Significant Movement in Mo's Field

I listed 10 guaranteed 1-Bid Leagues last week, however, this week, I'm ready to go ahead and stomp my foot down on a few others.  So there are 16 conferences that will only send one team to the NCAA Tournament.  Period.  Last week, I had these 10: America East, Big Sky, Big South, Colonial, MEAC, Northeast, Patriot, Southern, Southland, and SWAC.  This week, I'm willing to concede that Atlantic Sun, Horizon, Ivy, MAC, Sun Belt, and WAC will be one-bid leagues.

Belmont (Atlantic Sun) has an RPI in the 70's and they are without a top 100 game on the remainder of their schedule, so that won't improve.  Cleveland State got drubbed at home by Drexel in Bracketbusters and that eliminated any chance for an at-large.  Harvard beat Yale Saturday night, so the only way they would need an at-large is if they lose at least two more regular season games, and if they lose two more, they don't have the resume to make the tournament.  Akron lost at Oral Roberts which ended any hope they had of making it as an at-large.  Middle Tennessee is also negatively impacted by Akron's loss, since their "best" win was at home against Akron.  Their only chance at another top 100 win (to get them to 5) would be in the conference tourney against Denver (if Denver can stay in the top 100).  Nevada lost at Iona in their Bracketbuster matchup, which strengthens the Gaels position but kills any slim chance the Wolfpack had.  I think Bracketbusters, even though there was only one headliner, ended up busting a few brackets after all.  (16 Bids)

That leaves these four conferences as POTENTIAL two-bid leagues if regular season champs don't win the conference tourney: Big West, MAAC, Ohio Valley, and Summit.  Long Beach State lost at Creighton, which may have eliminated them.  However, given that so many "bubble" teams have been sliding down or off the board, I won't eliminate the possibility of a top 40 RPI team getting in, even from a smaller conference.  And they've been so dominant in league play, it's tough to imagine they don't just take care of business in the conference tournament.  I already mentioned Iona's win over Nevada.  I think Iona deserves to be in just because their coaches all wear bow-ties.  Murray State whipped up on St. Mary's, which has to all but seal up a bid for them.  Oral Roberts probably won't get an at-large, but with an RPI in the top 50, a winning record against the RPI top 100, and 10 wins away from home, they have to get a long look by the Committee.  I think up to one of these teams will earn an at-large because they won't win their conference tournament.  (5 Bids)

My multi-bid leagues' locks are as follows (for additional info here is a link to my previous post http://mo-knows-sports.blogspot.com/2012/02/mos-field-of-68.html):

ACC: No changes.  4 Bids.

Atlantic 10: Only change is St. Joe's playing their way into consideration with 5 wins in their last 6 contests, including 3 road games.  2 Bids.

Big XII: K-State moves up into a "lock" with a win at Baylor on Saturday.  Big XII now guaranteed 5 bids.  Texas is in a more precarious position after their loss to Oklahoma State, but they immediately have a chance to remedy the situation with a game today against limping Baylor.

Big East: UConn is in a more fragile position after a blowout home-loss to Marquette, West Virginia is in a more solid one after a convincing win at Pitt, and Seton Hall lost at Cincy over the weekend which hurts Seton's position and helps Cincy.  Unfortunately, I think the 3 teams listed not named UConn get in for sure at this point (it's unfortunate because I don't think Cincy's resume is any better than most of the mid-major bubble teams, but at this point, it's safe to assume they're a lock), giving the Big East 8 Bids.

