Mo's Predicted Conference Standings: Big Ten

Leaders Division:
1. Ohio State
2. Wisconsin
3. Penn State
4. Indiana
5. Purdue
6. Illinois

Legends Division:
1. Nebraska
2. Michigan State
3. Northwestern
4. Michigan
5. Minnesota
6. Iowa

In terms of expectations for the Legends Division, I think most people would flip Michigan and Michigan State.  The model really likes Sparty's experience, offensive line, and easy schedule.  Sparty gets a bye before starting Big Ten play at Iowa, Indiana, Purdue, and at Illinois.  That lends itself to a very likely 4-0 start before a rivalry game at home against Michigan.  The Spartans then get a bye before traveling to Nebraska, which the model calls the only Big Ten loss for Sparty.  It's not just that the model likes Michigan State, but it doesn't like Michigan.  Michigan's schedule is difficult and I think it'll prove too difficult to finish 2nd in the Legends, where most media and coaches have the Wolverines.  They play road games at Penn State, Michigan State, and Northwestern and also get Ohio State and Nebraska at home.  My model doesn't like the Wolverines in any of those games (though a few of them are toss-ups).

Looking at the Leaders Division, I don't think my model says anything outstanding.  Ohio State is the clear favorite.  Wisconsin and Penn State are roughly equivalent for the #2 spot, but Wisconsin hosts NW and Penn State, which is ultimately the difference between Wisconsin and Penn State.  Both teams travel to Ohio State, but Penn State has to play Nebraska, Michigan, and Minnesota from the Legends Division, where Wisconsin gets NW, Minnesota, and Iowa.

Indiana hosts Purdue and a win there gives Indiana the 4-spot.