Week 5 Rankings, Week 4 Recap

The model went 46-12 this past weekend and 29-21 against the spread.  The model didn't do as well on upsets this week as Tennessee clutched defeat from the jaws of victory, NIU came up 3 points short against BC, Mizzou couldn't get over the hump against Kentucky, and Arizona State came up just 4 TDs short against USC...

My top 5 locks ended up all being right.  My "next five" showed why I wasn't as confident in them, going a lowly 2-3.

This weeks upsets include:
Tulane over UCF
Illinois over Nebraska
UTEP over UTSA

The 5 locks of the week:
UTEP +3 (UTSA)
Navy -5.5 (Air Force)
NC State -4.5 (Louisville)
TCU -15 (Texas)
Louisiana Lafayette +18 (Louisiana Tech)

The "next" 5:
BYU -17.5 (UConn)
Missouri -2.5 (South Carolina)
Texas Tech +17 (Baylor)
Illinois +6.5 (Nebraska)
Appalachian State -25.5 (Wyoming)

The model has 13 games within 1 point of what the Vegas betting line is.

4 teams dropped out of the top 25 this past weekend; BYU, Georgia Tech, Tennessee, and Arizona State.  They were replaced by West Virginia, Oklahoma State, NC State, and Boise State.  Utah and USC made big jumps.  The margin between TCU, Ohio State, and Michigan State remains razor thin (and fluid).  I found a strength of schedule issue in the model, so there's some potential variance to be had there; I hope to fix it by next week.  Between a full-time job, coaching HS football, and being a dad, I have a tough time keeping up with my hobby from time to time!

Team	Rating	Rank	Prior	Change
TCU	0.7126	1	3	2
Ohio St	0.7053	2	1	-1
Michigan St	0.7000	3	2	-1
LSU	0.6937	4	4	0
Mississippi	0.6893	5	5	0
Utah	0.6889	6	10	4
UCLA	0.6787	7	8	1
USC	0.6693	8	13	5
Baylor	0.6692	9	9	0
Florida St	0.6673	10	6	-4
Georgia	0.6565	11	7	-4
Oklahoma	0.6509	12	16	4
Alabama	0.6493	13	12	-1
Notre Dame	0.6469	14	15	1
Michigan	0.6435	15	18	3
Texas A&M	0.6416	16	17	1
California	0.6393	17	20	3
Stanford	0.6338	18	19	1
Oregon	0.6200	19	11	-8
Missouri	0.6159	20	14	-6
West Virginia	0.6125	21	28	7
Oklahoma St	0.6108	22	26	4
NC State	0.5983	23	31	8
Boise St	0.5976	24	30	6
Texas Tech	0.5972	25	21	-4
Wisconsin	0.5967	26	29	3
BYU	0.5903	27	22	-5
Tennessee	0.5889	28	24	-4
North Carolina	0.5886	29	27	-2
Temple	0.5838	30	38	8
Georgia Tech	0.5829	31	25	-6
Navy	0.5822	32	33	1
Northwestern	0.5792	33	36	3
Arizona St	0.5778	34	23	-11
Minnesota	0.5766	35	39	4
Kentucky	0.5761	36	45	9
Toledo	0.5745	37	42	5
Mississippi St	0.5743	38	48	10
Clemson	0.5743	39	41	2
Kansas St	0.5736	40	35	-5
Memphis	0.5632	41	52	11
Penn St	0.5615	42	44	2
Iowa	0.5586	43	49	6
South Carolina	0.5585	44	43	-1
Nebraska	0.5560	45	46	1
WKU	0.5555	46	47	1
Florida	0.5549	47	54	7
Arizona	0.5525	48	34	-14
Virginia Tech	0.5520	49	32	-17
Miami, FL	0.5487	50	53	3
Arkansas	0.5463	51	40	-11
Bowling Green	0.5440	52	57	5
Auburn	0.5416	53	37	-16
Houston	0.5412	54	60	6
Duke	0.5388	55	63	8
Ohio	0.5345	56	51	-5
Illinois	0.5311	57	61	4
Pittsburgh	0.5250	58	59	1
Appalachian St	0.5243	59	70	11
N Illinois	0.5241	60	50	-10
Washington	0.5193	61	56	-5
Georgia Southern	0.5193	62	64	2
Middle Tenn	0.5172	63	58	-5
Utah St	0.5169	64	55	-9
Indiana	0.5077	65	68	3
Vanderbilt	0.5050	66	66	0
Marshall	0.5009	67	69	2
Texas	0.4974	68	62	-6
Cincinnati	0.4957	69	65	-4
Syracuse	0.4951	70	67	-3
Tulsa	0.4890	71	72	1
Louisiana Tech	0.4885	72	75	3
East Carolina	0.4864	73	80	7
Colorado	0.4800	74	78	4
Ball St	0.4755	75	71	-4
Louisville	0.4736	76	79	3
Iowa St	0.4642	77	77	0
Boston College	0.4622	78	88	10
Maryland	0.4584	79	76	-3
Purdue	0.4583	80	74	-6
Washington St	0.4583	81	81	0
Air Force	0.4571	82	86	4
Colorado St	0.4530	83	85	2
Arkansas St	0.4518	84	82	-2
W Michigan	0.4477	85	84	-1
Louisiana	0.4433	86	73	-13
Akron	0.4431	87	99	12
Oregon St	0.4390	88	83	-5
Rutgers	0.4339	89	94	5
Cent Mich	0.4322	90	91	1
San Diego St	0.4192	91	93	2
Wake Forest	0.4188	92	89	-3
Texas St	0.4178	93	87	-6
Southern Miss	0.4162	94	98	4
Rice	0.4149	95	97	2
Massachusetts	0.4085	96	100	4
New Mexico	0.4064	97	103	6
Buffalo	0.4063	98	92	-6
SMU	0.4056	99	90	-9
Kent St	0.4054	100	112	12
FIU	0.4023	101	102	1
San Jose St	0.3956	102	115	13
Virginia	0.3951	103	101	-2
Old Dominion	0.3938	104	96	-8
Hawaii	0.3926	105	104	-1
USF	0.3908	106	109	3
Charlotte	0.3904	107	95	-12
Georgia St	0.3904	108	106	-2
Troy	0.3895	109	107	-2
UTEP	0.3890	110	110	0
Connecticut	0.3888	111	105	-6
Tulane	0.3736	112	111	-1
Nevada	0.3718	113	117	4
UCF	0.3684	114	113	-1
Fresno St	0.3648	115	108	-7
ULM	0.3648	116	116	0
South Alabama	0.3584	117	114	-3
FAU	0.3362	118	122	4
UNLV	0.3293	119	124	5
New Mexico St	0.3164	120	118	-2
Army	0.3039	121	127	6
Kansas	0.3027	122	119	-3
North Texas	0.3020	123	121	-2
Idaho	0.3015	124	120	-4
UTSA	0.2932	125	123	-2
Miami, OH	0.2800	126	126	0
E Michigan	0.2714	127	125	-2
Wyoming	0.1992	128	128	0