As some of you know, I put together a model to predict how teams will perform. I update it on a weekly basis once the season starts. I still have one tweak to make for the preseason, but here are the early returns for conference standings, playoff, and New Year's 6 Bowl games.
American Athletic Conference
With the addition of Navy in 2015, the AAC now has two divisions and a conference championship game. This is mostly a geographic alignment, with the exception of Navy being east of a couple of teams in the East while playing in the West. It's much better than the mess the Big Ten rolled out with a few years back.
East
1. East Carolina 7-1
2. Cincinnati 6-2
3. Temple 6-2
4. UCF 4-4
5. Connecticut 1-7
6. South Florida 0-8
West
1. Navy 8-0
2. Memphis 5-3
3. Tulsa 4-4
4. Houston 4-4
5. SMU 2-6
6. Tulane 1-7
If Navy were, in fact, to go 8-0 in conference play, they would host the conference championship game and emerge victorious over East Carolina. However, if they finish 7-1 and ECU hosts, ECU wins. As a side note/interesting fact, Navy would the first team I'm aware of to win (or play in) a conference championship game before their regular season is over. They would play Army on December 12th, one week following the AAC Title Game. I'm glad the AAC allowed this tradition of Army-Navy to continue. But it will be weird.
ACC
Atlantic
1. Florida State 7-1
2. NC State 5-3
3. Louisville 5-3
4. Clemson 3-5
5. Syracuse 3-5
6. Boston College 1-7
7. Wake Forest 0-8
Coastal
1. Georgia Tech 8-0
2. Virginia Tech 7-1
3. North Carolina 6-2
4. Duke 5-3
5. Pittsburgh 4-4
6. Miami 2-6
7. Virginia 0-8
Florida State beats Georgia Tech for the Title. At 12-1, Florida State is a likely playoff team.
Big XII
1. TCU 9-0
2. Baylor 8-1
3t. Oklahoma 5-4
3t. Oklahoma St 5-4
3t. West Virginia 5-4
6. Texas 4-5
7. Texas Tech 4-5
8. Kansas State 4-5
9. Iowa State 1-8
10. Kansas 0-9
TCU's and Baylor's non-conference schedules are pathetic. The model has both 11-0 in their matchup the last week of the season. The winner advances to the playoff. TCU is the winner according to the model.
Big Ten
East
1. Michigan 8-0
2. Ohio State 7-1
3. Michigan State 6-2
4. Penn State 5-3
5t. Indiana 1-7
5t. Maryland 1-7
5t. Rutgers 1-7
West
1. Minnesota 6-2
2. Nebraska 6-2
3. Wisconsin 6-2
4. Iowa 4-4
5. Northwestern 3-5
6. Purdue 2-6
7. Illinois 0-8
The model likes Harbaugh. They also get Sparty and Ohio State at home. Model has them beating Minnesota (who definitely benefits from coaching turnover at Nebraska and Wisconsin to win the West) handily in the title game. At 12-1, the winner of the top-heavy Big Ten East is a playoff contender. The lone projected loss for Michigan: an opening-week 1-point loss at Utah.
Conference USA
East
1. Western Kentucky 8-0
2t. Middle Tennesee 6-2
2t. Old Dominion 6-2
4. Marshall 6-2
5. Charlotte 4-4
6. FIU 2-6
7. FAU 0-8
West
1. Louisiana Tech 7-1
2. Rice 5-3
3. Southern Miss 3-5
4. UTEP 3-5
5. North Texas 2-6
6. UTSA 0-8
Western Kentucky hosts Louisiana Tech in the championship game and wins by a TD.
Independents
Notre Dame 10-2
BYU (I'll post at length later)
Army 3-9
MAC
East (due to 7-team division, no head-to-head tie-breaker for 2nd place, is for 6th)
1. Bowling Green 8-0
2t. Ohio 6-2
2t. Massachusetts 6-2
4. Akron 5-3
5. Kent State 2-6
6. Buffalo 1-7
7. Miami (OH) 1-7
West
1. Northern Illinois 8-0
2t. Ball State 4-4
2t. Toledo 4-4
2t. Western Michigan 4-4
5. Central Michigan 3-5
6. Eastern Michigan 0-8
Northern Illinois wins a close one in the title game over Bowling Green.
Mountain West
Mountain
1. Utah State 8-0
2. Boise State 7-1
3. Colorado State 6-2
4. New Mexico 4-4
5. Air Force 4-4
6. Wyoming 1-7
West
1. San Diego State 6-2
2. San Jose State 4-4
3. Nevada 3-5
4. Hawaii 3-5
5. Fresno State 2-6
6. UNLV 0-8
Utah State handles SDSU easily to win the MWC. At 12-1, lone loss at Utah, the Aggies should be the best positioned G5 for a New Year's 6 Bowl.
Pac 12
North
1. Oregon 8-1
2. Stanford 7-2
3. California 3-6
4. Washington 3-6
5. Washington State 2-7
6. Oregon State 1-8
South
1. USC 7-2
2. Utah 7-2
3. Arizona State 7-2
4. UCLA 6-3
5. Arizona 3-6
6. Colorado 0-9
Oregon beats USC but is only 11-2 after losses at Michigan State and Arizona State. That puts the Pac 12 in a precarious position. The model projects every other P5 conference champ with 0/1 loss.
SEC
West
1. Alabama 7-1
2. Ole Miss 7-1
3. LSU 6-2
4. Arkansas 4-4
5. Texas A&M 4-4
6. Auburn 1-7
7. Mississippi State 1-7
East
1. Georgia 7-1
2. Missouri 6-2
3. Tennessee 6-2
4. South Carolina 3-5
5. Vanderbilt 2-6
6. Kentucky 2-6
7. Florida 0-8
Alabama beats Georgia in a thriller. At 12-1, the SEC Champ is going to the playoff.
Sun Belt
1. Appalachian State 8-0
2t. Arkansas State 7-1
2t. Georgia Southern 7-1
4. UL-Lafayette 6-2
5. Texas State 5-3
6. New Mexico State 4-4
7. Troy 3-5
8. Georgia State 2-6
9t. ULM 1-7
9t. South Alabama 1-7
11. Idaho 0-8
Playoff pairings:
#1 TCU vs #4 Michigan
#2 Alabama vs #3 Florida State
The 8 teams playing in New Year's bowls are likely:
Georgia Tech
Baylor
Ohio State
Michigan State
Notre Dame
Utah State (automatic)
Oregon (automatic)
Ole Miss
No comments:
Post a Comment