65 predictions, #14 Mountain West Conference

Well, today is the day that most of you loyal readers care about: Mountain West Conference predictions. So I will go into a little more detail on this than I have been doing.

1: TCU. To me, it's really a toss-up as to who wins the BYU-TCU game, but the winner of that game will be the conference champion (either outright or by virtue of a tie with the loser of the game). Based on how TCU demoralized, dominated, decimated, pick your 'd' word, BYU last year, you have to think that TCU has the edge RIGHT NOW, but a lot can happen in the next 2 months. I don't believe the conference champion will go undefeated in conference play, but I do believe they will only have 1 loss. TCU is just a good football team. Fast, hard-hitting defense. Brilliant return game. Solid kicker and punter. Multi-year (and mobile) starter at QB surrounded by fast WRs and RBs with an O-line that, while undersized, has been pretty steady over the years. They have two early road games against ACC opponents: Virginia and Clemson. They get Utah at home. They shouldn't be any worse than 10-2 this season (maybe 9-3), and I think 11-1 gives them a realistic shot at a BCS game.

2: BYU. They have won 18 straight home games. I think with Florida State, Colorado State, Utah State, TCU, Air Force, and Utah at home this season, their streak probably ends (I believe all 6 of those teams will go to bowl games, but it may only be 5). If they manage to go 6-0 at home this year, though, you are looking at a conference champion and a BCS bowl-bound team. Last year they had two main problems down the stretch: tunnel vision by QB Max Hall and no leadership (or pass rush, or coverage for that matter) on defense. This year, there is no Austin Collie to stare down and throw to every time in crucial situations, so he'll likely be forced to spread it around, like he did the first half of last season. Though, McKay Virgil Jacobson could emerge as a Collie-like player. He is faster than Collie but also smaller. I see the defense having a lot more leadership, particularly at LB. Clawson is a year older, Hooks is healthy, Baumann and Doman have another year under their belts. At free safety, Scott Johnson is miles ahead of what Kellen Fowler was last year in terms of leadership. They have also changed a couple of guys' positions, which will help the D a lot: Johnson from CB where he was too slow to FS, So'oto from OLB to DE where he'll have opportunities to get to opposing QBs more, Pendleton from safety to OLB. This season the D has more leaders, more speed, harder hitters, more toughness, a better pass rush, etc. This looks more like a Bronco Mendenhall defense than last year, but, hey, when you don't have the personnel, you don't have the personnel. The non-conference schedule is a lot tougher, but their toughest conference games are all at home. I could see them finishing as bad as 9-3 or 8-4, but at 11-1 I believe they would be BCS-bound over Boise State and 12-0 would put them in the National Championship discussion.

3: Air Force. The "obvious" pick here is Utah, but the Falcons have shown more consistency than Utah over the past 4 years. They have certainly been the model of consistency the past two with Troy Calhoun at the helm. His option offense has some spread wrinkles no other option offense in history has had. He also knows how to utilize his talent. He has the right players at the right places. They are smart, disciplined, and most teams struggle in preparation for them. I believe they continue to surprise this season, even though they lost some key personnel from their defense. I'm not sure if they can beat Utah in Salt Lake, but I do believe they beat them in the standings. I think around 8 wins for the Falcons

4: Utah. I truly believe this might be giving Utah a break. The schedule is tough: they visit CSU, UNLV, TCU, and BYU. The only tough conference game they get at home is Air Force, who beat Utah at Utah the last time they went there. Also remember that Utah won 5 games by 7 points or fewer last year and there are 3 MAJOR differences from last year's team. 1) They lost 8-9 starters on offense (depending on who you count as starters), including a 5th-year senior QB who started for 3 seasons. 2) They lost King Louis, the best kicker/punter in the country. 3) They lost 3 defensive players to the NFL and 1 3-year starter DB to graduation.
1) They will be starting a true freshman at QB. Name me a true freshman QB who came in and started, leading his to a conference title in year one? McCoy didn't win a conference title. Tebow didn't even start as a frosh, though he played significant minutes. And Jordan Wynn is no McCoy or Tebow. They also lost a solid back in Mack, though Asiata, who split duties with him is back. There is no solid back-up to Asiata. The WRs got decimated by graduation, as did the OL. This isn't Oklahoma where last year's backups could be this year's All-Americans.
2) Sakoda kept Utah in games with his ability to flip field position and nail field goals with uncanny accuracy. Field position and an automatic 3 points was definitely the difference in two 13-10 conference victories and the 31-28 win over Oregon State. There just aren't very many Louie Sakoda's out there.
3) Some teams can lose 3 NFL-caliber defensive players and not miss a beat. Non-BCS teams, including two-time BCS buster Utah, do not fall into that club: they don't have the depth. While the defense will be good this season, that is a lot to lose. The D would have to be spectacular to make up for the losses on O and special teams. Also of note here, the man they are counting on to shore up the D-Line (Koa Misi) got injured yesterday and the extent of his injury is unknown (update: he is out indefinitely, and the type of injury cannot be discussed, which is usually not a good sign). If they lose him for any significant amount of time, their D-line will be hurting, despite how deep Coach Whit says they are. That puts them down to 2 defensive players that made the preseason all-conference team. Again, that's a sign of a solid but not spectacular defense. I'll give them 8 wins but 7 isn't unlikely (and even 6 is possible if Utah State successfully stops the run game).

