2015 Week 3 Rankings

Another wild one for BYU this weekend.  If not for the late pick six, my model would have been right on with a 4-point BYU win.  This weekend,  BYU sits as an 8.5-point underdog.  That puts BYU covering the 17-point spread but losing.

Last weekend the model correctly identified 87% of winners while going 65% against the spread (lines as of Wednesday night on Vegas Insider).  The model missed these games: Maryland (model basically said it was a pick'em); Houston covering but losing (won by 3); UMass in an upset (got destroyed); Rutgers (lost by 3 to Wazu); Toledo covering but losing (won by 4); Iowa State (game tied late); Tennessee by 6 (led by 14 in 4th Q and lost in OT); Kentucky losing (won by 4); Georgia State losing but covering (won by 2); and Temple losing but covering (won by 8).

It pegged the spread in nine games within a single point and an additional four games within 3 points.  The model predicted 9 upsets and went 6-3 in those picks.  It correctly identified: WKU over La Tech; EMU over Wyoming; Georgia Southern over WMU; Ohio over Marshall; Tulsa over New Mexico; and BYU over Boise State.

5 upset predictions for the week:
Bowling Green over Memphis
Nebraska over Miami
WKU over Indiana
Kentucky over Florida
New Mexico State over UTEP

5 "locks" against the spread:
Northern Illinois +35.5 (tOSU)
OK State -24 (UTSA)
Charlotte +19.5 (Middle Tennessee)
Tulsa +30.5 (Oklahoma)
Georgia St +46.0 (Oregon)

Here are the rankings: Boise State and Arkansas dropped out of the top 25, replaced by BYU and Stanford.  TCU's grip on the #1 spot has all but slipped away as the SOS component starts to take hold and Sparty's close win over Oregon meant as much/more than TCU's rout of an FCS team.  Ohio State, USC, and Alabama can really shrink that gap as they all take on top 50 opponents (Bama against #8 Ole Miss).

Team	Rating	Rank	Prior	Change
TCU	0.7031	1	1	0
Michigan St	0.7030	2	3	1
Ohio St	0.6992	3	2	-1
USC	0.6740	4	4	0
Alabama	0.6693	5	7	2
LSU	0.6687	6	15	9
Baylor	0.6620	7	6	-1
Mississippi	0.6610	8	8	0
Florida St	0.6552	9	9	0
Oregon	0.6550	10	5	-5
UCLA	0.6511	11	10	-1
Missouri	0.6493	12	11	-1
Georgia	0.6471	13	12	-1
Utah	0.6446	14	13	-1
Michigan	0.6347	15	21	6
Oklahoma	0.6279	16	20	4
Texas A&M	0.6255	17	19	2
Notre Dame	0.6239	18	17	-1
Georgia Tech	0.6221	19	18	-1
Arizona St	0.6118	20	24	4
BYU	0.6110	21	26	5
California	0.6104	22	22	0
Tennessee	0.6085	23	14	-9
Stanford	0.6009	24	31	7
Oklahoma St	0.5972	25	23	-2
Arkansas	0.5922	26	16	-10
Wisconsin	0.5895	27	39	12
Texas Tech	0.5894	28	30	2
West Virginia	0.5841	29	29	0
North Carolina	0.5837	30	35	5
Boise St	0.5822	31	25	-6
Auburn	0.5807	32	28	-4
Nebraska	0.5778	33	42	9
Kentucky	0.5745	34	41	7
South Carolina	0.5741	35	27	-8
Arizona	0.5722	36	36	0
NC State	0.5703	37	33	-4
WKU	0.5693	38	40	2
Kansas St	0.5674	39	38	-1
Minnesota	0.5632	40	51	11
Navy	0.5615	41	43	2
N Illinois	0.5613	42	37	-5
Virginia Tech	0.5594	43	45	2
Utah St	0.5579	44	32	-12
Ohio	0.5525	45	44	-1
Bowling Green	0.5522	46	58	12
Penn St	0.5512	47	53	6
Mississippi St	0.5508	48	34	-14
Temple	0.5495	49	50	1
Clemson	0.5472	50	49	-1
Northwestern	0.5457	51	47	-4
Toledo	0.5443	52	73	21
Pittsburgh	0.5437	53	48	-5
Illinois	0.5364	54	74	20
Iowa	0.5356	55	56	1
Duke	0.5351	56	52	-4
Texas	0.5308	57	64	7
Memphis	0.5272	58	57	-1
Miami, FL	0.5219	59	59	0
Washington	0.5165	60	70	10
Cincinnati	0.5154	61	46	-15
Georgia Southern	0.5129	62	77	15
Vanderbilt	0.5125	63	61	-2
Houston	0.5088	64	67	3
Middle Tenn	0.5068	65	55	-10
Purdue	0.5060	66	75	9
Florida	0.5058	67	69	2
Appalachian St	0.4990	68	54	-14
Louisiana	0.4952	69	80	11
Louisville	0.4932	70	68	-2
Syracuse	0.4914	71	76	5
Iowa St	0.4913	72	60	-12
East Carolina	0.4907	73	62	-11
Louisiana Tech	0.4900	74	63	-11
Tulsa	0.4899	75	79	4
Ball St	0.4855	76	65	-11
Marshall	0.4842	77	66	-11
Washington St	0.4767	78	90	12
Indiana	0.4761	79	83	4
Texas St	0.4706	80	91	11
Colorado St	0.4696	81	72	-9
Maryland	0.4677	82	71	-11
San Diego St	0.4636	83	78	-5
Arkansas St	0.4560	84	87	3
Colorado	0.4549	85	99	14
Charlotte	0.4519	86	86	0
Boston College	0.4497	87	92	5
Cent Mich	0.4491	88	96	8
W Michigan	0.4470	89	88	-1
Old Dominion	0.4466	90	89	-1
Rutgers	0.4462	91	82	-9
Oregon St	0.4433	92	84	-8
Air Force	0.4402	93	95	2
SMU	0.4352	94	105	11
Massachusetts	0.4331	95	81	-14
Wake Forest	0.4315	96	85	-11
Buffalo	0.4186	97	93	-4
UCF	0.4181	98	102	4
Virginia	0.4117	99	106	7
Rice	0.4105	100	97	-3
New Mexico	0.4091	101	94	-7
Akron	0.4087	102	104	2
FIU	0.4062	103	98	-5
Troy	0.4026	104	109	5
USF	0.4023	105	103	-2
Fresno St	0.4012	106	100	-6
Connecticut	0.4000	107	107	0
Georgia St	0.3998	108	114	6
Southern Miss	0.3995	109	113	4
San Jose St	0.3953	110	101	-9
Kent St	0.3904	111	118	7
Hawaii	0.3871	112	108	-4
Tulane	0.3781	113	111	-2
UTEP	0.3728	114	116	2
New Mexico St	0.3697	115	112	-3
ULM	0.3599	116	121	5
South Alabama	0.3528	117	117	0
Nevada	0.3520	118	115	-3
Kansas	0.3448	119	119	0
North Texas	0.3431	120	110	-10
FAU	0.3346	121	120	-1
UTSA	0.3136	122	123	1
E Michigan	0.3113	123	127	4
Army	0.3049	124	124	0
Idaho	0.3049	125	125	0
Miami, OH	0.2955	126	122	-4
UNLV	0.2942	127	126	-1
Wyoming	0.2300	128	128	0