Saturday, September 5, 2015

BYU at Nebraska Prediction

College football season is underway.  We've had some good matchups around, some close finishes, and some fun already.

Season openers are usually tough to figure out.  Changes in coaching, scheme, and personnel all make huge impacts that aren't always known ahead of time.  Suspensions always seem to play a role too (except in the SEC where you are only suspended if you are actually still in jail at kickoff time).

So, we find out on Saturday where BYU fits this season.  They are playing an above-average team of players, with an above-average coaching staff, in a way-above-average venue.

BYU has plenty of seniors on this roster.  These are guys who have recorded some of the more "fun" wins in recent program history.  They are also guys who have let some slip away, occasionally against inferior opponents.  Nebraska is going to be a challenge.  I think from a personnel perspective, BYU has as many advantages as Nebraska does.

I think both teams will struggle to run the ball consistently between the tackles, at least initially.  Both teams have experienced QBs who can do things with their legs when their arms aren't working.

There's a lot of fresh faces for Nebraska in the passing game.  Some young, but big, linemen are expected to start along with some young, but seemingly skilled, WRs.  They will be testing some young DBs for BYU.  The question for BYU's D: can they get pressure?  If they can, Nebraska's WRs may not be able to gain confidence and play for four quarters.  If they can't, then Nebraska will have a chance to build momentum and that could be dangerous.

For BYU's O, they have to find a way to eke out traditional rushing yards.  They can't rely too much on the pass, Taysom's legs, or the outside rushing attack.  If Nebraska doesn't have to respect the runs between the tackles, they're going to be able to do some other things and take some other risks defensively.  Anae hasn't been known to be the most creative of OC's, so he'd better be able to get some foundational pieces of the offense working.

For special teams, BYU has not really excelled in recent years.  They have had some decent punters and occasional good returns.  Nebraska has had some dynamic players returning kicks in recent days (probably don't have one on Saturday).

I think BYU does get some pressure on Saturday, enough to slow down the Huskers attack to some degree.  Tommy Armstrong has been very good at times in his career, but has also had some baffling possessions too.  Typically, at home, he's been great.  He will need to be good against BYU if he wants to give his team a chance.

In terms of the offense, I'd be surprised if BYU's RBs managed more than 50 rushing yards.  So the game will rest on the arm and legs of Taysom Hill.  His legs can do a lot of damage.  His arm looked pretty great last season as well.  He's going to need to be superb.  I hope he can throw the ball well early b/c that will only open things up for him later.

This is certainly a winnable game for BYU (there isn't a game on the schedule that scares me unless Taysom gets hurt).  Taysom gives you a chance to be in any game.  Bronco coaching defense does the same.  We'll see how that combination works together on Saturday afternoon in Lincoln.  I think the offense won't quite do enough, nor will the defense.  BYU will be close, but not quite...

BYU 17, Nebraska 23.

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