Mo's Predicted Conference Standings: CUSA and MWC

Be sure to chime in on the polls on the right hand side of the page.

CUSA East:
East Carolina
Middle Tennessee
Marshall
UAB
Southern Mississippi
FAU
FIU

CUSA West:
Rice
Tulsa
North Texas
UTSA
Louisiana Tech
Tulane
UTEP
Thoughts: This is really the first place where I disagree with my model.  My "gut" would put Middle Tennessee in 4th in the East below UAB, but my model really likes them in their first year stepping out of the Sun Belt into CUSA.  With that said, I'm not sure CUSA will ever field a relevant team again after losing its best teams to the AAC.  Rice is a potential sleeper coming out of the West.  My model actually puts them within a TD at Texas A&M, they host Tulsa, and they avoid ECU in crossover action.  ECU has 5 games that the model says will be decided by 5 points or less.  If they go 5-0 in those games, perhaps there could be a battle of ranked opponents in the CUSA title game.

MWC West:
1. Fresno State
2. San Jose State
3. San Diego State
4. Nevada
5. UNLV
6. Hawaii

MWC Mountain:
1. Utah State
2. Boise State
3. Colorado State
4. Air Force
5. Wyoming
6. New Mexico
Thoughts: Again, my model doesn't seem to "penalize" teams switching conferences where competition will be significantly more difficult.  Utah State and San Jose State both had great seasons last year, switched to better conferences, and lost their coaches.  Only 1 of those 3 would point to a successful 2013 campaign.  My model likes both of those teams though.  I believe CSU is a potential surprise team this year, as does my model, but if I were a betting man, I'd trust Air Force to finish ahead of them in the standings.  I'd also put money on Hawaii climbing out of the cellar ahead of UNLV.
The model puts Fresno at 12-0, but with narrow wins against Rutgers, Boise, at SJSU, and at SDSU.  Utah State has 5 games that should be within a TD (including the game at USC), if they can pull off 3 or 4 of those, it could be a special season in Logan.  My gut says 1 or 2 is closer to reality.  The model gives them 3 wins, with the Utah game a 1-point loss and the Boise State game a 2-point win (i.e. toss-ups).