Pac 12 North:
1. Stanford
2. Oregon
3. Oregon State
4. Washington
5. Washington State
6. California
Pac 12 South:
1. Arizona State
2. USC
3. Arizona
4. Utah
5. UCLA
6. Colorado
South Issues:
I would say the Pac 12 South is where I most disagree with my statistical model, and even then, it's not a big beef, really. I just don't see Arizona State winning the South. I also don't see UCLA finishing 5th (in actuality they are tied for 4th with Utah but the model predicts Utah to beat them at home even though UCLA is the better team). I understand why the model projects these things: USC isn't going to be USC (I feel it in my Kiffin-hating bones and the model backs that up), Arizona State gets its toughest intra-division games at home, and UCLA has a brutal schedule packed with 5 conference road games, all against teams on par with or better than the Bruins (they also have a 6th, and non-conference, road game against Nebraska that falls under that category as well).
USC has a respectable season but drops the crucial South-deciding game at Arizona State. Arizona State then loses the Pac 12 title game by double digits. Colorado is NOT going to a bowl game; I do not think so, and the model certainly agrees. The model gives them 2 wins, but I believe they pull off one upset (sadly, the model would call a season-opening win against Colorado State an upset). Honestly, I'm thinking they can get to 3 or 4 wins this year on their way to bowl eligibility next season. Where they go from there will depend a lot on where the Arizona schools go...somebody has to rise to perennial third fiddle from 2015-2017, and it's going to be Colorado or one of the Zonas, unless Utah can find an offense. And a defense.
North Thoughts:
Stanford and Oregon are both unbeaten heading into their week 11 Thursday night matchup, which Stanford wins at home. Stanford goes on to win at USC the following week and beats a top 10 Notre Dame team (this is my model speaking, not me, I don't personally believe that ND does that well) in its 12th game en route to a Pac 12 Championship game (and ultimately a National Championship game) appearance.
I'd like to think Washington would be better this year, but the harsh reality is that it's tough to win on the road in almost any venue in the Pac 12 and Washington has several tough road games including Stanford, Arizona State, and Oregon State. They have lost to both Stanford and Oregon every season since 2007. I think NEXT year they can beat Stanford again, but they will not beat either team this year. All signs, for me, point to next year being Washington's year. They might arrive a season early and pull off a stunner this season, but I'd be willing to bet that next year they can win the North, even with 5 Pac 12 road games slated for 2014.
The Enigmatic Utes:
Utah continues to hang out in that 4/5 the South after squandering a chance to win the South in 2011 and last season taking their best team since the Sugar Bowl win to a 5-7 record. They need a breakout season soon if this realignment gig is going to work for them in any way besides a nice pay day. Going INTO last season I thought that was their best chance to do it from a quality-of-team standpoint, but the schedule didn't align well for them and it spiraled out of control after early season struggles. The schedule lays out much better this year for them to do it with their first 3 Pac 12 games at home and two very winnable games on the road (Arizona and Washington State), though the team doesn't appear to be any better than last year's 5-7 team.
With that said, I think they are too much of a gimmick offense to succeed in the Pac 12 (something I've stated about their ability to be consistent since Whit took over). They haven't been able to consistently run the ball for a few years now (Ute fans will argue SEASON stats with me), but last year they had 5 games where they rushed for 3.0 yards/carry or less, which, in my mind for the Utes, is equivalent to the Mendoza line in baseball. Their OL size and talent combined with the speed and power at RB make that inexcusable for them, in my opinion. The total stats look good last season but that was bolstered by "pile on" games against Northern Colorado, Cal, Washington State, and Colorado. They also are breaking in 3 new starters on the OL this season. That won't help. Neither will yet another offensive coordinator. I believe this is the 7th OC in 8 years under K-Whit.
Defensively, we'll see how the pass defense is. Utah used to have a dominant pass defense in the MWC, and it wasn't JUST the competition. For anyone to get 200 yards against them, they had to pass 35-40 times. Last season, only 4 teams FAILED to reach 200 yards. Three teams exceeded 300 yards, with 2 of them averaging over 10 yards per ATTEMPT. This season, they break in 3 new starters in the secondary who have minimal experience and whose backups have NO experience.
Like I said, the schedule is kinder this season. They have 3 uphill battles in conference play (Stanford, at USC, at Oregon), but the other 6 games are winnable, even if Utah is not favored in most of those games. The model predicts an upset win over UCLA, but the only other Pac 12 games it likes the Utes in are the final two (after a 5-game losing streak) at Washington State and the season finale against Colorado.
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