5: New Mexico. I think they will be the surprise of the conference this season. They had a down year last season due to injuries. New Mexico always has toughness on D and playmakers on O, their biggest problem is a lack of size on the O and D lines, which impacts them in the non-conference against BCS teams and in conference against Utah and BYU with their mammoth lines (it also wears them down, leaving them open to a late-season slide). I think Coach Locksley brings a new enthusiasm and excitement to the Lobos that former head coach (and current SDSU defensive coordinator) Rocky Long may have lost last season. I don't think they are as talented as they were two years ago on their way to 9 wins, but they can make up for that with energy and toughness. I expect them to lose to all of the teams ahead of them in the standings and beat all those below them for a 4-4 record in conference, that would put them at 5-6 total wins on the season.

6: Colorado State. There are some questions with the QB situation, certainly. But Coach Fairchild is a QB coach by trade and he'll get things settled there. The O-Line is experienced and the running game can carry the load for a while. CSU always seem to have one future NFL WR on the roster too. The D also returns a few playmakers. They are a solid team. If they can upset CU in the season-opener, that would do a lot for confidence and probably move them up into the top half of the conference. The fact that I have them at 6 means I don't think they'll pull off the upset. I'll say they still get 6 wins though.

7: UNLV. I think they will have a strong start to the season but will fade down the stretch. Sanford hasn't figured out how to keep the guys primed for conference play in October and November. They might get to 6 wins this year, but it will be a stretch. They should be good, returning several key offensive players, but I just can't see them getting over the hump: I'll believe it when I see it. If Omar Clayton realizes the potential he showed at QB last season, this could be a "special" year for the Rebels, 8 wins and a top 4 finish in the conference. My gut just tells me he'll get hurt early in the year trying to make too many plays with his feet and the Rebels may not recover. 5 wins again.

8: Wyoming. They have a solid defense. They have a great offensive mind at the head coaching spot. If they can pull it all together, they can surprise. I am just not sure the offense can pull it together right now. The QBs actually regressed during last season. Maybe a new up-tempo, no-huddle offense can right the ship, but I'm going to give them a year to get things straightened out. Look for them to be very competitive next season, once the O catches up to the D. 4-5 wins.

9: San Diego State. Another team that has the potential to have a decent showing in the conference this season, but probably won't. They have a lot of speed, some very good coaches, and beautiful weather down there in SoCal. I think the MWC will look more balanced this year than usual, there are some wins available for the teams at the bottom. Unless teams like SDSU, New Mexico, and Wyoming can play respectable in the non-conference though, it won't matter how balanced it looks to a Mountain West Conference fan. I think the Aztecs could get 4 wins this year, but 3 isn't out of the question. I'm sure they can't wait for basketball season down there...

Potential Sleepers: New Mexico, Colorado State (not much being said about these two, who may have something to say about the conference title when all is said and done: not by winning it but by knocking off contenders/pretenders).
Over-hyped by the Media: Utah, UNLV (they are very high on these two, I'm not: then again, they get paid to give their opinions...).
Team I'm most likely wrong about: New Mexico (they could finish 9th just as easily).
Team I know I'm right about: BYU (they will finish in the top 2, barring injury to Max Hall, of course).
Coach most likely gone at the end of the season: Sanford at UNLV, especially if he finishes where I predicted (7th).
Coach most likely to get a raise at the end of the season: Patterson at TCU, especially if they go BCS bowling. What he has done in his decade at TCU is outstanding, as he has won conference titles in 3 different conferences and won 10 games half a dozen times. His teams have not performed well in the spotlight though, something he'll need to remedy this year since they are the favorite to win the MWC (I'm not the only person saying that).
Person most likely to hate my prediction: James Thomas, Utah alum, but great guy and I overlook that major flaw and love him anyway.
Person most likely to enjoy my prediction: my dad, who is a BYU fan but eternal pessimist, will like seeing such a credible person peg BYU for number two in the MWC.