Saturday, September 5, 2009

A few notes

We already had our first I-AA win over I-A: Temple lost to Villanova. I think we might get one more today.

It will be interesting to see how a couple of the games will play out today. 4 teams that I don't expect to see win, but I am interested to see how they play. Navy goes to Ohio State. I'm interested to see how their ball control, option attack works in Columbus. I want to see how the Buckeyes respond after losing Beanie. Will Pryor have a sophomore slump? I'm thinking if Navy can move the ball, win the time of possession battle, it'll actually be a half-decent game. Ohio State 24, Navy 10.

Washington begins the Sarkisian era of football with the daunting task of an SEC defense. Will they be able to put points on the board? As we saw with Oregon on Thursday, great offensive coordinators don't always make for high-scoring offenses once they become head coaches. Plus, it's LSU where defense reigns supreme. The trip from Baton Rouge to Seattle is as far as LSU has ever gone for a game (I don't there is anywhere in the continental US that COULD be further). A little jetlag? LSU 27, Washington 20 (closer than the experts think).

Nevada takes an explosive offense to South Bend, but they don't have the horses to get in a shootout with the Irish. I know a lot of people have put Notre Dame on upset alert but Nevada is a bit over-hyped by a lot of people. You have to play some defense, even in the WAC. I would like to see how the offense works on the road against a quality D, a D with some size and speed. I think they can score some points, it's tough to keep a spread O with a mobile QB down ALL day. Notre Dame 31, Nevada 24 (late touchdown to make it look close).

BYU brings a beaten up, and green, offensive line into Jerry-Mahal against one of the great programs in the country. OU isn't doing so great themselves, replacing a lot of O-linemen, wideouts, and with All-American TE Gresham on the sidelines in street clothes. But there is a difference between OU having to replace guys and BYU having to replace guys. But I would take BYU's defense RIGHT NOW without a snap having been taken over BYU's defense at the end of last season. There is some improvement, especially at LB, leadership, and speed in the secondary. Last year's BYU D couldn't have held OU under 60. I think this D can hold them to 7 scores or less, a feat which only two teams did last season. Offensively, I do expect BYU to be able to move the ball a little bit. Hall will need to spread the ball around. The line will need to give the wideouts enough time to get open so Hall can find them. Defensively, the DBs will have to actually cover somebody. The front 7 will need to get pressure on Bradford AND hold down the running game. The first game, offenses are still adjusting to game speed, so that also works in BYU's favor (except that their game speed is OU's practice speed). Don't get me wrong: BYU COULD win the game, if everything went perfectly. It's one great team against a good team, and anything can happen on the field since it starts 0-0 and all you have to do is score more than your opponent. But they won't win it: too big a stage, too fast a team. Oklahoma 38, BYU 24.

Couple other games today:
Va Tech over Bama, 17-10 (fantastic defensive game)
Georgia over OK State, 31-24. Georgia speed on D forcing bad decisions/turnovers, OK State O based on timing and precision, it won't be there just yet.
Florida over Charleston Southern 70-3.
Illinois over Missouri 31-27.
Nebraska over Florida Atlantic 35-24, in a surprisingly close game.
Texas A&M over New Mexico 20-13.
Cal over Maryland big: 38-17.
UCLA over SDSU 13-10, low-scoring hard-hitting game. Doesn't sound quite right, does it?
Kansas over Northern Colorado 55-3.
Iowa over Northern Iowa 24-21: the Panthers give the Hawkeyes a scare and a half.

1 comment:

  1. Well, with a couple notable exceptions, we didn't do too well on our predictions this week. Let's pick it up a little bit. You are still too sold on the Big 10, let's make that big ten. Picked several games wrong and predicted too high or two low scores on others. Well, it's early yet, first game of the season.

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