BYU 2011-2012 Regular Season In Review

BYU went 24-7 overall, 12-4 in conference play, with 2 of those wins coming against Division II competition (so for RPI purposes, BYU is 22-7).  This was destined to be a rebuilding year with so many newcomers to the roster.  When put in that context, 24-7 and 12-4 are not bad marks.  However, after back-to-back 30 win seasons, there is a bit of a damper on a 24-win season (for BYU to win 30 before the season ends they would need to win the WCC Tourney and advance to the Elite 8).  Here is what I saw from this team.

THE PLAYERS
Seniors
Hartsock was the biggest revelation this season, scoring an additional 7 points per game this season compared to last.  Abouo improved his statistics across the board, though his impact seemed to have lessened, if that's possible.  It seems like last season, he was the difference in a couple of games with his athleticism and his ability to finish around the rim.  This year, the times he was the difference in a game it was a "bad" difference.

As far as senior leadership, this was a mixed bag.  BYU would not be 24-7 without Hartsock's emergence and dependibility.  No where was that more evident than at Gonzaga.  Game in Provo, Noah had 24 points and 14 rebounds, while holding Elias Harris to 7 points and 6 rebounds.  Game at the Kennel, without Noah, Elias Harris goes for 19 points and 16 rebounds.  In Provo with Hartsock, BYU shot 49%.  In Spokane without Hartsock, BYU shot 31%.

Imagine how much more depth this BYU team would have if James Anderson had returned for his redshirt senior season.  He certainly wasn't going to wow anyone, but he was a solid defender and this team could use another body in the post.  The loss at Gonzaga was really b/c BYU had no BODY in the middle with Hartsock out and Davies and Austin in a bit of foul trouble.

Juniors
The juniors this season were Davies, Cusick, Zylstra, Rogers, and Martineau.  Davies, when he has the eye of the tiger, has been virtually unstoppable.  It took him a little while to acclimate to the team.  He needed a couple of big environments to get going, but when he did, he couldn't really be contained.  He scored in double figures 18 of the last 19 games, going for 20+ in 7 of those 18, including each of the last three games, when BYU needed wins to have a chance for the conference title.  He had 7 double-digit rebounding games.  He led the team in charges taken.  He had 3 or more combined blocks and steals in 16 games.  His four worst offensive games of the year were all BYU blowout wins.  Davies was a man.  BYU will need his production this postseason and next season as well.

Cusick has been a bit hit and miss.  He valued the ball, never turning the ball over more than twice in a game.  He went 9-10 from three over a 6-game stretch of conference play and, for the season, was BYU's best 3-point shooter.  He didn't turn it over and he didn't take bad shots, but never made great plays: so he was the anti-Carlino.  He played good defense, particularly as the "off-guard" on top of the 2-3 zone.  I don't anticipate much change in his role next season.  He'll quietly give BYU a solid effort.

Zylstra is BYU's ultimate church ball player.  He scored in double figures 8 times.  In 8 blowout wins.  In BYU's 7 losses, he scored a combined 22 points on 23% shooting and 9% from three.  One could argue both sides: when he plays well, BYU dominates, when he plays poorly, BYU loses; or in games where BYU needed Zylstra, he sucked.  I would argue the latter: when the bright lights are on, he has oversensitive eyes.  BYU can't count on Zylstra another game this season, because they are all big games from here on out.  If he scores 10 points again, I'd be shocked.  They need someone else to step up or else BYU will lose and lose quickly.

Stephen Rogers has been out so much of this year, it's just unfortunate.  When he was healthy, early in the year, he was a big contributor to the team, going for 15 or more points in 4 out of 10 games, coming off the bench!  I truly believe his absence was the difference in the Baylor game.  If he had been healthy, this rebuilding year would have looked more like a reloading year.  Baylor, Loyola Marymount, or at Gonzaga easily could have flipped results, and if BYU were 27-4, they'd be looking at around a 5-seed in the tourney, instead of possibly playing against a 5-seed.  Hopefully he can get healthy in the offseason and have a chance to be a leader on next year's team, otherwise, BYU fans will be stuck with Zylstra.

Martineau has played sparingly his entire career, and this year was no different.  I don't suspect much will be different next year either.

Sophomores
Well, this list consists of Chris Collinsworth.  He played 12 minutes in two games before a second consecutive season-ending injury.  Too bad for him.

Freshmen
Matt Carlino, Anson Winder, Nate Austin, Damarcus Harrison, and Josh Sharp are the active freshmen on the roster.  Carlino and Winder were obviously starters, which shows just how much of a rebuilding year this was to have two freshmen in the starting lineup playing such significant roles.  Carlino makes the big plays, he has the drive to be a champion, but sometimes makes mistakes.  When he gets that killer instinct, he can make plays.  He reminds me a lot of Jimmer when he was a freshman.  If Carlino hangs around four years, he very well could be the next Jimmer in some form.  He has a long way to go, but so did Jimmer as a frosh.  One thing they have in common from their freshman campaigns: they look like they belong.

