Oh, Lunardi...

Last year was the MWC's strongest season ever, with three teams in the dance, all single digit seeds, with two of them advancing to the Sweet 16.  This year, the league is pretty good with three NCAA Tournament caliber teams.  BYU and Utah have obviously left the league, which kind of hurt the MWC.  Other teams have emerged this year and Utah is awful, so the league is in good shape, but it's not like last season.  CSU, which currently sits in a tie for 4th place in the standings, is considered an NCAA Tournament bubble team.  After a big win at home against New Mexico on Tuesday night, Lunardi threw them as the last team into his field of 68.

That's a nice story.  Now, let's look at a few facts about CSU and then some MWC history.  One, CSU has only 2 wins over the RPI top 50.  Two, CSU has only 2 road wins, and both are outside the RPI top 100.  Three, CSU has 3 losses outside the RPI top 100.  That doesn't scream NCAA Tournament team to anyone.

Now the MWC history: no MWC team has ever got into the tournament via at-large bid with 9 losses.  CSU is currently 17-9.  The worst MWC team to ever get an at-large bid was the 2011 UNLV Rebels at 24-8, which had made the tournament 3 of the prior 4 seasons and advanced to the Sweet 16 once in that span.  They had a coach that had been to a Final Four and had led four different teams to the NCAA Tournament.  In 2009, legendary coach Steve Fischer and the SDSU Aztecs were 23-9: no bid.  In 2008, Big Ten legend Steve Alford and the New Mexico Lobos were 24-8: no bid.  They actually set a record that year for being the team with the highest RPI to ever miss the NCAA Tournament.  CSU hasn't been to the tournament since 2003. Their coach hasn't ever coached in the NCAA Tournament.  What are the odds that THIS team breaks a long-standing trend?

If CSU needs an at-large bid, it means they didn't win the MWC Tourney, which means the best record they could possibly have is 22-10, and that assumes wins at SDSU, home against UNLV, and two in the conference tournament, likely against TCU and New Mexico.  It's a nice story.  I love Tim Miles, he's a great guy.  But an MWC team with double digit losses is going to the NIT.  CSU will have a chance to make some serious noise there, however.  And with 6 significant contributors returning next season, 2012-2013 might be the year for the Rams to make the NCAA Tournament.  If they can rattle off 5 straight wins, I'll be willing to put them back in the discussion, but for now, they are a fringe team at best.  RPI is only one criteria and it's the only one even close to putting CSU in the discussion here.  Look at everything the Committee looks at.  Look at the history.  Sorry, Rams...