BYU's schedule before the season started I circled 4 non-conference games: @ Utah State, Arizona State, @ Arizona, and @ UTEP. I figured if they could go 2-2 in those games, they'd be 14-2 in the non-conference. Right now they are 2-1 with UTEP coming up tonight. If they can pull off the win there, they are ahead of the game, in my eyes.

In conference, I figured they would struggle at home against SDSU and UNLV but still win (which was exactly the case with UNLV), but they should be able to win all of their other home games. They probably lose at SDSU, at New Mexico, and at UNLV. BYU has been able to beat the bottom half of the conference on the road consistently, and I have to assume that trend will continue with how experienced and deep they are. That would put them at 27-5 heading in to the MWC tournament. Assuming they are conference champions and get the #1 seed in the tourney, which they would be at 13-3 in conference, they will likely go 2-1 in the MWC tourney for an overall record of 29-6. I haven't checked out the NCAA tournament schedule to know where they could be seeded based on the Sunday scheduling, but at that record, I thought they should be around a 6 or 7 seed. Again, this was all preliminary to the season. Having seen how they have played to this point, I haven't really changed my tune at all, except that it is a distinct possibility they will be 30-5 or maybe (big maybe), they win the MWC tournament and are 31-4. At 30-5 and losing in the conference championship, with the 13-point win over Arizona State, the 22-point win over Nebraska, and the 30-point win over Arizona (3 teams that are expected to at least be competitive in their BCS conferences), that's probably more of a 5-6 seed range. At 31-4, winning the conference championship beating two of the other 3 potential tourney teams from the MWC in the process, puts them in the 4-5 range. If they get help from Nevada, Utah State, the Arizona schools, and Nebraska in conference play, they could move up to 3-4. I think 30-5 is achievable.

I also think the MWC can get a maximum of 3 teams into the NCAA tournament. Quite frankly, I think they will get 3 in, unless 2 of the top 4 totally collapse during conference play. SDSU is the least likely of the top 4 to get in based on their non-conference performance, barring an amazing run in conference play, which will be tough since Billy White is probably out a while (the swelling hasn't even gone down yet and it's 4 days later!). In the interim they have potential losers at UNLV and at Utah and it's possible he won't even be back for the January 23rd game against BYU. They are currently second in RPI in the conference (according to CBS Sportsline's RPI rankings) with a 2-3 record against the top 100, and have two more losses than BYU (3rd, 3 spots below SDSU, 4-0 against the top 100 with Nebraska and Bradley knocking on the door at 101 and 104 respectively which could make them 6-0), and have the same record as UNLV (who gets to host/win the conference tournament, so RPI and non-conference won't make much difference there...they are 4-3 against the top 100, with all 3 losses coming at the hands of top 50 opponents). New Mexico is in great shape if they can post an 11-5 or 12-4 record in conference play. They are currently 10th in the country in RPI and are 5-1 against the top 100, 4-1 against the top 50. UNLV has the most work to do, but again, they already have one of their 3-5 conference losses and they get to host the conference tournament.

I think BYU, UNLV, and New Mexico will get into the NCAAs, with SDSU going to the NIT. Maybe CSU, Utah, or TCU could sneak into the NIT with a strong conference season, but I think they are probably more likely CBI or no postseason teams. The conference isn't really strong enough from top to bottom to warrant 7 postseason teams but 6 is a possibility and 5 a near certainty with 120+ teams playing in postseason tournaments (assuming two out of CSU, Utah, and TCU segregate themselves from the bottom half of the conference, I'm sure Utah will segregate upwards but I don't know if CSU or TCU will). According to Jeff Sagarin, the MWC is the 7th best conference, holding a slight, ever so slight lead over the Atlantic 10.