Winder is a typically inconsistent freshman, who is occasionally plagued by foul trouble and who only gets rolling offensively when he hits his first shot.  He is a great defender however, and BYU will need defense more than offense going forward in the WCC and, hopefully, NCAA Tournaments.

Nate Austin gave BYU a much-needed big man after Collinsworth went down.  Coach Rose had to be concerned, but Austin has played solid defensively, I would say by far BYU's most physical presence on defense, though he also has fouled out of way too many games, way too early (he has fouled out of 5 games without reaching the 20-minute mark).  He's also shown some range, though he had a few occasional issues in shot selection.  But hey, for an unheralded freshman backup C straight off a mission to shoot 56% isn't bad, even if that's 5-9!  I don't anticipate he'll fill in for Hartsock fully next year, but between Austin, Sharp, Rogers, and Harward there's potential to match the points and rebounds of a Hartsock.

Harrison never saw a shot he didn't like, but his 33% shooting indicates the rim doesn't return the affection.  He clearly has athleticism and plays good defense for a true frosh right out of high school.  His minutes have actually INCREASED in big games because of that.  If he could withstand the urge to shoot, he could have been a real asset for the team this year.  But he couldn't really be trusted to just focus on the defensive end without taking shots on the offensive side.  I think if he had a pass-first mentality this year, his minutes, and usefulness, would have increased dramatically.  There's definitely the potential there for a WCC Defensive Player of the Year by his junior year.

Sharp just needed some more time between the mission and guarding Elias Harris.  Well, and about 30 pounds.  If he hits the weights and figures out how to get coordinated, he could see significantly more playing time next season.  Honestly though, I don't expect much from him in the future.  I see him as the Nick Martineau of this freshman class: not quite good enough to see the floor but not quite so bad that fans get too stressed if he has to play in a pinch.

THE TEAM
I don't recall if I actually posted on this blog or not, but at work we do predictions for out teams and I had that BYU would finish at 25-6.  Really, the only losses I didn't anticipate in some fashion were losing to Baylor, Saint Mary's, and Loyola Marymount at home.  I figured BYU would win two of those and drop a road game, either at Loyola or San Francisco.  I thought BYU would finish 13-3 in conference play and finish second.  Again with the Loyola Marymount and Saint Mary's games.

I realize my expectations were probably a little high for a rebuilding year.  However, the fact that they nearly met them is a testament to the good work of Coach Rose.  He had to battle offseason changes in the coaching staff for the first time in his tenure (and clearly Dave Rice was a great coach, seeing what he has done with UNLV this year), significant injuries to significant players, a mid-season transfer, and a new conference schedule (and refs).  He went 6-1 in February, including 3 road wins.  He won 11 games away from the Marriott Center including BYU's first ever win at an ACC opponent.  He took on 5 teams from "Big Six" conferences, 4 away from home, and went 3-2.  He destroyed the likely WAC and Big Sky regular season champs.  It wasn't a great schedule, by any means, but in a rebuilding year, he took on a decent schedule and came out with a team that by most accounts will make the NCAA Tournament and could potentially threaten certain 5/6 seeds.

THE DISAPPOINTMENTS
The three losses at home have got to be first on the list.  The Marriott Center has been a nearly impregnable fortress, so to lose three has got to be a major disappointment.  Finishing third in the WCC is also right up there (though that is tied in with the three home losses).  Finally, the loss at Utah State, who ended up being a mediocre team from a mediocre conference.  Granted, at the time, the Aggies appeared to be formidable.  It was on the road in the first game of the season against an in-state rival.  BUT...those are the games BYU needs to win to move to that next level.  And, in fact, it is probably the biggest obstacle BYU has to making the NCAA Tournament.

THE HIGHS
To me, there were only a few games that showed me how good this particular BYU team can be.  The first was actually the loss to Gonzaga.  I do not believe in moral victories by any means, however, BYU played in one of the most difficult venues in the country, against a sure-fire NCAA Tournament team with a shot at a conference title on the line.  They did so without the services of their leading scorer Noah Hartsock (which came as a bit of a surprise to the team as he attempted to give it a go).  They were already down once-upon-a-November's 6th man Stephen Rogers.  They shot 31% overall and 21% from three.  Yet, they were a Brock Zylstra WIDE OPEN missed three with about 3 minutes left from cutting the lead to 4 and having a legitimate shot at pulling it off with all the momentum on their side.  That was a high for me, actually.  It means that this team can compete with solid competition, even when not playing its best ball.

Obviously, the home win against Gonzaga was big too.  A first-ever win at an ACC school, albeit a somewhat weak Virginia Tech team, was important for program credibility (a loss there and BYU is wondering if they'll get a 1 or a 2 seed in the NIT and not an 11/12 seed in the NCAA Tournament).  Really though, that was about it.  Who knew that the wins against Nevada and Oregon would end up being the 2nd and 3rd best wins BYU would have all season long.

Good year.  I expect even bigger things next season though!