Friday, January 2, 2009

The Big One for Mid-Majors

Well, it's time to find out how good Utah really is. Or if Alabama will still be motivated, even though it's not the National Championship game.
I think both teams are actually a little overrated, with Utah being the more overrated of the two. Alabama benefited from an easy non-conference schedule, a fairly weak SEC West, and from getting a relatively light SEC East slate. To win at LSU and at Georgia is no small feat, and certainly doing both in one season is something to be applauded, but, let's be honest, the SEC this year wasn't the SEC of years past. Alabama is a year ahead of schedule, so a win here vaults them in to next year as a very legitimite national title contender.
Utah, on the other hand, had a decent non-conference slate and the conference was better than it ever has been. They struggled mightily to move the ball against the better of the defenses they played. They got outgained by Wyoming, outplayed by TCU and Oregon State, and nearly outmanned by Michigan in the second half. BUT...they found a way to win every game this season, where Alabama did not. That takes moxey (and King Louie). Utah is right on schedule, a win here completes the dream season, and prepares them for two/three decent seasons and then to make another run in 4 years with a stellar BCS-game recruiting class.
I think Alabama is strong where Utah is weak. Utah is strong where Alabama is weak. I think the speed of Utah keeps them in the game, but the muscle of Alabama ultimately gives them the victory. Yes, that's what I said, the Mountain West team's team speed will give them a chance against a soon-to-be SEC powerhouse. I don't think either team wants to get in a shoot-out, but that would benefit Utah because of their more wide-open attack. However, I'm not sure Utah can get in a grind it out type of game and expect to win: unless it's within 8 points in the final 2 minutes, and then Alabama can kiss the game good bye!
Anyway, I think the Tide rolls tonight: Alabama 27, Utah 17.

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