I had planned on writing a piece about Dave Rose and his success in February, but Greg Wrubell beat me to it. So, instead of in-depth analysis, I'll just point out a fun fact or two about February in the Dave Rose era.
February is Coach Rose's best month by winning percentage.
November: 84.6%
December: 80.0%
January: 75.0%
February: 85.4%
March: 62.9%
In 6 prior seasons as BYU's head coach, Dave Rose has had a better record in February than January in 5 of those seasons. I don't believe that historical trends have any real impact on the future in sports, but it is important to note that BYU tends to do better in February. Coach Rose seems to be able to get things rolling through February and conference play. Will the change in conference have an impact on that?
Of course, with that said, BYU absolutely better have an improved record in February this season. BYU has 5 games against the bottom half of the league and only 2 games against the top half (both against Gonzaga). So, at worst, BYU should be 5-2, which would still be worse than a 6-2 January, but I think that should be worst case scenario at this point. BYU better be at least 6-1 if it has aspirations for the NCAA Tournament.
Ever since I said this team could give just about anyone a run for their money in the NCAA Tournament, they have lost to Loyola Marymount and been smoked at home by St. Mary's, who is a legitimately good team, but so was Baylor. Given the make-up of this year's squad, the team is better suited for the NIT anyway. It's a young team. There are only 2 seniors. There are no players on the team that will leave to serve missions. Perhaps a run to Madison Square Garden is just the experience that this team will need to prepare for an NCAA Tourney run next year. Regardless, given that BYU is looking at a 10-seed, at best, even if it wins out, is an inevitable first round (or worse, a play-in game) loss better than 2-4 wins in the NIT? BYU does not have what it takes to beat a top 25 team at a neutral site this season, and playing a 5, 6, or 7-seed, that's essentially what BYU would be getting. That is just my opinion. Most of the teams in the NIT are pretty good teams, or at least provide quality competition, but BYU has a chance to advance while still getting a feel for the tournament environment.
What do you guys say? Would you rather see BYU lose in the first round of the NCAA Tournament or go to the Final Four of the NIT?
I tend to agree. This team seems talented enough to win big games, but hasn't put it together, like ever. Their best game of the season so far was against Baylor...in a loss. Defense has almost been as bad as BYU fans' behavior. Would I prefer the NIT over NCAA? Doesn't matter, the Cougars will hardly be considered for NCAA, so there is nothing to discuss. What I would like to see is the Cougars only lose one more game the rest of the season and at least get to the championship game of the WCC tourney. Show some fight and heart (by fight, I mean desire/passion, not fight). Good post, Mo.
ReplyDeleteI would rather go and get to the Q finals of the NIT which we could do. If we go to the NCAA we will lose in the first round. If by some miracle we win we will lose for sure in the second round.
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