The Week That Was For BYU

BYU brought home two more road victories this week, giving them 11 wins away from the Marriott Center, by winning at 5th place San Francisco and at last place Santa Clara.  More importantly, they kept pace in the WCC race, which got a lot tighter with two upsets this week (Loyola Marymount beating St. Mary's and Gonzaga losing at San Francisco).  They are now tied in second with Gonzaga, just one game behind suddenly struggling St. Mary's.  The impressive part about this team is that it truly has been a team effort.

This week demonstrated that as much as any other.  Carlino went off for 30 points, including hitting the game-winner with 18 seconds left at San Francisco.  Davies and Hartsock follow that up with both going for 20 the next game at Santa Clara.  Abouo pitched in double-digit scoring in both games.  Zylstra added 12 at Santa Clara.  Nate Austin scored a combined 12 off the bench while providing 35 minutes of much-needed rest to Davies and Hartsock.

While I don't necessarily enjoy Zylstra, this team has 8 guys that I would not have a problem seeing on the floor in a tight game.  That doesn't appear to be particularly deep, but if you consider that Collinsworth and Rogers are both out with injuries, it means that the team started with 10 guys the fans could (mostly) trust.  At point guard, Carlino is backed up by Cusick, who takes care of the ball and plays very good defense.  At off-guard, Anson Winder is backed up by both Zylstra and Cusick.  At the 3, Charles Abouo is backed up by Zylstra (and potentially Winder if BYU goes with a small lineup).  At the 4/5 spots, Brandon Davies and Noah Hartsock are backed up by Nate Austin.

If Stephen Rogers returns to the fold, that is a pretty solid 9.  If BYU wants to make any kind of serious run in March, it will certainly need Rogers' ability to stretch the floor on O, and be another potential body on D to the foul-prone Abouo, Davies, and Austin.  Josh Sharp doesn't give BYU much on either side of the floor right now.  Damarcus Harrison is a lot better on D right now than he is on O, but BYU doesn't need another guy off the bench to play D.  In February, those guys can give you a half-dozen minutes in a pinch.  In March, however, they can't give you anything.  Maybe Harrison can help slow down a dangerous SG/SF if Winder or Abouo gets in foul trouble (provided he agrees not to shoot the ball on O), but that's it.

Anyway, BYU should make the tournament, regardless of the result against Gonzaga, so they are just playing for seeding at this point.  With so many guys banged up, I wonder if that will result in some tentative play on Thursday.  Hartsock took a nasty fall and was "scared" about his knee.  How will that impact his aggressiveness against the Zags?  A win would lock up the 2-seed and double-bye in the conference tournament, and it could give them a share of the conference title should St. Mary's trip up at San Francisco.  A loss could potentially drop them down to 4th place and a quarterfinal rematch against surging San Francisco.  However, with back-to-back road games scoring in the 80's, BYU should have the confidence to match up against anyone in the conference on a neutral floor.

This is an exciting time of year.  BYU continues the same kind of dominance in February that it had in the MWC: they win all the games they should win.  Next up comes their first real challenge of February.  Given how the last two games against Gonzaga have played out (2011 NCAA Tourney and 2012 WCC Game), it will be interesting to see how BYU handles the road environment.  Clearly, the Cougars are the type of team that Gonzaga struggles against.  Will the home crowd help push the Zags over the hump or will the make-up of the BYU roster and their style of play continue to be too much for them?

Like I said, it's a fun time of year.  I expect a good game on Thursday.  I expect a tight, back-and-forth game and I anticipate BYU will be within striking distance in the final 4 minutes.  Being that The Kennel is such a hostile environment, I anticipate the young guards to buckle under the pressure for a significant stretch at some point over the 40 minutes.  That will prove to be too much to overcome and the Zags win about 74-68.  The thing BYU has going for it: it plays much more efficient O than Gonzaga.  If it comes down to a high-scoring shootout, BYU would seem to be the favorite.  Zags keep it at about 145 points or less, Zags should get it.  Zags get this one.  (As if I would jinx the Cougars by picking them to win: that's a sure-fire sign of a blowout loss!)