The following conferences are all guaranteed one-bid leagues (10 Bids): America East, Big Sky, Big South, Colonial, MEAC, Northeast, Patriot, Southern, Southland, and SWAC. Whoever wins the conference tournament makes the NCAA Tournament, no one else has a chance.
The following conferences could see a regular season conference champion in contention for an at-large bid to the tournament if they don't win the conference tournament (10 Bids): Atlantic Sun, Big West, Horizon, Ivy, MAAC, MAC, Ohio Valley, Summit, Sun Belt, and WAC.
Here is a list of the teams from the conferences listed above: Belmont, Long Beach State, Cleveland State, Harvard, Iona, Akron, Murray State, Oral Roberts, Middle Tennessee State, and Nevada. Realistically, Murray State is the only near-certainty from this list, though a loss to St. Mary's next week could hurt their chances. The other teams would probably need to win out and play in the conference tournament championship game to be real consideration for an at-large bid. Harvard would have to lose two more games to not win the Ivy League (no conference tournament), which I think would probably necessarily eliminate them from at-large contention, so I think the Ivy League is a one-bid maximum league. Long Beach State, Harvard, Middle Tennessee State, and Oral Roberts all have top 50 RPIs at the moment and, along with Murray State, are the likely candidates to get at-larges if they don't win their conference tournaments: bubble teams should pray they all win their conference tourneys to eliminate any doubt. Belmont, Cleveland State, Iona, Akron, and Nevada don't really have any shots at any at-large consideration, but a lot of the "experts" leave them on their "boards" so I will too. (2 Bids)
Here are my multi-bid leagues and my "locks" for the tourney.
Atlantic 10 (2 Bids): Temple and Saint Louis. Xavier and UMass are in contention for an at-large.
ACC (4 Bids): Duke, North Carolina, Florida State, and Virginia. Miami and NC State in contention, ultimately, one of them probably makes the tournament.
Big XII (4 Bids): Kansas, Missouri, Baylor, Iowa State. Kansas State and Texas in contention (K-State might have locked in but for an epic second half collapse on Saturday at Texas), one of those two should make the tourney.
Big East (5 Bids, don't freak out, plenty of Bubble Candidates here, I'm only doing locks): Syracuse, Marquette, Notre Dame, Louisville, Georgetown. Cincinnati, West Virginia, Seton Hall, Connecticut are all in contention, at least two of them WILL make the tourney, and probably three. Pitt and South Florida aren't out totally of it yet (unfortunately).
Big Ten (5 Bids, see Big East explanation): Ohio State, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Indiana. Illinois, Northwestern, Purdue, Minnesota are in the mix. While no one outside of the committee wants to see a 12-loss Big Ten team in the NCAA tournament, I think we'll see at least two.
CUSA (2 Bids): Southern Mississippi and Memphis. UCF in contention.
Missouri Valley (2 Bids): Wichita State and Creighton.
Mountain West (2 Bids): UNLV and San Diego State. New Mexico, Wyoming, and Colorado State in contention.
Pac 12 (2 Bids, but 0 Locks): California, Washington, Oregon, Arizona, and Colorado, plus whichever of 8 possible teams that win the conference tournament, in contention. League probably gets two bids, with a maximum of three. Arizona, Cal, and Washington are my best guesses at the possibilities for the NCAA Tournament, in that order. I think we'll see regular season and conference tournament champs get in.
SEC (4 Bids): Kentucky, Florida, Mississippi State, and Vanderbilt. Alabama probably gets in. Ole Miss and Arkansas in contention.
WCC (2 Bids): Saint Mary's and Gonzaga. BYU, like Alabama, probably gets in.
So that's 56 bids spoken for. That leaves 12 left, to be fought for by the following 22 teams:
Xavier, UMass, NC State, Miami, Kansas State, Texas, Cincinnati, West Virginia, Seton Hall, Connecticut, Illinois, Northwestern, Purdue, Minnesota, UCF, New Mexico, Wyoming, Colorado State, Alabama, Ole Miss, Arkansas, and BYU.
When you boil it down to this, it's really not that complicated. It's not a weak bubble or a deep bubble, it's a bubble. It's a bunch of teams that, with a good win, a bad loss, or a great showing in their conference tournament, will probably ultimately determine their own fate in the next four weeks.
I think Xavier and UMass play their way out of this, though Xavier is more likely to stay in the mix.
NC State or Miami take one.
Kansas State or Texas take one.
The Big East accounts for three bids. I know most "experts" have West Virginia and UConn as locks but West Virginia has lost 5 of their last 6 and UConn 6 of their last 7, so I can't assume their losing trends won't continue and eliminate them. Cincinnati seems a safe bet since their toughest games are behind them and most people assume they are in the field. I think Seton Hall plays its way off of here, maybe at the benefit of a Pitt jumping in the discussion?
There are two bids available for Big Ten teams, and it wouldn't shock me to see three. I just think this is gross. I think all four of the Big Ten bubble teams will have at least 11 losses, probably even see three of them with 12 losses, but they'll still get a few bids.
Sorry, UCF, they must win the CUSA Tournament.
New Mexico probably gets one bid and, short of winning the conference tournament, Wyoming and Colorado State are not going to make it.
Alabama takes one bid. I don't really believe Ole Miss and Arkansas make it.
BYU takes one bid pretty easily at this point, barring some issues on the road or an early conference tournament loss.
This leaves two bids left. Both bids will go to BCS conference schools. I assume there will be one or two conference tournament upsets in the BCS leagues, and some fringe BCS bubble team (like Arkansas as a perfect example) will make an amazing run and get themselves into the play-in game, or win their conference tournament and get a 13-seed. The Pac 12 situation is a total mess so there's always a possibility of three teams coming from there. The Committee likes to award 8 or 9 Big Ten/East teams, which I cannot in my right mind account for or predict. So I have no idea which 12-loss, 4-games under .500 in conference play, BCS conference team will be rewarded. Seton Hall and pick-your-lousy Big Ten team? I also wouldn't count the NC State-Miami or Kansas State-Texas loser out. Maybe next weekend I'll get around to seeding them.
Honestly, my least favorite part about the Selection Committee, if you couldn't tell, is the last four/eight teams they put in the tournament. I'd rather see a team from a smaller conference that's 2-3 against the RPI top 50 have a shot than the BCS conference team that's 5-9, and I don't think I'm alone. All those BCS conference teams have done is lost their big games. Don't blame the small conference teams for not having the chance to play in big games. Just look at Butler, VCU, George Mason for recent examples of teams that didn't play the toughest schedules but, when they got a chance in the tournament, made special things happen. When was the last time we saw a low-seeded Big Ten team significantly overachieve in the NCAA Tournament? How many Big East 5/6 seeds are the ones that get upset by those 11/12 seeds in the first round? Come on, Committee, let pretzel boy play!
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