Week 4 Rankings, Week 3 Recap

Another money-making week for the model.  The model correctly identified 80% of all winners and went 63% against the spread.  The 8 upsets the model picked didn't go as well, as most of the upset teams came up just short (but covered in all cases but one).  It went 2-6 in upsets; the 6 losses were by a combined 21 points.  7 of my top 10 covered (4-1 on the 5 "locks" I posted).

BYU covered and lost, which is how I had it going.  But it was still painful to watch.  More painful yet is knowing that BYU would probably be ranked in the top 10-12 at this point, with still a few good opportunities to move up on its own, not even counting losses piling up for some pretenders.  The model projects Michigan winning and covering the current 4.5-point spread.  After the way UCLA ran the ball against BYU, it's tough to see how that will change this weekend; however, the BYU secondary should be up to the task against a bad QB.  With that said, BYU has a way of making average players look phenomenal.

Only 4 upset picks this week (although I haven't been able to find a line on one game this week: Indiana-Wake Forest, which the model gives to Indiana by 2.5 points).
Arizona State over USC
Northern Illinois over Boston College
Tennessee over Florida
Missouri over Kentucky

The 5 "locks" of the week:
Boise State -2.5 (at Virginia)
South Carolina -14.5 (UCF)
Navy -6.5 (at Connecticut)
New Mexico -3 (at Wyoming)
Syracuse +24 (LSU)

Next 5:
Buffalo -2 (Nevada)
Western Kentucky -20.5 (Miami, OH)
Charlotte -7.5 (Florida Atlantic)
Michigan State -27 (Central Michigan)
Toledo -7.5 (Arkansas State)

The model would suggest Utah -14 is a strong play as well (actually in the top 5 locks), but I cannot in good faith recommend that b/c my experiences with many Utah fans the past 10 years means that I hope Utah doesn't cover.  Ever again.

Team	Rating	Rank	Prior
Ohio St	0.7082	1	3
Michigan St	0.7071	2	2
TCU	0.7027	3	1
LSU	0.6889	4	6
Mississippi	0.6842	5	8
Florida St	0.6646	6	9
Georgia	0.6645	7	13
UCLA	0.6608	8	11
Baylor	0.6602	9	7
Utah	0.6595	10	14
Oregon	0.6553	11	10
Alabama	0.6525	12	5
USC	0.6470	13	4
Missouri	0.6438	14	12
Notre Dame	0.6435	15	18
Oklahoma	0.6415	16	16
Texas A&M	0.6303	17	17
Michigan	0.6286	18	15
Stanford	0.6260	19	24
California	0.6257	20	22
Texas Tech	0.6109	21	28
BYU	0.6105	22	21
Arizona St	0.6094	23	20
Tennessee	0.6089	24	23
Georgia Tech	0.6066	25	19
Oklahoma St	0.6001	26	25
North Carolina	0.5967	27	30
West Virginia	0.5955	28	29
Wisconsin	0.5941	29	27
Boise St	0.5837	30	31
NC State	0.5834	31	37
Virginia Tech	0.5767	32	43
Navy	0.5761	33	41
Arizona	0.5760	34	36
Kansas St	0.5735	35	39
Northwestern	0.5707	36	51
Auburn	0.5698	37	32
Temple	0.5697	38	49
Minnesota	0.5687	39	40
Arkansas	0.5648	40	26
Clemson	0.5647	41	50
Toledo	0.5622	42	52
South Carolina	0.5612	43	35
Penn St	0.5594	44	47
Kentucky	0.5576	45	34
Nebraska	0.5562	46	33
WKU	0.5543	47	38
Mississippi St	0.5537	48	48
Iowa	0.5536	49	55
N Illinois	0.5509	50	42
Ohio	0.5508	51	45
Memphis	0.5497	52	58
Miami, FL	0.5399	53	59
Florida	0.5358	54	67
Utah St	0.5350	55	44
Washington	0.5341	56	60
Bowling Green	0.5328	57	46
Middle Tenn	0.5303	58	65
Pittsburgh	0.5291	59	53
Houston	0.5209	60	64
Illinois	0.5186	61	54
Texas	0.5162	62	57
Duke	0.5159	63	56
Georgia Southern	0.5151	64	62
Cincinnati	0.5134	65	61
Vanderbilt	0.5124	66	63
Syracuse	0.5037	67	71
Indiana	0.4960	68	79
Marshall	0.4912	69	77
Appalachian St	0.4910	70	68
Ball St	0.4901	71	76
Tulsa	0.4860	72	75
Louisiana	0.4854	73	69
Purdue	0.4810	74	66
Louisiana Tech	0.4794	75	74
Maryland	0.4771	76	82
Iowa St	0.4755	77	72
Colorado	0.4718	78	85
Louisville	0.4713	79	70
East Carolina	0.4712	80	73
Washington St	0.4709	81	78
Arkansas St	0.4687	82	84
Oregon St	0.4542	83	92
W Michigan	0.4517	84	89
Colorado St	0.4476	85	81
Air Force	0.4444	86	93
Texas St	0.4433	87	80
Boston College	0.4402	88	87
Wake Forest	0.4382	89	96
SMU	0.4369	90	94
Cent Mich	0.4335	91	88
Buffalo	0.4332	92	97
San Diego St	0.4321	93	83
Rutgers	0.4298	94	91
Charlotte	0.4277	95	86
Old Dominion	0.4274	96	90
Rice	0.4253	97	100
Southern Miss	0.4216	98	109
Akron	0.4184	99	102
Massachusetts	0.4182	100	95
Virginia	0.4166	101	99
FIU	0.4163	102	103
New Mexico	0.4018	103	101
Hawaii	0.4003	104	112
Connecticut	0.4002	105	107
Georgia St	0.3954	106	108
Troy	0.3951	107	104
Fresno St	0.3926	108	106
USF	0.3903	109	105
UTEP	0.3903	110	114
Tulane	0.3859	111	113
Kent St	0.3834	112	111
UCF	0.3791	113	98
South Alabama	0.3788	114	117
San Jose St	0.3785	115	110
ULM	0.3676	116	116
Nevada	0.3508	117	118
New Mexico St	0.3413	118	115
Kansas	0.3171	119	119
Idaho	0.3163	120	125
North Texas	0.3153	121	120
FAU	0.3128	122	121
UTSA	0.3075	123	122
UNLV	0.3020	124	127
E Michigan	0.2992	125	123
Miami, OH	0.2898	126	126
Army	0.2847	127	124
Wyoming	0.2139	128	128