Big Ten: Purdue won its way to the right side of the bubble at Illinois, plus they have 5 top 50 wins.  With a lot of the mucky-mucks pushing for as many as 9 Big Ten teams, a finish at around .500 would seem to be enough to get the Boilermakers in.  Illinois may be on their way completely off the bubble, having lost 8 of their last 9 games and watched their RPI slide over 20 spots to the high 60's.  Minnesota lost their 4th game in their last 6 at Northwestern over the weekend, their RPI is dropping as well, and they still have games (read: potential losses) against Michigan State, Indiana, and at Wisconsin, plus the Big Ten tournament.  They could easily be 19-14 and 6-12 in Big Ten play.  Northwestern got a much needed win and still has chances to prove themselves at home against Michigan and Ohio State.  They'll need wins at both Penn State and feisty Iowa to stay in the hunt, especially if they drop both games to Michigan and the Buckeyes, but I think they can/will get enough done to get a bid, though I won't lock them in right now.  I think the fantasy of 75% representation from the Big Ten is quickly coming to an end thanks to Illinois and Minnesota's late collapses.  6 Bids.

CUSA: No change.  2 Bids.

Missouri Valley: No change.  2 Bids.

Mountain West: New Mexico, with their wins this week at San Diego State and at home against UNLV is in.  3 Bids, and only 3 Bids for the MWC.  Colorado State (loss at Boise State) and Wyoming (loss to interim-coach-coached Air Force) are done.  Although, Colorado State's win against Wyoming does keep them on the peripheral of the discussion.  The very peripheral.

Pac 12: Oregon would normally be out of the picture after blowing a late lead at Cal Thursday night, even with a win at Stanford over the weekend, but with so many other teams losing, there's still a chance for them.  I am going to go ahead and lock Cal in.  I think the Golden Bears are esentially on the cusp of clinching an at-large bid having won 5 straight Pac 12 games: they're 22-6 with an RPI in the top 30.  Arizona had a chance to make some noise with a win at Washington but fell short, leaving both of those two teams in that 64-72 range, and with a legitimate chance to get in.  Colorado continues to hang around the discussion, just one rung lower than Colorado State though.  But they a legitimate shot if they can win out (which would give them wins over Cal and at Oregon).  Anything short of that and they are out.  I still think the Pac is looking at Cal the only team to lock up 1 Bid.

SEC: No positive change: Ole Miss and Arkansas are probably completely out of the picture now.  Mississippi State is trying to pull an Illinois and go from sure-fire 7/8 seed to the bubble.  4 Bids.

West Coast: BYU's win at Santa Clara locks them into the tournament picture.  If they managed to lose at home to Portland AND in their first game of the WCC Tourney, they could mess it up, but I find that highly unlikely.  With so many other teams around them falling by the wayside, BYU winning 7 of 8, including 4 road contests, should be good enough to lock them in.  3 Bids.

By my count, that's 61 bids taken and a lot of competition for those last 7 bids, but not a lot of teams that seem to "want" it.  The list I'm still considering is: Xavier, St. Joe's, UMass, Miami, NC State, Connecticut, Northwestern, Minnesota, Illinois, Texas, UCF, Colorado State, Oregon, Arizona, Washington, Colorado, Alabama.  17 teams for 6 bids, unless there is a major upset in a multi-bid league's tournament, which would only reduce that number.

As of the time of this writing, my 7 picks would be (in a particular order!): Xavier, Alabama, Arizona, Texas, Northwestern, Connecticut, Miami.  That would put Texas, NW, UConn, and Miami in the play-in games.  I'm sure it will all look different next week, but I feel safe with my 61 called bids and 17 teams on the bubble fighting for the last 7 spots.

Big games this week to help clear up the picture:
Baylor at Texas (a chance to hook a bid for the Horns?)
Xavier at UMass (loser comes off the board)
Michigan at Northwestern (NW wins and I'll lock them in)
UNC at NC State (win and they could jump Miami)
New Mexico at Colorado State (CSU has a tough schedule, but lost ALL their tough games)
Michigan State at Minnesota (last chance for Minny)
Alabama at Arkansas (win and Bama is in)
Mississippi State at Alabama (Bama can help their seeding here too)
Illinois at Ohio State and Iowa at Illinois (one more loss, and I'll officially yank the Illini)
California at Colorado (Cal could move up to a single digit seed or Colorado could get a seat back at the table)