Let the Bowling Begin

Well, typically the first Saturday of the bowl season is riddled with games that you don't care about one iota. I think this season we have some very interesting matchups on day one. In fact, I think a lot more bowls than usual are pitting two fairly equal teams against each other. I am glad the Poinsettia Bowl was able to swing Boise State vs. TCU. Otherwise we would have had Boise State vs. Maryland (yawn) and TCU vs. Nevada (zzz). Anyway, now to day one:

Wake Forest vs. Navy. This game puts two fairly similar offenses together. Navy runs the more traditional option. Wake runs the spread option, with a little more passing mixed in. Navy won the game played earlier this season thanks in large part to 6 turnovers by Wake, two in the red zone. The experts say that Wake is a much improved team since then. I personally find that hard to believe considering they went 4-4 after that game, but they could be. On the flip side however, Navy was struggling early on in the season and came on late as well. Wake's D is playing better of late after a mid-season funk, but Navy's D was lights out down the stretch. I know it's tough to beat a team twice in the same season but I believe that Navy will do it, and I think they will win by more than the did the first time. I'm predicted a 10-point win for the Middies, 31-21. It should be interesting to see how the Butkus Award winner does against Navy's option attack. If you hear Aaron Curry's name a dozen or more times, throw my prediction out the window!
Colorado State vs. Fresno State: two pro-style offenses (though I would call Fresno's pro-style with a college twist), two hard-nosed defenses geared to stop the run. This, along with BYU-Zona, is a game where motivation could really favor one opponent. Fresno has done the bowl thing a lot lately and was hoping to bust the BCS this year. Their coach may be moving on to greener pastures (or at least another pasture where people aren't upset with him). With expectations higher this year than last, they performed worse. Their "good" early season wins (and near wins) didn't look as impressive as the season wore on. Rutgers was not good, Wisconsin stunk up the place, and UCLA was, well, in the Pac 10, and not near the top of the standings. Colorado State has been down of late, but not out. The seniors have been to a bowl game ONCE, the others haven't yet. So they will be ready and raring to go. I really think it's tough for ANYBODY to get excited about the New Mexico bowl, but I think the Rams of Colorado State will be pumped enough to take down Pat Hill's Bulldogs, 27-20.
Memphis vs. South Florida: you know how I said most of the bowls look exciting. This is one of those others. I'd love to see Memphis take down their former C-USA foe. They have the offense to do it, but they don't have the defense. South Florida 45-31.

BYU vs. Arizona: well, this should be interesting. First off, let me say: I think this is a bad matchup for BYU: it is a lose-lose situation, and it's against a team they beat last year, who is going to their first bowl game since I was playing high school ball. BYU has had a few games where they absolutely dominated, but has had others where they looked a "little" lackluster/like they didn't belong in the top 20, 30, or even 40. Arizona nearly pulled off an upset against USC and did beat California, but they also lost to New Mexico, Stanford, Oregon, and Oregon State. BYU is 2-2 against teams going bowling and Arizona is 1-3. Both teams are capable of winning BIG, but both are also capable of laying an egg. My guess is one half BYU will dominate and the other Arizona will (and whoever dominates the second half wins). Arizona has the fire of playing in their first bowl game in a long time, but also the lack of familiarity with the environment surrounding bowl games. BYU players feel like Vegas was a disappointing stop for this year's bowl season, but they do know what it takes to prepare for and win a bowl game there against a near-.500 Pac 10 team. I think BYU has enough motivation (seniors playing their last game, some juniors playing to jumpstart next season's potential BCS run, other juniors playing for NFL stock...) to avoid getting blown out. I think Arizona has too much motivation (and speed) to get blown out.
I look for Austin Collie and Dennis Pitta to get theirs, possibly both going for over 100 yards (assuming Pitta doesn't get knocked out early). Harvey Unga needs to get his 75-80 to keep balance offensively and Fui needs to get some carries as well. Besides, the more that BYU runs the ball, the less opportunity there is for Max Hall to turn it over 6 times (though I'm sure they'll come out slinging to "prove" he's a great QB). Defensively, they need to stop the run/short passes and force Arizona to throw the ball deep. They cannot give up short passes and screens all day long and expect to win. Move the corners up about 10 yards, so they appear on my TV screen and it doesn't look like 9 on 11. I do expect a physical game, where offenses dominate. I expect some points to be scored. If it goes in to the high 30's, I like BYU, if it stays below that I like Arizona.
The game will probably come down to Max Hall in the fourth quarter, which, if you saw the Utah game, scares you, but if you saw almost every other game this season, should excite you. I think Arizona's defense (or BYU's QB) makes one more play than BYU's D. Wildcats 35, Other Wild Cats 31. I am not confident enough in the Jekyll and Hyde Cougars to believe they play well enough for 4 quarters to win this game: I hope they prove me wrong! Dead wrong. I'd love to see another 38-8 whooping of a Pac 10 team!