The Big One (at least in the non-BCS)

There are so many dynamics to the TCU-Utah game it's tough to figure out how it'll play out, but you are here because you want to read what I think.

Utah's "big-game" ability has been uncanny over the past 5 years. They have won 3 straight week day games in the regular season, dating back to last year. They have won the last two over TCU, both on Thursday nights. Advantage Utah.

TCU has made as many (or more) "statements" than any other team in the conference since joining the Mountain West, tallying 3 wins against ranked opponents (2 of them teams ranked in the top 10 at the time). Utah is 1-3 against ranked teams over the same span. As a side note, BYU is 0-5. Advantage TCU.

We'll call the defenses a wash (I don't think they are, but we'll call it that). TCU has the advantage on offense (consistency and turnovers). Utah has the advantage in special teams (pinning people deep, blocking punts, kicking through the end zone, field goals automatic inside 60 yards, punt return is a liability though). TCU wants to prove that the real Horned Frogs are the team that dominated BYU and not the one that lost to Oklahoma before the second quarter started. Utah wants to prove it is...well, they haven't had any games against competition like Oklahoma or BYU to measure against (I am not saying BYU is great competition, I am saying they are better than anyone on Utah's schedule to this point).

So what is the difference? TCU has taken it away 26 times (2.6 per game). Utah has given it up 16 times (1.8 per game). Utah has been better at RES turning it over only 5 times in 4 home games but two of those have been returned for TDs. TCU has had 12 takeaways in 5 road games thus far. Huge advantage TCU, in a game where momentum is key.

Throw in a little home field advantage for Utah, who will set a school record for most sellouts in a season this year, with 3 (Oregon State, TCU, and BYU).

Utah has been inconsistent on offense for 7 of their 9 games this season. They seem to lack an identity, a direction, or anything resembling like a team that knows what they're doing, i.e. a senior laden bunch. Also, they are averaging 4.3 punts per game. Compare that to other top 10 teams: Oklahoma and Alabama are the only other ones averaging even over 3.5 punts/game. Of course, TCU hasn't been any better, punting 4.8 times per game. Granted they played two games in atrocious weather conditions that account for 16 of their 48 punts (33% of punts coming in 20% of games): the weather forecast calls for cold, but not rain. But TCU punting may be their best offense: have you watched Utah's punt returners? They are lucky to keep the ball at all, and they certainly count their lucky stars if they IMPROVE field position with a return.

As most gutless politicians do, I will go with the polls: you said that TCU wins big, I'll agree with you. I think if TCU can absolutely shut down a consistent offense in BYU (and Oklahoma for 3 of 4 quarters-100 yards less than OU's season average), they shouldn't have too many problems keeping a turnover-prone, penalty-getting, pass-dropping, big-play reliant, inconsistent Utah squad from scoring but 2 or 3 times. I said last week, Utah couldn't settle for field goals in the red zone: they got a field goal, a touchdown, and a turnover in three trips inside the 20. This week, they have to take advantage of EVERY chance in the red zone (3.3 points per trip won't cut it), because they may not get very many opportunities. TCU's offense shouldn't have too much trouble scoring either, even against Utah's D: Utah gave up 23 to a bad Michigan offense, 23 to an Air Force team that only dropped 16 on Army, 21 to Weber State of the FCS, 28 to a 5-3 Oregon State squad, and 7 to Wyoming who is averaging only 4 points per game against teams with winning records (take out the Utah game and it drops to 3). Prediction: TCU 34, Utah 13. It won't be as ugly as the BYU game, thanks to King Louie, but it won't be fun for Utah fans, players, and coaches. TCU jumps Boise State in the BCS rankings for the top non-BCS spot after this weekend. That's bad pub for the WAC.