Week 4 predictions

Was anybody really surprised South Carolina beat Ole Miss tonight? I sure wasn't. Two things preventing South Carolina from being a great team: 5 dropped interceptions in tonight's game and 3 field goals of less than 30 yards (meaning they aren't able to punch it in from inside the 10). One thing preventing Ole Miss from being a great team: they are still Ole Miss. Congrats to the Huskies, as well. It is a DIFFERENT feel in Seattle these days, you could see it in the LSU game and it can carry them for a little while, though I think they will likely fade a bit down the stretch: just don't quite have the depth this year. A good recruiting class and a couple of JC transfers can patch that up for next year.

Week 4:
Missouri over Nevada: 42-27. Should be a fun offensive affair. Remember the pre-season hype about Nevada? Remember some smart guy told you they weren't good?
Northwestern over Minnesota: 38-28. Winner of this game goes to 3-1, shows some progress for both of these programs. Too bad one of them has to lose.
Kansas over Southern Mississippi: 38-20. KU's biggest test to this point, but I think they pass because it shouldn't be tough for a team that has designs on contending for the Big 12 North.
Georgia Tech over North Carolina: 20-13. Georgia Tech has had some time to regroup, come up with a better offensive gameplan, and figure out how to cover the post route on D. UNC's defense is supposed to be its strength, but their discipline will be tested in this game.
Cincinnati over Fresno State: 45-35. Fresno always plays up on the road against BCS competition, but watching them at home against Boise State it's clear: emotion will only take you so far, you still have to be assignment-sound (especially on kickoff coverage!)
Boston College over Wake Forest: 24-17. Neither of these team's offenses have shown me much (granted I've only seen parts of one game for each). Wake's first road and conference game. BC, looking to rebound after a HORRID showing against Clemson last week, gets the win at home.
UNLV gets its first conference road win of the Mike Sanford era (it's only year 5 though...curb those expectations a bit, will ya) over Wyoming: 16-13. Neither one of these times have shown an ability to sustain long drives this year and both of them have shown pretty good defense. UNLV wins a battle of field goals.
Alabama over Arkansas: 38-24. Alabama is playing as well as anybody in the country, of course only three teams are really playing well (Florida and Texas being the other two: any guesses on the number of teams that will cycle through the top 25 this year? I'm guessing we'll see 40-50 teams in and out over the course of the season). Arkansas lost at home to a team not quite as good as Bama. Good luck on the road!
Virginia Tech wins as an underdog at home over Miami: 27-17. Miami has moved the ball well on two pretty bad defenses. Jacory Harris has looked all world, but it's easy when you have all day to throw and wide open receivers to throw to. He won't have either on Saturday. Va Tech's O needs to figure something out, but the D and special teams can make plays and score points too.
Clemson over TCU: 27-17. The final MWC tower comes crashing. I believe TCU can shut down Clemson's O most of the game, but when you have a guy like C.J. Spiller, all 11 defenders have to be on their toes for every single play. He'll eventually break a couple of big plays and the Horned Frogs go down. ACC flexes on the MWC for a second straight week.
Iowa State edges Army: 24-20. Army is back to the triple option, which will eat some clock and keep them in the game, but in the end, the Cyclones prevail.
Oregon over Cal: 34-27. Cal had its struggles last week at Minnesota. Oregon may have gotten this thing turned around after two straight home wins against one BCS team and a better non-BCS team. There are question marks for both teams, though Cal has looked like the better squad to this point. Jahvid Best disappeared at times for Cal during their game last week. He can't afford to be the invisible (Heis)man for too long this game or they won't win it. Cal OC Andy Ludwig craps out in the end, just like his former Utes did last week.
Oregon State over Arizona: 23-19. Not sure what to think about Zona yet. Maybe they lost to a good Iowa team last week, maybe they lost to a mediocre Iowa team. But I do know Oregon State lost at home to a Big East team. Ouch.
Speaking of Iowa...Penn State over Iowa: 34-21. Several people have Penn State on upset alert. I'm not buying into this Iowa team, having watch snippets of a couple of their games so far. Their running game is very impressive, but to get the Penn State crowd out of it, you need quick-strike capability, and they don't have it. I guess mounting a 14-running-play TD drive that eats up 10 minutes of clock could get the crowd out of it as well...don't see it. Nittany Lions avoid being the next top 10 team to lose.
Texas Tech nips Houston's BCS bid in the bud: 45-35. Texas Tech had a strong performance on the road at Texas. I'd expect them to play even stronger at Houston, since it isn't as tough a place nor as tough a team to play. Tech looks good. The biggest concern is the absolute lack of a running game, especially if you end up in inclement weather. Houston can score points with the best of them, but unfortunately you need some defense. Oh, and also, Tech is one of the best of them too.
Notre Dame gets a much needed road win at Purdue: 38-17. Notre Dame needs to make a big statement here. It's not enough to just get a win here, even Northern Illinois did that last week. This Purdue team is not very good so eking out a win doesn't impress people. You want to be a contender, you have to demolish inferior opponents and hope to beat one or two of the superior ones. Light it up or lights out on Weis' internship.
I like Washington, just not this week, not sure I like them next week either at Notre Dame. Stanford over UW: 24-13. I'm not confident that the D can play at the same level of intensity as it did last week, particular the front 7, which had a very noble effort against the Trojans. The O has moved the ball at times, but has struggled with consistency. Here, playing their first road game, I think Stanford comes away on top. Stanford looks improved as well. I think next year, both of these teams have a good shot to dethrone Cal/Oregon for biggest little brother in the Pac 1.

Utah over Louisville: 24-20. These teams are very similar: good defenses trying to carry fairly poor offenses. I read this week that Utah's D hasn't lived up to expectations: only if your expectations were unreal. They are weak against the run up the middle and on the long outside bomb. That is where teams are moving the ball on them. But that is about the only place opposing offenses have moved it on them. Considering the O is turning the ball over, the punting hasn't been great, and they really aren't a stellar unit to begin with, I'm kind of impressed. They are a good D, that will be able to hold opponents to under their season averages for points and yards, and that should be the expectation with this younger unit. They are giving up just over 20 points/game right now, which is just about what I said would happen this year. This is the only chance for the MWC to make a statement against the Big East, I think they get the W, though it won't exactly be a big statement that one of the Big Three playing at home barely edges the pre-season pick for last in the Big Least. The MWC isn't there yet. They are quickly closing the gap with the Big East, but realistically, they need a few more pretty good years to catch up fully.