Mo's Predicted Conference Standings: Sun Belt and MAC

Happy Realignment Day everyone!  Every year on July 1st, we get to celebrate teams selling out for more money, better competition, or getting out of a bad situation for a less bad situation.  So...yeah!

Now, I have put together my predictive model for the 2013 season.  There are clearly a few flaws in it, but overall, I think it does a good job quantifying my gut with two major exceptions.  First, it doesn't do a great job evaluating those teams that tend to play better than the sum of their parts such as: the service academies, Boise State, BYU, and, more recently, Vanderbilt.  Air Force is the smallest team in Division I football every season.  Navy never gets better than a 2-star recruit.  Yet these two teams are consistent bowl teams.  Army isn't quite up to that level, but they typically get 2-4 wins when conventional wisdom would say they should get beat every game...second, I don't feel it properly adjusts for conference realignment.  Some teams are better set-up to thrive in new conference surroundings (see Texas A&M's hurry-up, wide open, SEC hasn't seen anything like it offense) while others are destined for failure (see Utah's inability to recruit any depth on the offensive side of the ball in an offensive-minded league).

Without further ado, here is what the model predicts in terms of standings for non-BCS leagues:

Sun Belt:
1. Louisiana-Lafayette
2. Louisiana-Monroe
3. Western Kentucky
4. Arkansas State
5. Troy
6. Texas State
7. Georgia State
8. South Alabama
Thoughts: No one really cares about the Sun Belt outside of the Sun Belt, I get that.  But...Louisiana is one of the more fun teams in the country to watch.  I think their fan base is where the inspiration for Water Boy came from...

MAC West:
1. Northern Illinois
2. Toledo
3. Ball State
4. Central Michigan
5. Western Michigan
6. Eastern Michigan
MAC East:
1. Bowling Green
2. Ohio
3. Kent State
4. Buffalo
5. Miami (OH)
6. Akron
7. Massachusetts
Thoughts: Northern Illinois could be poised to have another great season.  On paper, they are significantly better than everyone on their schedule, with road games at Purdue and Toledo being the only difficult challenges.  If they managed a 12-1 or 13-0 season, would they be rewarded with a BCS berth?  Or will voters remember last season's debacle in the BCS?  My model ranks NIU's schedule as the 2nd easiest schedule of any team in the country.  The only team with an easier schedule?  Old Dominion!  And they are transitioning to an FBS school over the next two years and play 7 FCS schools...13-0 should be expected.  Even that might not be enough to warrant a BCS bid, honestly...