Break

BYU is not an NCAA tournament team, no way, no how. I learned a few things about BYU tonight. They only really go 6 deep, maybe 7. MacGregor and Anderson are only good for the 10 fouls they can pick up at the 5 spot. Abouo isn't trustworthy in a tight spot, Archie is a liability on offense, and no one else on the team has seen significant minutes in any major game this season. You've got the starting 5 and Lamont Morgan. The lack of depth leads to a lot of fouls late in the game, a lot of offensive rebounds given up, and a lot of shots falling short down the stretch. Lee Cummard and JT trade off carrying the team. Tonight was Lee Cummard's turn. But even he disappeared in the second half.

They cannot win a close game. Whether it's missed free throws, jacking up ill-advised shots, the inability of anybody to put the ball on the floor and create (and turning it over when they try), or the lack of defensive stops in the final two minutes/OT (tonight it was all four), something always prevents them from pulling out close games. The only time BYU wins a close game is when they blow a big lead, but the lead was too big to overcome, so they win by 5 or 6. I've said this to a few people and still maintain that if BYU does not lead by more than 12 in the second half, they will lose the game. 12 is the magic number, watch for it, and count on it.

BYU might have some success in the NIT, and I believe they will end up there, that's where they belong this season. At the absolute best, they finish the season 8-2 down the stretch. You can count on losses at San Diego State and at UNLV. So they have to win every other game (at TCU, at Wyoming, and home games against New Mexico-who beat them by 19, and Utah) to even reach that mark. I think they go 7-3 (worst case 6-4), win a game in the conference tourney, and bow out in the second round (assuming chalk in the first round, i.e. all the favorites win), putting them at 22-9. That gets them a home game or two in the NIT. They lose either the second home game or the first road game (whatever the second game happens to be).

Bronco and Dave Rose failed to meet expectations this season. With football it was the lack of playmakers on defense. With basketball it's the lack of playmakers on offense. I don't know if it's coaching, recruiting (also a failure in coaching) or what, but the upper-classmen have not exhibited the leadership abilities a team needs to be successful. I hope this isn't a trend and it was just a bad year for BYU sports. Coming in to the season they were the only Division I team to win back-to-back conference championships in both football and basketball. They had better get back to their winning ways next year, or else they are in trouble. Their football recruiting class has only 3 DBs (2 safeties and only one corner-at 5'10"), so no help to the pass defense there. Their basketball recruiting class has one potential Lee Cummard and 3 potential James Andersons, so no help on the athleticism side there. Dark times ahead, and that's not even talking "stimulus" packages that won't actually stimulate anything until 2012 (geez, I hope we're out of the recession by then-we will be if FDR Jr. doesn't screw everything up and turn the recession into a depression). Everyone else is getting better, you better respond.