BYU-Utah Teaser

Well, I thought I'd give you a glimpse at the matchups for Saturday's big game. First off, I'd like to thank Pat Forde for the great research he did on the "holy war" (I will never call it that again, there is nothing holy about this rivalry). And thanks for the advice to Max Hall, I sure hope he doesn't throw it to Deshawn Richard, considering the two will likely never be on the field at the same time, unless Max Hall comes out for kickoff return. The mop-up duty safety/special teams gunner and the conference player of the year QB don't face-off against each other too often. Maybe due more research than looking at the stat sheet next time...
Secondly, the vitriol of this rivalry is a bit ridiculous. Both sides think the other side is jealous of their success. Utah, how many 10-win seasons have you had in the last 30 years? Congrats on having two this decade, what an accomplishment. Did you know that until a few weeks ago you hadn't been ranked in 3 full seasons and part of a 4th where BYU has been ranked this entire season and half of the previous two seasons (you know, those seasons you spent hoping to show up in others receiving votes)? BYU, you haven't finished ranked in the top 10 in 12 years, and haven't played in a meaningful (big money) bowl since then, and that streak could extend to 13 if you don't win this weekend. Utah may finish ranked there for the third time since 1994 and play in a second big money bowl in 4 years. Both of you are pretty good non-BCS schools. Neither one of you knocks the socks off the other, and don't bring religion into it. Over half of the U's student population is LDS, so if you hate BYU for being Mormon, you kind of have to hate yourselves. And there are a lot of active church-goers who attend the U, so BYU, don't be hating on the U for being apostate or not good enough to get in to BYU.
Thirdly, I think the similarities of these two teams are a bit uncanny. So here's a look into Mo's mind as the big one approaches.
BYU's D vs. Utah's O: both sides have shown brilliance, and total ineptitude at times during the season. First let's look at coaches: Jaime Hill/Bronco Mendenhall vs. Andy Ludwig. It's a good thing Utah has a lot of talent on offense because if it came down to coaching, I wouldn't like their chances (on a side note, maybe Utah will get lucky and Ludwig will be smart and take a job offer somewhere, that's the only chance they have of building a decent O next year). BYU's D is designed to force teams to drive down the field, and is supposed to prevent big plays. Utah's O is designed to make big plays, but rarely shows the patience to nickel and dime their way down the field. BYU's D hasn't been good at stopping trick plays. Utah's trick play success rate has been so-so, granted every third or fourth play could be considered a "trick play" so let's just call it a "trick offense." BYU has stepped up and made big plays in the red zone in the last two minutes of the game. Utah has choked in the red zone consistently in the first 58 minutes of the game. Utah's O has a little more potential than BYU's D, but has a little less consistency. Against good offenses, BYU has given up yards, and in some cases, points, though they are holding opponents to less than 20 per game. Against good defenses, Utah seems to like scoring 13 points. I'm not going to call BYU's D good, but I'm also not willing to call Utah's O good. Both are "good at times." Which one shows up for each team on Saturday?
BYU's O vs. Utah's D: again, both sides have looked great at times but not stellar at others. The coaches: Gary Anderson vs. Robert Anae, wow, those are some good coaches on both sides, but I'd rather have Gary Anderson, or better yet, I don't need him on my side, let's just hope he takes a coaching job in another conference after the season (or before Saturday...). BYU has gained yards and put up points in bunches, but has had some struggles in the red zone with turnovers. Utah's D has given up yards in bunches, but has been stout in the red zone in forcing field goal attempts (and misses, thankfully). Max Hall makes some sensational throws, and forces some stuff into tight/double coverage. Utah's defense isn't great at defending the pass, but is great at getting pressure on the quarterback. Utah's run defense has been fairly stout (though the stats are somewhat skewed because of all of the sacks, which count against rush yards in college-which is dumb). BYU's rush offense hasn't really been up to par throughout the season. They have had some good games, and they've had some bad games. They seem to live up to challenges because the good games are against good run defenses and the bad games are against bad run defenses. Go figure. Utah has played fundamentally sound during the season. BYU is a pretty basic offense, so being fundamentally sound isn't as crucial, but BYU has shown the ability to mix in a unique set every now and again (usually resulting in a holding penalty on Michael Reed negating the play). Utah's biggest weakness on D (besides 4th and 18 defense): shotgun rushes off-tackle with a lead blocker where those rush ends USED to be. BYU's favorite/only running play: shotgun off-tackle with Fui leading the way. BYU's biggest weakness on O: using the play-action pass before establishing the running game. Utah's biggest strength on D: not falling for the play-action pass when the running game isn't a threat.
The way I see it: strength on strength, weakness on weakness, consistency on consisency, inconsistency on inconsistency. If Utah's offense comes out with a bang, they could blow it open early. If Utah's defense pressures Hall, they could shut him down, like TCU did. If BYU's defense plays fundamentally sound and forces Utah to patiently march downfield, they could hold Utah to a lot of field goals/punts inside the 10-yard line. If BYU's offense can handle the pressure and stick with the running game, they could be unstoppable.
Either team could win big. Or it could come down to Mitch Payne/Louie Sakoda winning or losing it in the closing minutes. Which will it be?
This is a "teaser," i.e. you aren't getting my answer yet.
Rafe, was that good enough unbiased analysis for you?